J Paul Gordon Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I posted a panic party question on the Banter thread, but seriously here. Are these overrunning events often a case of "trending northward" until they hit Montreal, or, given the state of the atmosphere right now, are they generally reliable for snow. I know that we are too far out to talk about the particulars of events next week. My question is meant to be general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Down to 960mb, Blizzard Ya, the pattern doesn't support that type of storm...isn't that what was said by somebody?? Although those intensities are a lil whacked out lol. To good to be true??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 I posted a panic party question on the Banter thread, but seriously here. Are these overrunning events often a case of "trending northward" until they hit Montreal, or, given the state of the atmosphere right now, are they generally reliable for snow. I know that we are too far out to talk about the particulars of events next week. My question is meant to be general.There's no downstream blocking so these can do anything. We are at the whim of the shortwave strength and confluence to the north which are details that can't be worked out. That's the best you are going to get at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I posted a panic party question on the Banter thread, but seriously here. Are these overrunning events often a case of "trending northward" until they hit Montreal, or, given the state of the atmosphere right now, are they generally reliable for snow. I know that we are too far out to talk about the particulars of events next week. My question is meant to be general. You answered your own question IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There's no downstream bl No downstream blocking? So they just progress along but don't trend north or south? I'm showing my meteorological ignorance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You answered your own question IMO. Yes he did, Just something to track, Details to be worked out as we get closer in to what may end up or not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Enjoy it while you've got it (in model la-la-land): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Ya, the pattern doesn't support that type of storm...isn't that what was said by somebody?? Although those intensities are a lil whacked out lol. To good to be true??? That is pretty extreme, And how it gets there is a little convuluted, But at least it shows that potential exists for an event in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You answered your own question IMO. Not really. I understand (in a simple way) why the cutters happened in December (HP moving eastward from Quebec and allowing storms to move up through Mid West/GL) but the pattern has changed now. What keeps the northward trend from happening now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Enjoy it while you've got it (in model la-la-land): WOW...what a Beauty!! That cant happen, it's to beautiful :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 WOW...what a Beauty!! That cant happen, it's to beautiful :-( Only can go down hill from here...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Not really. I understand (in a simple way) why the cutters happened in December (HP moving eastward from Quebec and allowing storms to move up through Mid West/GL) but the pattern has changed now. What keeps the northward trend from happening now? A progressive flow can keep it from cutting. So can a sheared out shortwave. So can a well timed region of confluence to the north. But those are all things that are more difficult to predict this far out. When we have downstream blocking, it sort of forces confluence to be to our north so it is more difficult to cut systems. There's no golden nugget to look at on this one right now. The models are forecasting a lot I confluence to the north and the flow is fairly progressive so a cutter is probably not all that likely but you can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Not really. I understand (in a simple way) why the cutters happened in December (HP moving eastward from Quebec and allowing storms to move up through Mid West/GL) but the pattern has changed now. What keeps the northward trend from happening now? If we had a negative NAO, there would be a strong high pressure to the N/NE of us that would both provide a source of cold air and act kind of like a backstop for any storms that try to cut. We don't have that. However, a -NAO can also push storms too far to the south. Bottom line, it needs to be well timed to get a wound-up nor'easter, but there are also plenty of "non-perfect" ways for us to get decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Only can go down hill from here...................... EXACTLY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Thanks ORH, JC... this was what I was looking for...just the general idea in situations like this... why something is or is not likely. I understand that nothing is written in stone and the particulars of next week are too far away...the info about confluence is new to me. The NAO refresher is helpful, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Models have a nice 1-3 or 4inch deal Friday..then snow to ice early next week. i still fear suppression on that one though..Hope that signal holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Models have a nice 1-3 or 4inch deal Friday..then snow to ice early next week. i still fear suppression on that one though..Hope that signal holds Most will be 1-2. Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GGEM has the system next thurs as well, Tracks it over the cape into the GOM but much weaker and progressive but still a decent snow event for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Most will be 1-2. Take it and run. Taken with Open Arms(Journey)..but gotta forecast 1-3 since some spot or 2 will get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Most will be 1-2. Take it and run. No guarantee at 1-2 either as it's not the greatest looking on the models. Should be a 2-3 hour burst, however, some guidance is still struggling to put out a tenth of liquid. West facing berkshires and such are the spots most likely to see 3"+. Tho we know how Kevin operates, start high and you can always adjust down. He's got a lot of practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 No guarantee at 1-2 either as it's not the greatest looking on the models. Should be a 2-3 hour burst, however, some guidance is still struggling to put out a tenth of liquid. West facing berkshires and such are the spots most likely to see 3"+. Tho we know how Kevin operates, start high and you can always adjust down. He's got a lot of practice. I'm using a NAM/RGEM/Euro blend..that's all folks should be looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 No guarantee at 1-2 either as it's not the greatest looking on the models. Should be a 2-3 hour burst, however, some guidance is still struggling to put out a tenth of liquid. West facing berkshires and such are the spots most likely to see 3"+. Tho we know how Kevin operates, start high and you can always adjust down. He's got a lot of practice. Yeah true, that's not even a lock if it's banded and not very organized. Seems like CT and into ORH and ern areas should get some snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'm using a NAM/RGEM/Euro blend..that's all folks should be looking at Nam is a lot more robust than the other two. But anyway, I digress. I already posted my thoughts on that event in the specified thread. I will focus more on the different model outputs for next week in here. Might be gaining some traction on a couple chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'm using a NAM/RGEM/Euro blend..that's all folks should be looking at RGEM doesn't go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 RGEM doesn't go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nam is a lot more robust than the other two. But anyway, I digress. I already posted my thoughts on that event in the specified thread. I will focus more on the different model outputs for next week in here. Might be gaining some traction on a couple chances next week. Look like a couple chances going forward, Most model guidance has these events in some way, Shape or form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You made my point. 12z Friday. Everything is after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 WOW...what a Beauty!! That cant happen, it's to beautiful :-( I just looked at that evolution. You think a drop of 12 millibars in 3 hours is a stretch? How about 25 mb in 9 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You made my point. 12z Friday. Everything is after.Ummm. Extrapolate please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Ummm. Extrapolate please Well that can be dangerous when the precip is lined up over the high terrain like that. Anyways, better off to use that at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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