Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 But again the first system isn't rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The rainstorm on the Euro is not the same snowstorm that the GFS, PGFS and GGEM are showing. The follow-up storm is. The Euro rainer misses south on the GFS. The euro rainer is actually the overrunning snow on the GFS between 120-150 hours. At any rate, most of this convoluted mess doesn't mean too much verbatim yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 But again the first system isn't rain Ok. I wish I knew how you looked at weather models. Its not 100% rain on the Euro but its certainly not all snow or wintery. But useless to argue about this with you about a day 7 prog. The euro rainer is actually the overrunning snow on the GFS between 120-150 hours. At any rate, most of this convoluted mess doesn't mean too much verbatim yet. Yeah its the same first wave in that messy parade of energy. Good luck to the models sorting that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 But again the first system isn't rain On the euro it is verbatim after a bit of snow and ice. I just have my doubts that the typical interior locations would ever warm like the euro says when there's a nose of high pressure poking back into northern Maine and Quebec with a weakish low over the benchmark. But the solutions verbatim are fairly meaningless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There is another decent signal for a storm in about two weeks that has been on the GFS and GEFS for a few runs now. It has mostly showed up as a cutter but has trended a bit colder. Mostly just means there may be something else to watch after next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The first wave actually looked to help the second wave stay snow for SNE... the first storm that brings some rain to the area and snow to the deep interior, actually forces the second storm SE of New England. Last night's 00z run cut the storm from ALB to BML because it was just one big consolidated system without the leading energy. This new run has it more disjointed but it actually allows the follow up energy to be pushed SE along the front. So everyone lamenting the rain from the first system, has that to thank for the second storms track. Without that, I bet that thing would've ripped inland again like 00z. I really like on Weatherbell now you can easily toggle between the last couple runs...makes it very easy to spot the differences. Well to be honest, It was more of a snow/ice deal up here with that 1st wave, I don't know why some are insisting it was all rain everywhere, But really is a moot point and like i said not worth getting worked up about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Well to be honest, It was more of a snow/ice deal up here with that 1st wave, I don't know why some are insisting it was all rain everywhere, But really is a moot point and like i said not worth getting worked up about Yeah it was all snow here, but the discussion seemed to be centered on SNE, especially Pike south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah it was all snow here, but the discussion seemed to be centered on SNE, especially Pike south. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Discussed this with Phil the other day, appears the Euro is showing what a common evolution looks like as the PV pulls north. we get this overrunning WAA snow/ice/rain depending on your locale with an initial "storm", as that departs, a more potent vort max drops into the trough creating a more potent shortwave which can deepen rapidly or sometimes become cutoff. Many signals on all models for a potent system in that time frame, also many signs for an explosive Miller B. All is extremely difficult for modeling to exact track or key on but suffice to say that is a legit shot at a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Discussed this with Phil the other day, appears the Euro is showing what a common evolution looks like as the PV pulls north. we get this overrunning WAA snow/ice/rain depending on your locale with an initial "storm", as that departs, a more potent vort max drops into the trough creating a more potent shortwave which can deepen rapidly or sometimes become cutoff. Many signals on all models for a potent system in that time frame, also many signs for an explosive Miller B. All is extremely difficult for modeling to exact track or key on but suffice to say that is a legit shot at a good snowstorm. this, A couple runs had cut off that 2nd vortmax over the DC area a couple days back, Fair to say we have something to track at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 A number of GEFS members have some good rainers next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Quite a few gefs have some good snowers next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Quite a few gefs have some good snowers next week Through H180 I see 1 that could be an advsory snowfall... otherwise meh or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Discussed this with Phil the other day, appears the Euro is showing what a common evolution looks like as the PV pulls north. we get this overrunning WAA snow/ice/rain depending on your locale with an initial "storm", as that departs, a more potent vort max drops into the trough creating a more potent shortwave which can deepen rapidly or sometimes become cutoff. Many signals on all models for a potent system in that time frame, also many signs for an explosive Miller B. All is extremely difficult for modeling to exact track or key on but suffice to say that is a legit shot at a good snowstorm. Yeah there's going to be a storm...going to be an interesting week. No blocking so anything is possible as Coastal said earlier. I'm leaning towards if there are "two systems" the second one will be far enough SE that you guys don't have to worry about p-type. If it comes out of the south as one consolidated system though, then it just plays the Miller A firehose could spray anywhere from BUF to the Benchmark, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The meh's you mention are snow Nothing noteworthy. A number have a rainy appeal or very minor amounts of snow... like an inch or something. It's the model discussion thread - I'm telling you what the model shows. If you want to make up an interpretation to match your "snowgenda" feel free to do so in the banter thread or on your Twitter or Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The meh's you mention are snow Individual ensemble looks are often so far different to be useless, cluster Ens is what the majority of pros seem to like when making Ens statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Not worth getting worked up on a 170+ hr OP runThis!! +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Individual ensemble looks are often so far different to be useless, cluster Ens is what the majority of pros seem to like when making Ens statements. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I would be more worried the Day 8 event is OTS vs cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembles show both the overrunning potential d6ish and also the d8 coastal. Both look nice on the ensemble mean for SNE. Still a long was to go of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Come on man. It's posts like this that just totally derail these threads. Will have you verbatim what it shows Perhaps I was a little quick to make that statement...apologies. However, after reading Ryan's post about it being a nice big rainstorm, I just lost a lil composure. Again, I apologize for the Negative post(s). And yes, all we can do is be patient. And I do believe what Ryan saw was accurate and legit, but I didn't look at the end of the run, and see the 2nd storm...my fault. It's just that like a few have said, we are snakebitten this year in SNE so far. And it's almost hard to imagine anything now more than an inch or two happening....something always(as of late) gets in the way to muck it up it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembles show both the overrunning potential d6ish and also the d8 coastal. Both look nice on the ensemble mean for SNE. Still a long was to go of course. That overrunning event if it happened as shown would be mostly snow probably ending as some PL or FZRA, the models just stink with split flow overrunning systems coming up from the SW beyond 72 hours, they almost always tend to be too warm with them. Even PDII was shown on some models as rain a few days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Through H180 I see 1 that could be an advsory snowfall... otherwise meh or rain. Beyond what the model says verbatim, does the setup imply snow or rain to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I would be more worried the Day 8 event is OTS vs cutting.agree wholeheartedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembles show both the overrunning potential d6ish and also the d8 coastal. Both look nice on the ensemble mean for SNE. Still a long was to go of course.So the Ens have the overrunning next Tues.. Whereas op models have it more Sunday Nite/ Monday. Is that the same event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 So the Ens have the overrunning next Tues.. Whereas op models have it more Sunday Nite/ Monday. Is that the same event? They do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I would be more worried the Day 8 event is OTS vs cutting. Depends on how it comes out of the SW. If it's one consolidated storm, it could be west. If it comes out in bits and pieces then yeah further SE. However I think that same statement was made last storm about it not cutting and it found a way to do so. Without blocking it's always a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z GFS looks like it could be a crowd-pleaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z GFS looks like it could be a crowd-pleaser. Different, but still gets the job done for the later system. It's encouraging to see different ways it could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z gem liked a coastal then a miller B type of system to shortly follow. 18z gfs isn't far from the same idea. Two storms back to back. Para GFS @ 18z was out to sea. @ 12z, it had a blizzard over SNE and multiple shots of snow. Model noise. Threats are on the table. Ensembles look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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