Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The way this winter has shown it's hands seems pretty clear. To hope or count on a huge turn to snowy just doesn't seem very likely. A winter like last year for a couple weeks would be fun. But I hope folks aren't thinking coastal after coastal are going to show up. Go with persistence until proven wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 He's not going to be at Walmart..lol. And who knows, this could be the one time in the next 10 winters where it doesn't work. As I stated before, it's sort of refreshing to see as a meteorologist. It proves we may not understand the atmosphere as we think and mother nature simply doesn't give a sh*t about Siberian snowpack. The atmosphere is extremely chaotic and sometimes as humans, we think we may have the magic bullet at times.....and then mother nature throws a chocolate cream pie at our face. I like it, it reduces some of the arrogance in the field...and it brings us back to the drawing board so we can learn from our mistakes. That how science evolves. Well, that's the line I like to use ever since one of my fellow attorney's got disbarred....a month after he was disbarred he was putting on happy faces on the little kids when they used to do that at Walmart, and since attorneys have doctorates, it fits! But I agree 100% with what you're saying. It is wayyyy too complicated unfortunately, but we (I) should have learned after last year when every indices said the MA would get skunked, we had a great year (for us.) Notwithstanding, I expect you'll still be dealing with plenty of arrogance in the field. Call it a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 doesn't 75% of your Snow fall from Jan 25th on? There are a heckuva lot of assumptions being made with good signals across the spectrum coming up and a heckuva lot of winter left. Pretty sure Dr Cohen said Mid January on,if he's a week off that's still pretty stout forecasting. idk know about that one.....maybe DC NOV-MAR, BWI averages .4"/3"/6.8"/8"/1.9" respectively, and a few FEB blizzards are the reason for the FEB number I think what Kevin says is right....this one just doesn't smell so great it can be saved if the good pattern, assuming it actually appears, delivers but down here, in an OK year, a marginal patterns can produce; but this year, aside from 1 lowly clipper, nada, and with nothing of consequence to track, meaning it hasn't even been close geographically speaking so all things considered, we've come closer to actually getting snow in our worst years than what we've had this year, and that is just not a good sign period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I've been hearing that all season...."ridging into AK"....plenty of cold and chances". I think we just need help from the Atl. Or we will risk cutters in this pattern....like you said we are better off with that one eyed monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The way this winter has shown it's hands seems pretty clear. To hope or count on a huge turn to snowy just doesn't seem very likely. A winter like last year for a couple weeks would be fun. But I hope folks aren't thinking coastal after coastal are going to show up. Go with persistence until proven wrong Or we will risk cutters in this pattern....like you said we are better off with that one eyed monster Great analysis guys, but please state the model you are referencing when posting in the model discussion thread. It makes it easier for everyone to read and follow along. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Great analysis guys, but please state the model you are referencing when posting in the model discussion thread. It makes it easier for everyone to read and follow along. Thanks! Reality model...runs everyday for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nice snowstorm at the end of the para run. Thats all we have lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nice snowstorm at the end of the para run. Thats all we have lol It cuts on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nothing but cold and dry as far as the eye can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nothing but cold and dry as far as the eye can see We warm up a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We warm up a bit too. I knew you'd respond to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Matt Lanza @mattlanza 19m 19 minutes ago End of the Euro ensemble looks about as good as anything has all winter for another Arctic Outbreak across the U.S. end of Jan/early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Matt Lanza @mattlanza 19m 19 minutes ago End of the Euro ensemble looks about as good as anything has all winter for another Arctic Outbreak across the U.S. end of Jan/early Feb. I'd agree. There's another core of -30C H85 temps poised to drop into southern Ontario and Quebec, and maybe northern tier of US it seems on the long range Ops. The trick will be getting snow as I think most posters could care less about it getting real cold if it doesn't snow...just judging by the tone in here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'd agree. There's another core of -30C H85 temps poised to drop into southern Ontario and Quebec, and maybe northern tier of US it seems on the long range Ops. The trick will be getting snow as I think most posters could care less about it getting real cold if it doesn't snow...just judging by the tone in here lately. It's a NNE winter. No doubt about it. