40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 who knows...but that didn't really end up helping all that much. was sort of a delayed not denied scenario that played out in December. the mid-month had those cool days but once HP let go...it was off to the torches. i'd almost rather the whole deck just reshuffle. Agree on the reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's a bridge year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 You can see how the GFS reshuffles it. Not much of a warm up so that's a plus. I think most people aren't trying to hype a warm up, all we are saying is don't be surprised. I do feel like we will reshuffle later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Canadian looks solid for a period of light snows from overrunning on Monday, 1-3/2-4" deal for most of SNE. Good bit colder than the GFS which is encouraging given I've noticed the Canadian often runs warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS seems like a no-go next week except for a little overunning mixed precip. I think the pattern favors the GFS, but we'll see what the other guidance does. Obviously too early to say nail down. No go with anything next week with regard to any type of Wintry event? Yesterday the GFS had rather nice looking events, today nadda? Wow, quite the change. However, that has been the theme unfortunately. At least the Canadian came in with something worth looking at For Monday...Now let's see what the Euro brings at 1:00 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No go with anything next week with regard to any type of Wintry event? Yesterday the GFS had rather nice looking events, today nadda? Wow, quite the change. However, that has been the theme unfortunately. At least the Canadian came in with something worth looking at For Monday...Now let's see what the Euro brings at 1:00 pm. No, I mean the storm that day 8 storm the euro has. If I were to guess, I think the euro op may be too close..but that's only a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm feeling good for late next week. I like seeing the gfs northern stream squash any phase at this lead time while the euro shows a hit. If 12z euro still shows somewhat of a hit, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No go with anything next week with regard to any type of Wintry event? Yesterday the GFS had rather nice looking events, today nadda? Wow, quite the change. However, that has been the theme unfortunately. At least the Canadian came in with something worth looking at For Monday...Now let's see what the Euro brings at 1:00 pm. That blizzard type storm it showed yesterday was over a week away. Fantasy land stuff. In that time frame ( as we saw) it can go from blizzard to nothing in one run. People are setting themselves up for failure if they are reaching that far out. With that said. Looks like a couple of chances next week, maybe. Have too see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm feeling good for late next week. I like seeing the gfs northern stream squash any phase at this lead time while the euro shows a hit. If 12z euro still shows somewhat of a hit, I'm all in. It would be nice if the Euro holds it's ground....that hasn't been the case this year though...it Flip Flops every run too. What's sad is, we can't get a storm to look nice on Modeling for a day this year it seems. In previous years, at least a storm would look great on the Euro for 4, 5 or 6 runs in a row, and then the Euro would lose it, only to bring it back in a day or two, if it was a legit threat. I fear the Euro will lose the day 7-8 threat today at 12z...just a gut feeling because that's been it's M.O. this year so far. Sure hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No, I mean the storm that day 8 storm the euro has. If I were to guess, I think the euro op may be too close..but that's only a guess. For what it's worth, it seems to my untrained eye that at 144 the 12z UK looks more like yesterday's 12z Euro at 168 than today's 12z GFS over Canada and the North Atlantic, with the approx 1040 high sitting off the coast of Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I fear the Euro will lose the day 7-8 threat today at 12z...just a gut feeling because that's been it's M.O. this year so far. Sure hope I'm wrong though. More likely than it being a "gut feeling," it is probably because the GFS has completely lost it for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 More likely than it being a "gut feeling," it is probably because the GFS has completely lost it for multiple runs now. Actually to be completely honest, I didn't factor that idea in when I wrote that about the Euro, I was just going on the way the Euro has been lately imo. But that could be another reason to feel that the Euro will lose the threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 The euro is never going to be consistent at day 7-8. I'm not sure where that expectation comes from. I guess since it's so easy for many to get the euro now, they look at these day 8 solutions on the pretty graphics and expect it to be there next run. We used to not even mention it except in a humorous passing if it was outside day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The euro is never going to be consistent at day 7-8. I'm not sure where that expectation comes from. I guess since it's so easy for many to get the euro now, they look at these day 8 solutions on the pretty graphics and expect it to be there next run. We used to lot even mention it except in a humorous passing if it was outside day 5-6. euro Ens has been consistent with LP just south of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 euro Ens has been consistent with LP just south of NE Yes. But with huge spread. The