Randy4Confluence Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro and ensembles have the storm but we've been fooled by that before. After, the pacific takes over for a period of time. I said that yesterday and stand by that. It won't be denied IMO. Now is it for two days or a week, I don't know, but nothing really exciting after next week for a little while as it looks now. My guess is maybe later in the month. Is there still any sidgn of the GOA ridge returning beyond that? In other words, are we still talking a brief thaw or something more substantial that lasts a week+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm not denying a mild up comes. But I am not seeing any signs of some big torch of 50's for days Well since that would be a +20 departure it would be highly unusual for ensembles to snow that. But I could see it for a couple of days if a low travels up west of us by 1200 miles which could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There is a thaw somewhat next week, but with highs in the 30s. Then colder weather comes back in later on next week for a snowstorm. The overrunning event is something you don't really want to happen, otherwise we lose the next storm out to sea, however the EURO ensemble means have a 1006mb low just south of the benchmark at hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there still any sidgn of the GOA ridge returning beyond that? In other words, are we still talking a brief thaw or something more substantial that lasts a week+? Thaw is relatively short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't see a torch, or a cutter coming up on the models, what models show that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there still any sidgn of the GOA ridge returning beyond that? In other words, are we still talking a brief thaw or something more substantial that lasts a week+? Yeah it looks lie it tries to rebuild. The models are really in flux so not sure how long any thaw lasts. Maybe there is no real cutter too, but I wouldn't set myself up for disappointment. Seems like it wouldn't last much longer than a week. I'm not saying blow torch, but all these calls for muted torch or one day mild up may also not happen. It's important to be open this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't see a torch, or a cutter coming up on the models, what models show that? All ensembles snow warmer in the d11-15. Cutter is possible based on heights. That's all anyone's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I do feel good about it returning to something more favorable. Lets hope we can grab something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The EC really tries to develop a nice block over nrn AK, but also tries to turn PNA -. So again, might be a battle. It's been -PNA happy lately though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't buy into the long range EURO, past day 7, even past day 5 is a stretch, but within 5 days its been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Surprisingly.. the overrunning event Monday/Tuesday has gain support on the models as we've gotten closer. That is probably going to be mostly south, I'm not even sure how much my area is gonna see with that, SNE may end up totally dry. The 00Z Euro was fairly adamant nobody north of Trenton is seeing much with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is probably going to be mostly south, I'm not even sure how much my area is gonna see with that, SNE may end up totally dry. The 00Z Euro was fairly adamant nobody north of Trenton is seeing much with that.While all other guidance is north. Another Euro struggle it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 lol. All the models also came in warmer last night. yeah that thaw will happen. we'll see how long it lasts and how mild it gets, but sometime after the 15th/16th through 21st-ish it's going to turn mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Sneaky HP in Quebec like early-mid Dec perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Sneaky HP in Quebec like early-mid Dec perhaps. who knows...but that didn't really end up helping all that much. was sort of a delayed not denied scenario that played out in December. the mid-month had those cool days but once HP let go...it was off to the torches. i'd almost rather the whole deck just reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 who knows...but that didn't really end up helping all that much. was sort of a delayed not denied scenario that played out in December. the mid-month had those cool days but once HP let go...it was off to the torches. i'd almost rather the whole deck just reshuffle. That takes too long. We spent 30 days from early Dec thru early Jan doing that and so far it hasn't yielded much. You're playing with fire trying to reshuffle so late in the season. We can't afford to waste anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 That takes too long. We spent 30 days from early Dec thru early Jan doing that and so far it hasn't yielded much. You're playing with fire trying to reshuffle so late in the season. We can't afford to waste anytime. Every single piece of ensemble guidance has the GOA trough. So were getting it whether you want it or not. Hopefully it's quick and the heights recover rapidly like most guidance shows. Whether we get some system cutting to our west or a few milder days in the 40s instead remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That takes too long. We spent 30 days from early Dec thru early Jan doing that and so far it hasn't yielded much. You're playing with fire trying to reshuffle so late in the season. We can't afford to waste anytime. well we have no control over it...so i'm not wasting anything. but a flip doesn't have to take 30 days. and the set-up that yielded those sneaky Ontario HPs and the east coast cut-off garbage was all part of the reason it took a month. they aren't independent things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 well we have no control over it...so i'm not wasting anything. but a flip doesn't have to take 30 days. and the set-up that yielded those sneaky Ontario HPs and the east coast cut-off garbage was all part of the reason it took a month. they aren't independent things. Well whatever ends up happening we'd better hope the next 10-14, days produce some sort of snow events . Otherwise golf courses will be opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Not seeing anything that warm,low 40s for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Not seeing anything that warm,low 40s for a couple of days. You have to envision it though. Nobody ever sees anything warm this far out, and then all of the sudden we have a cutter and wrists start slitting, even though we warned them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS seems like a no-go next week except for a little overunning mixed precip. I think the pattern favors the GFS, but we'll see what the other guidance does. Obviously too early to say nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS seems like a no-go next week except for a little overunning mixed precip. I think the pattern favors the GFS, but we'll see what the other guidance does. Obviously too early to say nail down.I will go with the Euro and Ens in that time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 At least we should have thick ice ...ya so with modeled cold ...we have that to hang our hats on. Looking to go skiing during the mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I will go with the Euro and Ens in that time range Euro ensemble was actually close to a cutter on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 You have to envision it though. Nobody ever sees anything warm this far out, and then all of the sudden we have a cutter and wrists start slitting, even though we warned them. also think maybe folks are looking at the wrong period. it's not next week so much as the period just beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ensemble was actually close to a cutter on the mean.day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 also think maybe folks are looking at the wrong period. it's not next week so much as the period just beyond that. Yep. We'll see how it goes. We may have our own private cold corner next week while the CONUS is a chinook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 also think maybe folks are looking at the wrong period. it's not next week so much as the period just beyond that.11-15 has been changing a lot, warm,cold, seems normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 day 8? No in the 11-15 day. That's what we are saying..not next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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