Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well I am just speaking of this week. I am not implying anything going forward. I keep seeing people mention something that hit in mid fall at Tgiving or the one missing this week. Counting one from Nov and one that drops snow over Bermuda don't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I keep seeing people mention something that hit in mid fall at Tgiving or the one missing this week. Counting one from Nov and one that drops snow over Bermuda don't countIt depends on whether you are defining a coastal as a major snowstorm that hits Tolland, CT.I am more inclined to define a coastal as a mid-latitude cold-core cyclone off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EC starting to look a little like last year. Big ridge into AK with cold air knifing south into the CONUS. Some SW US troughing tells me maybe overrunning events possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EC starting to look a little like last year. Big ridge into AK with cold air knifing south into the CONUS. Some SW US troughing tells me maybe overrunning events possible. Kind of muting the torch so much that if it's in the closet no one will hear its voice. Marginally above for a brief period at best verbatim on euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Somebody needs to rewrite the MJO composites for January phase 5, record amplitude should have yielded warm USA instead cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I keep seeing people mention something that hit in mid fall at Tgiving or the one missing this week. Counting one from Nov and one that drops snow over Bermuda don't count How about the giant cut-off in December that was a condo crusher up here and had days of easterly fetch into the coastline? That was a coastal too. So much of a coastal it wrapped maritime puke way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It depends on whether you are defining a coastal as a major snowstorm that hits Tolland, CT. I am more inclined to define a coastal as a mid-latitude cold-core cyclone off the east coast. Yes, that's what I think he means. A coastal storm that works out as a snowy solution for his location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EC starting to look a little like last year. Big ridge into AK with cold air knifing south into the CONUS. Some SW US troughing tells me maybe overrunning events possible.If I see that pattern start to show up for the first couple weeks of Feb, then I'm canceling. We really, really need to see an NAO next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 If I see that pattern start to show up for the first couple weeks of Feb, then I'm canceling. We really, really need to see an NAO next month. What was wrong with last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EC starting to look a little like last year. Big ridge into AK with cold air knifing south into the CONUS. Some SW US troughing tells me maybe overrunning events possible. The Return of Leon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Return of Leon? Is this the Leon in the snow or the Leon Lett who holds the ball out so Don Beebe can strip it right before he crosses the goal line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What was wrong with last year?I've been hearing that all season...."ridging into AK"....plenty of cold and chances". I think we just need help from the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I've been hearing that all season...."ridging into AK"....plenty of cold and chances". I think we just need help from the Atl. If we get a trough over the SW US, usually that's good for overrunning. I mean who knows, it could be a Tippy 500mb MIA rule too. Guessing on QPF is probably the least accurate metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That is what that has resulted in this season.....shredded garbage bc of the gradient. Same garbage, wannabe, voodoo pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That is what that has resulted in this season.....shredded garbage bc of the gradient. Same garbage, wannabe, voodoo pattern. Well a little of this and a little of that and you get last season. This upcoming deal looks more stormy IMO. The NAO may just not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That is what that has resulted in this season.....shredded garbage bc of the gradient. Same garbage, wannabe, voodoo pattern.Seems like this is the result of -EPO cold but SE ridging and +NAO...so the cold easily seeps into the area when there's nothing to dislodge it. But as soon as some energy tries to run into that cold it can either easily overwhelm it, and if it can't the shortwave just disintegrates. The -NAO really is the missing link in keeping the cold given to us by the -EPO, to actually stay in place and not vacate northeast as soon as it encounters any weak southwest flow. And the -NAO could force stronger baroclinicity along the coastline by keeping that cold in place to the ocean, and slow the flow down to allow for east coast cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well a little of this and a little of that and you get last season. This upcoming deal looks more stormy IMO. The NAO may just not happen.That's going to be the key to turn this around in a more significant way, especially for SE New England or the coastal plain. But you can make good use of cold overrunning events with easterly onshore flow in the low levels and SW flow overtop. A few Advisory events in a row can get quite wintery in a hurry. I just think for "salvaging" winter for some locals, it'll require a -NAO and some better STJ systems...especially those looking for 40+" in Feb/Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Exactly. Minus NAO, I smell a rat.....don't fall for the overrunning pots of gold at the end of the rainbow again.....some years you get away with that, this ain't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah, but that is just one example. Models have Miller As and Bs too...just depends on the H5 configuration. I wasn't suggesting that is the only thing. Who knows, could be SWFE city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well a little of this and a little of that and you get last season. This upcoming deal looks more stormy IMO. The NAO may just not happen.EPS looks great with a-NAO, best look all season , all indices looking primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EPS looks great with a-NAO, best look all season , all indices looking primed. Aside for a very brief