SnowMan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 of course would matter more if it were sunday and we were talking tomorrow. lol think the potential for some sleet / ice is definitely there. won't scour out the LL cold inland. Any chance for ice up here? I would take that over snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Any chance for ice up here? I would take that over snow... there's always a chance...but i wouldn't be expecting it. air mass looks pretty solid up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 there's always a chance...but i wouldn't be expecting it. air mass looks pretty solid up there. ok thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Would it be a sleetfest type of setup with the high or a freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Would it be a sleetfest type of setup with the high or a freezing rain? It would prob be a narrow area of sleet and then a narrow area of ZR just south of that. The high pressing in changes it to snow pretty fast wherever that zone is. If it comes in a bit more amped, then perhaps that zone would be wider. Most guidance keeps your area and pike region northward in general as snow. Only GGEM was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It would prob be a narrow area of sleet and then a narrow area of ZR just south of that. The high pressing in changes it to snow pretty fast wherever that zone is. If it comes in a bit more amped, then perhaps that zone would be wider. Most guidance keeps your area and pike region northward in general as snow. Only GGEM was warmer. Thanks. Have not had much of a chance to look at work today. BOX is not impressed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z para isnt too bad for the late week storm. Looks like a nice little event for eastern areas. I would take something like that at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Not much chatter about the late-week event...that can't be a good sign. The Euro made a drastic jump well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 That late week thing looks too liberally pushed E given to the relaxed characteristic of the flow evolving S of the 40th parallel. Anyway, 1.5" of granular cement now with 2.5" of powder on top is a bona fide snow pack in my opinion. And as such, sun set dusky air had that bluish winter tint to the light. Wafer thin, but we're definitely there up along Route 2. No melting this weekend ...and watch, Monday over performs, and suddely there's a half a foot on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 That late week thing looks too liberally pushed E given to the relaxed characteristic of the flow evolving S of the 40th parallel. Anyway, 1.5" of granular cement now with 2.5" of powder on top is a bona fide snow pack in my opinion. And as such, sun set dusky air had that bluish winter tint to the light. Wafer thin, but we're definitely there up along Route 2. No melting this weekend ...and watch, Monday over performs, and suddely there's a half a foot on the ground Yeah that pattern just sucks for a decent storm. The +NAO molests the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS has an all out blizzard for the interior.Everything else is way east including its own ensemble. maybe something to watch though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z GFS finds a way to give us rain on the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS has an all out blizzard for the interior.Everything else is way east including its own ensemble. maybe something to watch though, It's a beaut, but it's out there all by itself. More like something to print out and hang in your bedroom rather than something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's a beaut, but it's out there all by itself. More like something to print out and hang in your bedroom rather than something to track.my post will get deleted, but will you hang it on the bedroom ceiling to ignite your passion as it shows your massive qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS has an all out blizzard for the interior.Everything else is way east including its own ensemble. maybe something to watch though, Lot of spread on the ensembles to the west. I think it misses OTS, but the signal won't completely die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What did the overnight Euro show for the late week storm?MPM wont be hanging that for inspiration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What did the overnight Euro show for the late week storm? ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think this corrects west like the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't know, I still stand by the pattern doesn't really support that. However, I can't rule it out, especially if the ridge out west sharpens. The +NAO also hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The HPC discussion posted in the pattern thread is a good one. Lots of moving pieces and spread, but probably ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 timing has to be impeccable for this to work out, low probability but not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS goes back to being a miss. Still bears watching but 6z was probably an outliner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's not like the longwave pattern is substantially different on solutions closer to the coast. Pretty subtle differences. Maybe another day or two to start honing in on a consensus on the general surface track. GFS can't even get a similar solution to itself (para vs old). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Well ... this Euro run is interesting... Monday's it for a while on this cycle. In fact, D7 looks sort of pre-January thaw, with 850mb soaring to +12C, and deep layer SW flow clear back to Texas. That's not really how to run a winter, no. But, it could be bs though. That GFS idea of more coastal awareness is valid, ...well, relative to the GEFs derived PNA, that is. It is curious the the GEFs are also flatter with that system, when it's their own PNA that is spiking leading to that time. So there could certainly be a western correction (upward) in the geopotential medium, which (not on any depiction as is) even a subtle correction in that direction would assert deeper solutions in the east like the 06z. Having a +PNA canvas isn't a bad thing when looking for storms. That, and because the N stream/SPV buzz saw is relaxed. There's that data assimilation thing too.. Quite a sensible difference between the Euro and GFS for that period of time, should something more evolve. Otherwise, a verbatim Euro solution is very spring like beyond D6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'd look at surface temps before declaring spring like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The day 10-11 storm signal has been showing on the gefs for about 100 hours now. I still think it's a cutter, but the GGEM had a different take on it today. Pgfs looks primed to possibly do something similar. Something else thread-the-needle to disappoint us, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Tip, where did you get +12 850 temps from? I see more like +2 to +4...+12 would be like record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's been obvious for a while that Monday was it until the final week of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Tip, where did you get +12 850 temps from? I see more like +2 to +4...+12 would be like record territory. maybe from here??? hit refresh if image lags http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 maybe from here??? hit refresh if image lags http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_T850a_neus_8.png ecmwf_T850a_neus_8.png Those are anomolies, not temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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