jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Low on Friday is too far north to really impact the region fairly, arctic front along the low may provide the region with heavier snow squalls and Ocean Effect Snows on southwesterly winds for the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 We will probably see some heavy squalls with the passage of the arctic boundary that comes in here friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 There is a weak signal out 7-8 days. Just basing this off of the 00z Op runs of the GFS/CMC/Euro. GFS squashes it S of us but the CMC and Euro both have a SLP just S of LI. The last great white hope for those desperately seeking snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Man it is going to be cold Thursday morning. Impressively cold for SNE at least. I'll be interested to see how far below zero we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Man it is going to be cold Thursday morning. Impressively cold for SNE at least. I'll be interested to see how far below zero we can get. The Euro 2m temps are incredible. -18 for a min and -6 for a max at BDL lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think it warms just a bit Thursday evening to force cheap highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think it warms just a bit Thursday evening to force cheap highs. SW flow FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The Euro 2m temps are incredible. -18 for a min and -6 for a max at BDL lolDepends on snowcover . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Depends on snowcover . The Euro is out to lunch. First of all we won't radiate at all - secondly, the Euro temps at 925 and 850 don't come close to supporting a high of -6. I'd say something 20F higher than that is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The Euro is out to lunch. First of all we won't radiate at all - secondly, the Euro temps at 925 and 850 don't come close to supporting a high of -6. I'd say something 20F higher than that is more likely.Yeah I agree. I was thinking like -2 at BDL and maybe hills -6 or so. If we can manage an inch or 2 between squalls and clipper then maybe a bit colder. How much snow does BDL and HFD have left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SW flow FTL It may be mitigated though if some areas sort of decouple? Kind of weird to keep warming, but it could happen. It's like a 12 hr brutal cold shot. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The Euro is out to lunch. First of all we won't radiate at all - secondly, the Euro temps at 925 and 850 don't come close to supporting a high of -6. I'd say something 20F higher than that is more likely.2m temps on my maps didnt appear close to that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The Euro is out to lunch. First of all we won't radiate at all - secondly, the Euro temps at 925 and 850 don't come close to supporting a high of -6. I'd say something 20F higher than that is more likely. We have an internal site that I think it is straight 2mt temp data and not blended in anyway (Coastalwx may know). It has BDL at 20/-1 on Thursday off the (Low res I think) Euro. Most of the day is in the teens, but we warm in the evening and overnight on SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 We have an internal site that I think it is straight 2mt temp data and not blended in anyway (Coastalwx may know). It has BDL at 20/-1 on Thursday off the (Low res I think) Euro. Most of the day is in the teens, but we warm in the evening and overnight on SW flow. I think it's just raw data. Not sure on the resolution though. Not sure it warms that much though at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It may be mitigated though if some areas sort of decouple? Kind of weird to keep warming, but it could happen. It's like a 12 hr brutal cold shot. I guess we'll see. I would think the timing differences between the Nam and the GFS would have serious implications on who might decouple. Nam would seem a lot more bullish on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 We have an internal site that I think it is straight 2mt temp data and not blended in anyway (Coastalwx may know). It has BDL at 20/-1 on Thursday off the (Low res I think) Euro. Most of the day is in the teens, but we warm in the evening and overnight on SW flow. Yeah it's the high res Euro that seems to have the super-cold 2m temp bias for whatever reason. The lower res Euro is definitely more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Will the lows rival Jan 2004? I know it is much shorter lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Will the lows rival Jan 2004? I know it is much shorter lived I don't think so...we are about 4C warmer than that outbreak aloft..2004 got to like -31 or -32C 850 temps and this one is more like -27C...perhaps briefly -28C...this is for ORH. I see ORH maybe getting to like -6F or -7F or so vs -12F in 2004. Also, this is a quick shot, so I definitely don't see a daytime high barely above 0F like that year. We'd need it to hang around another 8-10 hours. The low temps are what will be the story of this outbreak. Christmas 1980 had a very short duration (but intense) cold shot too...it lasted basically like 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I don't think so...we are about 4C warmer than that outbreak aloft..2004 got to like -31 or -32C 850 temps and this one is more like -27C...perhaps briefly -28C...this is for ORH. I see ORH maybe getting to like -6F or -7F or so vs -12F in 2004. Also, this is a quick shot, so I definitely don't see a daytime high barely above 0F like that year. We'd need it to hang around another 8-10 hours. The low temps are what