moment, I didn't see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The end of the month and beginning of Feb is really looking like the first legit region wide shot. Things are starting to look better every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Exactly. Minus NAO, I smell a rat.....don't fall for the overrunning pots of gold at the end of the rainbow again.....some years you get away with that, this ain't one. me too! the problem with lousy winters as this has been for all of us so far is that even when you get the decent 10+ day patterns, they rarely produce for whatever reason(s), though this year the NAO seems to be the culprit at least the esteemed Mr. Cohen will go down in flames, so add one more Phd. working at Walmart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 He's not going to be at Walmart..lol. And who knows, this could be the one time in the next 10 winters where it doesn't work. As I stated before, it's sort of refreshing to see as a meteorologist. It proves we may not understand the atmosphere as we think and mother nature simply doesn't give a sh*t about Siberian snowpack. The atmosphere is extremely chaotic and sometimes as humans, we think we may have the magic bullet at times.....and then mother nature throws a chocolate cream pie at our face. I like it, it reduces some of the arrogance in the field...and it brings us back to the drawing board so we can learn from our mistakes. That how science evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 He's not going to be at Walmart..lol. And who knows, this could be the one time in the next 10 winters where it doesn't work. As I stated before, it's sort of refreshing to see as a meteorologist. It proves we may not understand the atmosphere as we think and mother nature simply doesn't give a sh*t about Siberian snowpack. The atmosphere is extremely chaotic and sometimes as humans, we think we may have the magic bullet at times.....and then mother nature throws a chocolate cream pie at our face. I like it, it reduces some of the arrogance in the field...and it brings us back to the drawing board so we can learn from our mistakes. That how science evolves. It is sort of odd but I also think it's refreshing to be reminded how little we know about long range forecasting...watching all the epic winter lined up calls fall one at a time. It's all chaos and we really don't know as much as we think sometimes. It's humbling. Although I'd rather see a seasonal forecast bust happen the other way, where all indications show dead ratter and everyone ends up 125% of normal snow. The other thing is we judge winter almost entirely on pure snowfall totals on here. How have the seasonal temperature forecasts been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It is sort of odd but I also think it's refreshing to be reminded how little we know about long range forecasting...watching all the epic winter lined up calls fall one at a time. It's all chaos and we really don't know as much as we think sometimes. It's humbling. Although I'd rather see a seasonal forecast bust happen the other way, where all indications show dead ratter and everyone ends up 125% of normal snow. You see it all the time in climate change. A peer reviewed paper comes out and the media or what have you run away with it like it's factual. It's peer reviewed..it must be right! Wrong. 10 yrs later we find out that warming or cooling was modeled incorrectly. A lot of people are guilty of doing that, but I've taken a stance to sort of question things and see if they make sense..and that goes for meteorology too. Look, I don't have a PhD, but I know how the science works for the most part. Even a lonely BS graduate like myself can use the smell test to see if something passes. The mindset of a researcher is different than that of a forecaster/meteorologist. The former tends to be more literal and computer-like, the latter sort of takes in all the information and understands things aren't always going to work in the form A+B=C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 As I stated before, it's sort of refreshing to see as a meteorologist. It proves we may not understand the atmosphere as we think and mother nature simply doesn't give a sh*t about Siberian snowpack. The atmosphere is extremely chaotic and sometimes as humans, we think we may have the magic bullet at times.....and then mother nature throws a chocolate cream pie at our face. I like it, it reduces some of the arrogance in the field...and it brings us back to the drawing board so we can learn from our mistakes. That how science evolves. Risk of humans figuring out all there is to know about the atmosphere: zero. You can sleep well tonight knowing that none of our medium-term or long-term models are particularly useful, unless you consider any correlation above 0 to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That is what that has resulted in this season.....shredded garbage bc of the gradient. Same garbage, wannabe, voodoo pattern. Lol. Been very frustrating particularly for those with a coastal fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 He's not going to be at Walmart..lol. And who knows, this could be the one time in the next 10 winters where it doesn't work. As I stated before, it's sort of refreshing to see as a meteorologist. It proves we may not understand the atmosphere as we think and mother nature simply doesn't give a sh*t about Siberian snowpack. The atmosphere is extremely chaotic and sometimes as humans, we think we may have the magic bullet at times.....and then mother nature throws a chocolate cream pie at our face. I like it, it reduces some of the arrogance in the field...and it brings us back to the drawing board so we can learn from our mistakes. That how science evolves. this is refreshing coming from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 me too! the problem with lousy winters as this has been for all of us so far is that even when you get the decent 10+ day patterns, they rarely produce for whatever reason(s), though this year the NAO seems to be the culprit at least the esteemed Mr. Cohen will go down in flames, so add one more Phd. working at Walmart doesn't 75% of your Snow fall from Jan 25th on? There are a heckuva lot of assumptions being made with good signals across the spectrum coming up and a heckuva lot of winter left. Pretty sure Dr Cohen said Mid January on,if he's a week off that's still pretty stout forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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