ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Even the reinforcing cold next weekend looks pretty impressive with sub -20C 850mb temps for all of New England. Both of the cold shots come in at excellent angles for maximizing the cold in New England...from near the S tip of James Bay SSE right along the Ontario/Quebec border and into NE. Much better than having the cold drop into the northern plains, then midwest and then swinging east across PA/NY...the cold is much more modified and adiabatically warmed too from that direction. So if those keep showing -24 to -26 850s getting down to the pike, there's a realistic chance that BOS could go below 0F in both outbreaks...but we'd need 850 to stay at least that cold on the models and probably snow cover from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That is an impressive cold shot. Keep pumping up those Yukon territories heights. Even the 2nd clipper could need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Both US models advertising that classic SRNH SMaine invt signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Both of the cold shots come in at excellent angles for maximizing the cold in New England...from near the S tip of James Bay SSE right along the Ontario/Quebec border and into NE. Much better than having the cold drop into the northern plains, then midwest and then swinging east across PA/NY...the cold is much more modified and adiabatically warmed too from that direction. So if those keep showing -24 to -26 850s getting down to the pike, there's a realistic chance that BOS could go below 0F in both outbreaks...but we'd need 850 to stay at least that cold on the models and probably snow cover from the clipper. Yeah, this trajectory makes me think there won't be modification; if anything it could even trend colder if there is a snowpack. I remember with last year's early February "vortex" cold, that had more of a NW trajectory so it downsloped and moderated somewhat...850s were similar then to what's projected on Thursday morning. So it could definitely get colder with this upcoming outbreak -- particularly in New England -- but even in the NYC area too than it did all of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pretty good GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pretty good GFS run. Remains consistent with that nice PNA spike as we approach mid-month. That could def be a period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Getting legit excited for the PNA ridge where we can actually get snow with out needing a short wave to go thru a meat grinder to give us a real snow storm. Hoping tuesday lays down a couple inches to maximize this seemingly rare due north cold delivery which looks to maximize Boston's ability to plunge to zero or just below so long as modeled temps get to -25c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 and then there is the CMC depiction of the cold shot next Thursday: only about 5 C colder than other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 -30C 850s to the Pike. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Where's James? The Euro is pretty potent with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice warning criteria for the Midcoast of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Where's James? The Euro is pretty potent with the clipper. I know right, James would love this. This is the best the clipper looked so far on the Euro. Looks like a good 3-6 for CT RI and SE MA applying 15:1. Still a lot of runs out, like an eternity in model land, hopefully the trend continues. The GFS & Para GFS looked better setup-wise with the clipper diving south but QPF lightened quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm not worried about QPF right now with a favorable track the QPF will change for the better. I like where we stand with the clipper right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm not worried about QPF right now with a favorable track the QPF will change for the better. I like where we stand with the clipper right now. Agreed. The 00Z GFS/EC cycles look the most promising so far. The 12Z mean on the EC was north, we'll have to see how the 00Z cycle looks tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Man, that is some sick cold on the GFS...it has 2m temps in the lower single numbers over areas like ORH on Thursday afternoon at 18z. Almost perfect delievery vector for maximizing cold in New England.Something we never even achieved during last years infamous polar vortex... we never saw the core of the cold last winter, always stayed out near the lakes and midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah its going to get very cold this upcoming week, we are now within 4 days and 6 hours of the clipper hitting the area. 6z GFS maintains a track to the southeast of ACK and the benchmark, I would like to see the shortwave sharpen up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 6z GFS parallel model is now further southeast than the 6z GFS operational model run today with the secondary surface low. Barely has any precip over the region. Strengthens later than the 6z GFS and 00z models. 00z Runs on Monday will be very important as the energy will be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 As of right now..it looks like a 2-4 lolli 5 type of deal region wide. Wild card is s coast and if they are a bit too warm in the BL on sw winds. Those SST's are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 6z GFS parallel model is now further southeast than the 6z GFS operational model run today with the secondary surface low. Barely has any precip over the region. Strengthens later than the 6z GFS and 00z models. 00z Runs on Monday will be very important as the energy will be sampled. I think that feature is good for a band of light snow ... dusting to an inch or two type snow, in cold profile, and the sun dimly visible during, like a glowing orb. I used to live in Michigan and out that way, a cold profile clipper can even snow down to .75 mi vis with the sun still dimly visible like that. Anyway, it's been in every oper. GFS run since like 5 days worth, and even the Euro has it -- just different handling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 As of right now..it looks like a 2-4 lolli 5 type of deal region wide. Wild card is s coast and if they are a bit too warm in the BL on sw winds. Those SST's are warm If the coastal areas are too warm it is not likely a function of SW winds... The I-95 corridor N of DC is still in the clutches of CAD by that 1040mb polar high only now starting to edge E of upper Maine. Outside of variability there is no gradient supporting a SW wind anywhere... That won't be true come tomorrow morning, when the synopsis et al is utterly changed... But through this evening, no - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 As of right now..it looks like a 2-4 lolli 5 type of deal region wide. Wild card is s coast and if they are a bit too warm in the BL on sw winds. Those SST's are warm If the coastal areas are too warm it is not likely a function of SW winds... The I-95 corridor N of DC is still in the clutches of CAD by that 1040mb polar high only now starting to edge E of upper Maine. Outside of variability there is no gradient supporting a SW wind anywhere... That won't be true come tomorrow morning, when the synopsis et al is utterly changed... But through this evening, no - I think Blizz was talking about the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think Blizz was talking about the clipper.Yuppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yuppers Oh, ha. Sorry - That's got a "polar warm sector" it's toting along. But I don't think SNE gets on the south side of the boundary, anyway. The oper. GFS does that on the next one, later the following weekend though. It's when it 32F and smells like rain, but the cold front comes through with whisked snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Whats maximum threshold for tuesdays event per gfs/ european Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Whats maximum threshold for tuesdays event per gfs/ europeanCouple inches looks like upper threshold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS plunges -35C 850s into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS has lows in SNE generally -4 to -8 Thursday morning away from water and some -10's up in MPM land with deeper snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And GFS typically is warm biased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Keep in mind winds will be gusting 30-35mph with those temps. It's not a radiating cold so hills will have colder low temps than valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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