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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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Euro has two storms in fantasy land next week. Nearly every model is now developing a coastal or two.

Pretty cold too.

00z GFS had the weenie nightmare...cold and colder and dry for 2 weeks followed by a cutter.

I got a chuckle out of that because all you could do is laugh if that's how the next two weeks went. It's like morbid curiosity to imagine how that would play out haha.

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Loop the 06z GFS if you want to feel good about cold and dry then warm and wet, lol.

 

This week looks decently snowy.  Should be a fun time with some arctic boundaries and weak energy moving through to keep flakes in the air off and on all week.

 

The long range is as usual a total toss-up, the ECMWF looks better than the GFS, but it does relax a bit.  Luckily this is the time of year when we can deal with fairly marginal temps and still be ok.

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I didn't find the look all that great. Gfs is a toaster as I mentioned last night, and the GEM does spin up a pretty nice storm middle of next week. The problem is, verbatim its warm or marginal for a good chunk of the region.

The GEM starts out a little mild but the storm deepens and a CCB develops dropping warning level snowfall across a large portion of the area.

It doesn't really matter at this range though in terms of minute details like that. Just happy it has a storm.

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OP Euro cooking up a nice event at D7. Verbatim a close miss. But it has a nice upper air look if this can get into the region. This one has been on and off the models for a couple days now. Something to watch.

 

Hard to compare to 0z in 24hr intervals, but definitely has made improvements compared to 12z yesterday.

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OP Euro cooking up a nice event at D7. Verbatim a close miss. But it has a nice upper air look if this can get into the region. This one has been on and off the models for a couple days now. Something to watch.

 

It's getting there - a mild look though for the CP aloft if it comes much farther north. With plentiful LL cold maybe some icing issues too?

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yes right now the trough axis looks a little bit too far east on the European and Canadian and the high-pressure Ridge looks a little bit too strong and close. Rather than one consolidated storm you get multiple waves that side swipe the area. Haven't looked at any of the upper air charts but someone mentioned that it looked a little more positive. PNA spike looks impressive. Wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with something decent but wouldn't be surprised if we had a whiff either .

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yes right now the trough axis looks a little bit too far east on the European and Canadian and the high-pressure Ridge looks a little bit too strong and close. Rather than one consolidated storm you get multiple waves that side swipe the area. Haven't looked at any of the upper air charts but someone mentioned that it looked a little more positive. PNA spike looks impressive. Wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with something decent but wouldn't be surprised if we had a whiff either .

lol. 

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if we can avoid suppression depression could be an interesting stretch there sun-wed of next week. pretty good agreement on HP N of the Lakes and boundary offshore. 

definitely has that look of one perhaps two threats as the PV pulls out. Often times a less intense parent type  low hits with a moderate event and then several days later a more potent vort max, possible cutoff low winds up. Have seen hints of that on a couple of models.

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