Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 They all look fairly lousy for Monday to me, most are fairly warm..I did not expect that but the euro may come north today not OTS like you thought the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Have we had any legit threats f winter wx on the models inside of 4 days since the thanksgiving storm? We had 12/9-10 but that was mostly a CNE/NNE deal and was actually pretty consistent on guidance inside of day 4. It did show some decent solutions in the day 5/6 range before it got delayed an extra day which killed our chances in SNE for the most part. But we haven't had a legit threat inside of 100 hours in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro did start showing the Octobomb around day 7 , and with Sandy ...i have never and may never again see a model LOCK in around day 8. The huge standard deviation block no doubt left more wiggle room than normal with regard to having to "time" a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 not OTS like you thought the other day? I didn't think out to sea as much as a MA event, the second system which the euro has was the one I felt a better chance it would go OTS. The overrunning event on the GFS sort of finds a way to come up at the worst time between the 2 high pressure centers, 24 hours either side it's more frozen and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Many of us expected it with no blocking..things are gonna come north. Snow to ice is nice I wasn't talking about Monday by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 hmm, that is a downgrade from Wills inside 120/96 rule from years back. They screwed with the upgrade and degraded it. I'm sure someone will post how the 5H scores over Northern Hemisphere have improved but we follow this darn thing every 12 hrs and know its degraded in the 4-8 day range to the point of being just another model. It's the operational details that count though. Not whether it has a storm 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't think out to sea as much as a MA event, the second system which the euro has was the one I felt a better chance it would go OTS. The overrunning event on the GFS sort of finds a way to come up at the worst time between the 2 high pressure centers, 24 hours either side it's more frozen and south I think that is a nice overunning event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't think out to sea as much as a MA event, the second system which the euro has was the one I felt a better chance it would go OTS. The overrunning event on the GFS sort of finds a way to come up at the worst time between the 2 high pressure centers, 24 hours either side it's more frozen and south Well it's frozen for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro on the Monday overrunning train. Nothing big but like 1-3 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro on the Monday overrunning train. Nothing big but like 1-3 verbatim. nickle here nickle there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The nickel and dimes train rolls on unabated. If you like snow Id suggest you hop on. Euro late to party again, but at least it's rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 If the euro is right, the radiators will have a chance to satiate their calm/cold night fetish under fresh snowpack next week. 1040 overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 If the euro is right, the radiators will have a chance to satiate their calm/cold night fetish under fresh snowpack next week. 1040 overhead. how cold we talkin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 how cold we talkin? Below zero for radiators. Nothing special for non-radiators. If euro is right anyway. The airmass aloft isn't that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Any news on the day 7 threat next week from the Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Any news on the day 7 threat next week from the Euro?? Scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 you had to figure that the European was going to shift eastward today given the other model information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Still ages away, and still has little margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 nickle here nickle there Almost adding up enough nickels to be able to go buy a lollipop from the corner candy store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well that wasn't the most exciting run of the EURO, but several chances for 1-3" type events across New England mixed in with some decent cold. Nothing that's going to make up any real ground in the snowfall department but definitely a wintery appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Scraper. Thank You. Just a question, the theme so far anyway, seems to never quite get all the pieces of the puzzle to come together this year. Now I realize that we don't need a perfect pattern to get snow, but we just can't seem to put together anything of substance so far this season. Could this very well be the theme for this winter?? Sure seems it? The winter that can't seem to get it together?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thank You. Just a question, the theme so far anyway, seems to never quite get all the pieces of the puzzle to come together this year. Now I realize that we don't need a perfect pattern to get snow, but we just can't seem to put together anything of substance so far this season. Could this very well be the theme for this winter?? Sure seems it? The winter that can't seem to get it together?? It's been that way so far, but you really can't use persistence in a pattern like this. If one little piece of the puzzle changes, such as a big Yukon ridge or even less less of a +NAO..then all bets are off and you can have a gravy train. Features like that simply cannot be seen or predicted this far out. If I had to guess...we will make a run at some point later this month or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Weaker s/w east, Stronger s/w west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah this is happening right now... KJAX 081941Z 36011KT 8SM -SN BKN022 OVC030 03/M02 A3047 RMK AO2 SNB09 P0000 T00281022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Weaker s/w east, Stronger s/w westEverything has been a thread the needle type scenario so far, and we haven't been able to get it right. Looks like more of the same for the foreseeable futureWe need some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ensembles look like they'll have the low for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's been that way so far, but you really can't use persistence in a pattern like this. If one little piece of the puzzle changes, such as a big Yukon ridge or even less less of a +NAO..then all bets are off and you can have a gravy train. Features like that simply cannot be seen or predicted this far out. If I had to guess...we will make a run at some point later this month or Feb. Thank You for that great reply....I do appreciate it. Sheds some light on things for sure. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looked decent on the mean. Better than the op anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looked decent on the mean. Better than the op anyways. Got precip back pretty far north and west, Can't see individuals but must be a lot of spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like some timing differences are big on the ensembles. But I am surprised at how juicy they are. They also have the overrunning snow on Monday. That's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.