SouthCoastMA Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Probably already stated but the ggem was pretty nice looking for SNE on monday. Good to hear the euro ensembles are on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like some timing differences are big on the ensembles. But I am surprised at how juicy they are. They also have the overrunning snow on Monday. That's a good sign. thats a pretty nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Got precip back pretty far north and west, Can't see individuals but must be a lot of spread There are some tuckie tuckie's on the individual, like near NYC/Long Island and some near BOS/PWM...those solutions go right over eastern SNE. Furthest west I can see is two members who go from NYC to BML up the CT River Valley. Most are much further off-shore (like 40 of 50 members), but you can see why the mean is westward because of maybe 20% are showing those tuckie tuckie solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ens mean has a cutter look to it the day after MLK. That's what scooter was mentioning earlier. Pretty far out and no guarantee that happens but even tho the verbatim temps aren't that mild, that definitely signals to watch out for a cutter as a potential solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ens mean has a cutter look to it the day after MLK. That's what scooter was mentioning earlier. Pretty far out and no guarantee that happens but even tho the verbatim temps aren't that mild, that definitely signals to watch out for a cutter as a potential solution. Could even be ice too. I only mentioned it as a possibility, so we don't have to hear about the complaining if it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Seems like there is a semblance of trying to bridge a ridge across the N Pole at the end of the run. That look would open up the door for cold and storms on the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Could even be ice too. I only mentioned it as a possibility, so we don't have to hear about the complaining if it actually happens. 11-15 crap shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We are going to come out of this almost unscathed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 11-15 crap shoot Too a point. Maybe daily details, but you can gauge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 You gotta think of 11-15 as probabilities on a scale that don't tilts too strongly. Like we can probably say it's 60/40 or 65/35 that the 11-15 will be above normal. Now, does that mean 36/29 days where the mins are driving it more? Or do we get some 44/23 days in there? A cutter? We don't know. If we end up in a bit of a CAD pattern, then you can get high temps near normal but mins may be +10 or +12. But you can't forecast that type of specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There are some tuckie tuckie's on the individual, like near NYC/Long Island and some near BOS/PWM...those solutions go right over eastern SNE. Furthest west I can see is two members who go from NYC to BML up the CT River Valley. Most are much further off-shore (like 40 of 50 members), but you can see why the mean is westward because of maybe 20% are showing those tuckie tuckie solutions. Something to watch going forward anyways, GFS is pretty suppressed but that is no shock right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And 60/40 is pretty close to even money as it is This fast flow stuff takes a lot of the fun out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah that's exactly how you approach it. You have to take the look and by what you think will happen...which is more probabilistic so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Would the track of the overrunning low affect how the follow up system tracks? I would assume we want the overrunning low as far north as possible so it could act as a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 well the GFS basically has a wall of high pressure from the southern plains all the way to New England that builds down after the first storm,it would certainly help if that were further north and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS is now trying to pop a storm too on day 7. Just a bit SE, but big shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 that is close on gfs for later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Only a few minor changes on the GFS LOL. 0z 18z: To me, it looked like it came down to the PAC jet being slower and having less of an influence, therefore allowing the ridge to be better and the positive effects to be propagated further down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think the difference in the GFS between 18z and 00z is the fact that the southern stream disturbance is much slower than the northern stream disturbance, allowing a phase between the two within the long wave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z EURO goes over the Cape Cod Canal with the day 7 storm...deform delight from MPM-Dendrite-Dryslot. Ensemble mean is wayyy east though, partly because a good chunk of members don't even have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 How did Sunday night/Monday event look on Ens? Still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It is still there Monday over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z and 6z GFS runs strengthen the overrunning low pressure center to around 999mb as it exits out to sea as the front moves through the region on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It is still there Monday over running Yeah that looked to deliver some snows even way up here...the overrunning got pretty far north. I think that has to do with the second storm too...the overrunning was north, then the follow up storm was tucked in close. You got hammered on that day 7-8 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z EURO goes over the Cape Cod Canal with the day 7 storm...deform delight from MPM-Dendrite-Dryslot. Ensemble mean is wayyy east though, partly because a good chunk of members don't even have a storm.That would be a pretty unique track for a low and associated deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 06z para now looks more like the Euro as well. Tuckie tuckie yucky yucky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Snow is increasing in frequency and intensity oh so slowly. 1/7 mondo meh, 1/9 naso meh, 1/12 unmeh, 1/15 touchdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 06z para now looks more like the Euro as well. Tuckie tuckie yucky yucky lol.Yea, it will probably be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The room for the 16th storm is for it to move west, not out to sea like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The parallel GFS 6z run both shows the overrunning event north and the 16th storm running east of Cape Cod by 50 miles, perfect track for us, no tuckie tuckie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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