ensemble mean at this range just tells us there's a chance. But the spread is large so it doesn't tell us anythig more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well Will, I remember it(the OP) with the boxing day blizzard having it show the threat many times in a row..5 or 6 times, at least 5-6 days out. Same for the Feb 13 blizzard, and for Sandy as well. Now perhaps it wasn't day 7 lead time like this is, but it was quite a ways out for those that I mentioned. I guess my point was, the Euro hasn't held a system for any length of time at day 4 this season it seems. Now maybe it's just me, but the Euro doesn't seem itself this season, no matter what lead time its in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yes. But with huge spread. The ensemble mean at this range just tells us there's a chance. But the spread is large so it doesn't tell us anythig more than that. of course but it also is a signal that that period is something to watch, haven't seen anyone say they expect a snowstorm based on pretty maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 of course but it also is a signal that that period is something to watch, haven't seen anyone say they expect a snowstorm based on pretty maps though We've seen many meltdowns over a day 7-8 prog disappearing by day 5. That was my point. Nobody should expect those to hold steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We've seen many meltdowns over a day 7-8 prog disappearing by day 5. That was my point. Nobody should expect those to hold steady. all snow and 90210 have been absent during the cold spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well we can all hope the GEFS are right, with moderating being mixed precip..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well Will, I remember it(the OP) with the boxing day blizzard having it show the threat many times in a row..5 or 6 times, at least 5-6 days out. Same for the Feb 13 blizzard, and for Sandy as well. Now perhaps it wasn't day 7 lead time like this is, but it was quite a ways out for those that I mentioned. I guess my point was, the Euro hasn't held a system for any length of time at day 4 this season it seems. Now maybe it's just me, but the Euro doesn't seem itself this season, no matter what lead time its in. The feb 2013 blizzard was ziltch on the euro until about 5 days out. That is vastly different than a day 7-8 prog. Much higher skill by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I guess my point was, the Euro hasn't held a system for any length of time at day 4 this season it seems. There really haven't been any systems of note to hold. It held the last cutter pretty well I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We've seen many meltdowns over a day 7-8 prog disappearing by day 5. That was my point. Nobody should expect those to hold steady. They'll keep happening no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The euro op and even ensemble have waffled around in the day 4-5 timeframe, but sometimes that will happen if the pattern causes fits on the model. I think ever since Sandy, people think the euro is God. It is not. It's bread and butter has ALWAYS been inside 72 hrs where it tends to get the specifics of an event more or less correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well we can all hope the GEFS are right, with moderating being mixed precip..lol. They all look fairly lousy for Monday to me, most are fairly warm..I did not expect that but the euro may come north today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The feb 2013 blizzard was ziltch on the euro until about 5 days out. That is vastly different than a day 7-8 prog. Much higher skill by that point. Ok, I'll go with that, maybe it was 5 days out then. Thank you for that clarification :-). I do know it had Sandy for a week, and never lost it. And I know, Sandy was a highly anomalous event, and somtimes those stand out a lil brighter from far out, than a lesser event would, so that's probably the reason for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 They all look fairly lousy for Monday to me, most are fairly warm..I did not expect that but the euro may come north today Many of us expected it with no blocking..things are gonna come north. Snow to ice is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well Will, I remember it(the OP) with the boxing day blizzard having it show the threat many times in a row..5 or 6 times, at least 5-6 days out. Same for the Feb 13 blizzard, and for Sandy as well. Now perhaps it wasn't day 7 lead time like this is, but it was quite a ways out for those that I mentioned. I guess my point was, the Euro hasn't held a system for any length of time at day 4 this season it seems. Now maybe it's just me, but the Euro doesn't seem itself this season, no matter what lead time its in. Fast flow and no block busters to sniff out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Fast flow Good Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The euro op and even ensemble have waffled around in the day 4-5 timeframe, but sometimes that will happen if the pattern causes fits on the model. I think ever since Sandy, people think the euro is God. It is not. It's bread and butter has ALWAYS been inside 72 hrs where it tends to get the specifics of an event more or less correct. hmm, that is a downgrade from Wills inside 120/96 rule from years back. They screwed with the upgrade and degraded it. I'm sure someone will post how the 5H scores over Northern Hemisphere have improved but we follow this darn thing every 12 hrs and know its degraded in the 4-8 day range to the point of being just another model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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