SR Airglow Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 DM that's an anomaly map not actual values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 maybe from here??? hit refresh if image lags http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus_8.png ecmwf_T850a_neus_8.png That looks way wrong...it is anomalies first off...but secondly, +2 to +4 shouldn't be that high for anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 DM that's an anomaly map not actual values. Understood ....SR Just a hunch with euro talk this may be the source of Tips outlook I will let him clarify it tho color code says +12 anomaly??? --- yes??? link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus.html image http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 That looks way wrong...it is anomalies first off...but secondly, +2 to +4 shouldn't be that high for anomalies.What is normal? Hour 96 shows 0 anomaly over CT with 850s around -5 or -6. So a +8 anomaly would be +2 or so, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Understood ....SR Just a hunch with euro talk this may be the source I will let him clarify it tho color code says +12 anomaly??? --- yes??? link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ image http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus_11.png The pink is +10 to +12. The red +8 to +10. That's how I read it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 But yeah, Tip probably looked at the wrong map or meant to say anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 But yeah, Tip probably looked at the wrong map or meant to say anomaly. Yup, my bad folks - - ha. Sorry. Will's right. Mixing up intervals happens to the best of us sometimes. Still, I would argue that +2 to +4 in low RH, with a deep layer W/wsw flow is going to mix to pretty mild balm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GEM has a family potent coastal storm just missing the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Less than 100 hours out. I'm sure its wrong, but pretty odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro barely has a warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty boring 10 days though overall on the EURO...Monday's event is it for the period until a clipper for NNE comes through on day 8. Aside from that, cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Pretty boring 10 days though overall on the EURO...Monday's event is it for the period until a clipper for NNE comes through on day 8. Aside from that, cold and dry. Nothing wrong with that. Better than mild or warm. Though I'm sure we'll see a couple s/w's move thru in the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nothing wrong with that. Better than mild or warm. Though I'm sure we'll see a couple s/w's move thru in the flow Yup just another way to run a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That's the worst. Torch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That's the worst. Torch it. I don't think melt-downs are allowed in the model thread, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 HPC just doesn't want to fully drop this, for the 3rd day in a row. I wonder when the energy will be fully sampled. MEANWHILE THE FCST NEAR THE EAST COAST REMAINS SOMEWHATPROBLEMATIC GIVEN UPSTREAM ISSUES AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT DIFFSBECOMING EVIDENT ALREADY BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SHRTWVENERGY OVER THE PLAINS/SOUTHWEST AS OF EARLY DAY 3 WED. CONSULTTHE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION PMDHMD FOR LATEST PREFS BASED ONNEW 00Z GUIDANCE INTO EARLY WED. BEYOND THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOWTHIS ENERGY EVOLVES THERE IS STILL THE LINGERING QUESTION OF HOWNRN STREAM FLOW MAY INTERACT OVER THE ERN STATES. AS A WHOLEMULTI-DAY TRENDS HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD WEAKER AND MORE OFFSHOREWRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BY FRI DUE TO LACK OF STRONG PHASINGBETWEEN STREAMS AND/OR SUFFICIENT PROGRESSION TO PRECLUDE A SFCTRACK CLOSE TO THE NERN COAST. THIS TREND IS BEING FOLLOWED ASTHE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFICULT TO RESOLVEDETAIL ISSUES AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WWD OF MOST OPERATIONALSOLNS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE MODERATE AT BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yup just another way to run a winter. Just add to the pack tomorrow and then keep it intact, keep it cold, keep ice on the lakes..wintry appeal and hope some more small events move thru in the fast flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I do think we still warm as evident on ensemble, but too early to say ice or cutter..but the milder wx for a day or two is coming. Afterwards, -EPO comes back big time it seems. With perhaps more troughing over the SW, at least that offers storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I do think we still warm as evident on ensemble, but too early to say ice or cutter..but the milder wx for a day or two is coming. Afterwards, -EPO comes back big time it seems. With perhaps more troughing over the SW, at least that offers storm chances. I would expect it would be a torturous length of time for a return to winter, as that has been the trend this year and it doesn't seem anything has been truly reshuffled. So I go for the cutter type thing, a cold front, some cold dry weather and then a storm possibility....the 25th I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I would expect it would be a torturous length of time for a return to winter, as that has been the trend this year and it doesn't seem anything has been truly reshuffled. So I go for the cutter type thing, a cold front, some cold dry weather and then a storm possibility....the 25th I'd say. We reshuffled big time in the Pacfic. Pacific was reversed from Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Is the coastal Thursday snowing with the fishes, or still a possibility? I haven't seen the models in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We reshuffled big time in the Pacfic. Pacific was reversed from Dec. I meant that the upcoming pattern doesn't seem like a big reshuffle....I do understand the reshuffle was dramatic from December and was a "pattern shift" despite edduuggs pleadings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Is the coastal Thursday snowing with the fishes, or still a possibility? I haven't seen the models in a couple days. that's how it looks at this time. Pattern does not look favorable for amplification along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro ensembles looked a lot more CAD-ish with the storm after MLK day...long ways out, but they definitely cooled a bit. Beyond that looks decent. Eventually we will hit on one of these larger threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 For the late week storm, the lead s/w has been showing up for a while and is part of the reason the second s/w gets pulled east. The CMC is the first model to say, hey maybe the first s/w will just go to town. That's the only shot at this working out for SNE, the second one is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro ensembles looked a lot more CAD-ish with the storm after MLK day...long ways out, but they definitely cooled a bit. Beyond that looks decent. Eventually we will may hit on one of these larger threats. Probablistic, not deterministic. 8.5/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GGEM not giving up on the lead s/w idea. Completely on it's own though, but sometimes these are the kind of events that sneak up on us, when we naïvely think the models have it figured out at 120 hours out. Below, 12z GGEM vs 12z GFS. The s/w over the midwest is the one the models have been focusing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I still stand by from days ago that this pattern isn't for a coastal. I would love to be proven wrong...in fact I am begging...but it blows for coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I still stand by from days ago that this pattern isn't for a coastal. I would love to be proven wrong...in fact I am begging...but it blows for coastals. You can only say it so many times. The winter of none continues. Coastals that happen on T giving or go out to sea don't count.We're talking about coastals that hit us in the winter. to date 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 You can only say it so many times. The winter of none continues. Coastals that happen on T giving or go out to sea don't count.We're talking about coastals that hit us in the winter. to date 0 Well I am just speaking of this week. I am not implying anything going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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