will be the story of this outbreak. Christmas 1980 had a very short duration (but intense) cold shot too...it lasted basically like 24 hours. My plan is to stay indoors this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I don't think so...we are about 4C warmer than that outbreak aloft..2004 got to like -31 or -32C 850 temps and this one is more like -27C...perhaps briefly -28C...this is for ORH. I see ORH maybe getting to like -6F or -7F or so vs -12F in 2004. Also, this is a quick shot, so I definitely don't see a daytime high barely above 0F like that year. We'd need it to hang around another 8-10 hours. The low temps are what will be the story of this outbreak. Christmas 1980 had a very short duration (but intense) cold shot too...it lasted basically like 24 hours. Was thinking about 1980 earlier. The core of that cold came in around 12z with that one and temperatures dropped after sunrise. This one will be about 6-10 hours earlier in the day I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 MET guidance is -6F and MAV is -3F for ORH on Wed night/Thu morning. I'd probably side with the MET at the moment...but I'd feel better about it if we even got a light coating of snow from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 So this set up is coldest for the higher elevations /non radiators right ? Also prob not a huge spread between Boston and the burbs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 So this set up is coldest for the higher elevations /non radiators right ? Also prob not a huge spread between Boston and the burbs ? Yeah numbers are pretty uniform since its strong CAA from the NNW...BOS will still have the UHI, but it won't be as glaring. MET is 3F and MAV is 4F for BOS, but I'm guessing those numbers will come down there because the usual BOS climo is playing into that still about 60-72 hours out. I'm not sure BOS will go below 0F, but it will be close. I'd think they would if we had good snow cover across the CP to the north of BOS, but unless the clipper can dust things with an inch or so, then they won't have that advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 So this set up is coldest for the higher elevations /non radiators right ? Also prob not a huge spread between Boston and the burbs ? Another resemblance to 2004, as the wind never quit. My coldest afternoon highs here, -11 and -8, were on days with lows of -23 and -22. Plenty cold but nothing extraordinary like the highs - my median bottom-of-winter temp is -24. 12z GFS suggests Thursday temps about 0/-15 at my place, assuming no cheap start/end of period highs. It also sports an H5 temp of -49C at FVE, about the lowest I've ever noted, and about 0.15" total qpf in the foothills for the entire 16-day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yeah numbers are pretty uniform since its strong CAA from the NNW...BOS will still have the UHI, but it won't be as glaring. MET is 3F and MAV is 4F for BOS, but I'm guessing those numbers will come down there because the usual BOS climo is playing into that still about 60-72 hours out. I'm not sure BOS will go below 0F, but it will be close. I'd think they would if we had good snow cover across the CP to the north of BOS, but unless the clipper can dust things with an inch or so, then they won't have that advantage. Just looked at MAV/MET for TAN and the GFS is actually coming in colder then the NAM right now. GFS is just below 0F and the NAM slightly above. Will have to keep an eye on the winds. If they go calm and we have clear skies, I'll take the under. I'm think -5/-6F right now. Not quite the coldest reading I've seen in my 10 years living there but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I don't think so...we are about 4C warmer than that outbreak aloft..2004 got to like -31 or -32C 850 temps and this one is more like -27C...perhaps briefly -28C...this is for ORH. I see ORH maybe getting to like -6F or -7F or so vs -12F in 2004. Also, this is a quick shot, so I definitely don't see a daytime high barely above 0F like that year. We'd need it to hang around another 8-10 hours. The low temps are what will be the story of this outbreak. Christmas 1980 had a very short duration (but intense) cold shot too...it lasted basically like 24 hours. Yeah that trend was headed that way ... but since about three days ago the signal has been taming some. No kidding about the quick shot! 12-18 hour period where the temperatures are hugely controlled by the advention terms. This is the type of air mass we get in winter that almost entirely mutes the effect of the feebled sun. 1pm low, 1am high Nice! Although ... I haven't looked at the timing as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 the Canadian looks a little juicier on the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Verbatim the GFS OP is ~ 6 hours of steady light snow for all of New England for Friday. Edit: looks dryer on the Para GFS... Edit 2: Also Tuesday of next week looks like a chance for a coastal to me : ) I'm seeing a kinky little s/w over the MA that certainly has room to slide north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 James gets his 4" on Friday on the Canadian from that clipper. Would be another elevated ratio event likely if it did verify(18z GFS had ~15:1 ratios in the text data when it had this which would seem about right). GFS and ParaGFS both were lighter on QPF overall and kept the best of it in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Pretty comical gfs run verbatim. Finds a way to drop virtually zero snow over the entire run and then, you guessed it, has a nice big cutter at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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