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's a NNE winter. No doubt about it. Enjoy it.Well we aren't raking it in, this is leveling off to normal or even falling below normal. I had 44" of seasonal snow a month ago, which was awesome. Now I have 56" which is 12" over 4 weeks, and that's allowed climo to catch up. But it seems like most poor SNE winters are "NNE winters" but it's not like something right now that's going to be remembered for years to come, lol. I think of a NNE winter as like 07-08 or 06-07...where it's solidly above normal by end. Maybe this year does it, but we'll need to see a resurgence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 The warmup ont he Euro has turned into real weak sauce. Verbatim it might not get out of the 30s in the interior on any of those days next week. Best shot looks like Sunday if we get enough south winds from that clipper tracking through NNE...maybe briefly breach 40F. The mid-week cutter potential has morphed more into a CAD setup or even a Miller B snow event on many ensembles. That one could still cut, but the support for that is much murkier than it looked a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The mid-week cutter potential has morphed more into a CAD setup or even a Miller B snow event on many ensembles. That one could still cut, but the support for that is much murkier than it looked a few days ago. This is the one that has had a really strong signal on the ensembles for a while. I can envision another inch or two dump on the front followed by rain. A lot of ensembles show that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We just got to some great skating, I hope this warm up doesn't trash the pond ice for the rest of the Winter. It sucks when it is cold and the ponds have all that foot print laden cement on top, or that porous ice that is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 This is the one that has had a really strong signal on the ensembles for a while. I can envision another inch or two dump on the front followed by rain. A lot of ensembles show that scenario. Yeah same system. Euro ensembles verbatim on the mean actually show a snow event for the interior and perhaps rain to snow on coast but of course the ensemble mean at this range doesn't mean much in itself...esp when the spread is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The warmup ont he Euro has turned into real weak sauce. Verbatim it might not get out of the 30s in the interior on any of those days next week. Best shot looks like Sunday if we get enough south winds from that clipper tracking through NNE...maybe briefly breach 40F. The mid-week cutter potential has morphed more into a CAD setup or even a Miller B snow event on many ensembles. That one could still cut, but the support for that is much murkier than it looked a few days ago. Looks like it'll turn out as Wx Hype called it over a week ago, muted torch FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Looks like it'll turn out as Wx Hype called it over a week ago, muted torch FTWHas he ever missed a muted torch call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Has he ever missed a muted torch call? Oh never...lol. We will get milder for sure. Maybe not a 60F cutter, but it gets milder later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Has he ever missed a muted torch call? LOL, I guess no? I think in December he didn't call the end of year torch muted, and it turns it was a blow torch. So 2 for 2! Well we're due for a January Thaw, which is a real thing and proven by science (OT I know, so feel free to delete or move to banter thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Has he ever missed a muted torch call? And summer mild-downs are usually muted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Oh never...lol. We will get milder for sure. Maybe not a 60F cutter, but it gets milder later this week. A couple of days in the 30's like Will pointed out.. That's not a warm up. It's just a mild up from the WBN to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 A couple of days in the 30's like Will pointed out.. That's not a warm up. It's just a mild up from the WBN to normal It's not set in stone yet, we could still get warmer with a few days in the 40s even in the interior, remember the whole period of milder wx is still roughly 6-9 days out...but I am definitely more "meh" on the mild-up than I was about 3 or 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It's a NNE winter. No doubt about it. Enjoy it. Relatively meh up there by NNE standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Ocean Effect Snow showers look likely out on the Cape tomorrow. With northerly to northeasterly winds, 850mb temps near -9C and oceanic temps near 9-10C instability looks moderate to good. Now I don't know about lapse rates, but both GFS and NAM have 850-925mb temps near -10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 No comments on the latest GFS? Must be more "meh" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 More disappointing NNE clipper type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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