mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Why is BOX talking about rain with the clipper for the s coast ? That's an all snow event clear to Block Island with those thicknesses ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150102+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150102+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 CONFIDENT S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...REMAINING SNOW ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So has this warmed in recent runs? I thought this was pretty damn cold for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Taunton is wrong, it remains all snow, heavier precip hits Cape and the Islands, with .25 to .50" of QPF, leads to 3-6" or with ratios its 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Taunton is wrong, it remains all snow, heavier precip hits Cape and the Islands, with .25 to .50" of QPF, leads to 3-6" or with ratios its 4-8" All models have them above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So has this warmed in recent runs? I thought this was pretty damn cold for everyone Bottom 1000 feet are above freezing on the south coast and cape. Verbatim from model output and I don't think that's changed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Taunton is wrong, it remains all snow, heavier precip hits Cape and the Islands, with .25 to .50" of QPF, leads to 3-6" or with ratios its 4-8"Are you including snow from the OES tsunami forcing the air up over the homes and docks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Taunton is wrong, it remains all snow, heavier precip hits Cape and the Islands, with .25 to .50" of QPF, leads to 3-6" or with ratios its 4-8" You are hereby promoted to lead forecaster at box. Move over friends, king James is coming to save you from egg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Scott does that include Cape Cod going above freezing too, or just Block Island, RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Scott does that include Cape Cod going above freezing too, or just Block Island, RI? You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The heavier precip settles in and we get 3-6" regardless of warmer surface temps. I could see Cape Cod and Islands getting 3-6" of paste while areas further inland get 2-4" of fluff. Also Kevin, the tsunami occurs after the clipper moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The heavier precip settles in and we get 3-6" regardless of warmer surface temps. I could see Cape Cod and Islands getting 3-6" of paste while areas further inland get 2-4" of fluff. Also Kevin, the tsunami occurs after the clipper moves out. There isn't a model out there giving 3-6 for any person on the bb in sne. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Well as it is, that may be tough to do. I wouldn't worry anyways, but just saying...don't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bottom 1000 feet are above freezing on the south coast and cape. Verbatim from model output and I don't think that's changed much. Gotcha. I thought the real cold temps would help ratios, I guess in that area it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 There isn't a model out there giving 3-6 for any person on the bb in sne. Fact. I said Cape and Islands get 3-6", while the rest of SNE gets 1-3, or 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 James may be Kevin's son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I've seen it rain here in NYC with 522 thicknesses before when a clipper passes near or to our north, more often in December than January or February but definitely means the Cape or South Coast could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I like the OES look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I've seen it rain here in NYC with 522 thicknesses before when a clipper passes near or to our north, more often in December than January or February but definitely means the Cape or South Coast could.most of the snow in NYC unless its 1-2 per hour melts as it descends through the Canyons. I was there early 70s during a clipper,all surrounded areas picked up a fluffy 3-4 in the Canyons it looked like it rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hereafter, this thread is now openly gay for the Tuesday clipper, despite being titled for model discussion. I approve this massage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would like the winds to be more northerly behind the clipper, depends upon how strong the vort max is and where it goes. Still got less than five days away from the event itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like it's James against the world again. He nailed a clipper last December when nobody gave it a chance... can he do it again? Tune into Lifetime for the new, exclusive to AMWX event, Restless Weenies: Hope in the Gulf Steam 2. Tuesday only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I said Cape and Islands get 3-6", while the rest of SNE gets 1-3, or 2-4" Ok let me repeat my good weenie friend. There is no guidance that gives anyone in sne 3-6. Last I heard Cape is part of sne. Islands too. But I hope you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice look tonight on the gfs for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice look tonight on the gfs for the clipper. Yeah although the QPF is light, that is a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice look tonight on the gfs for the clipper. I wish it didn't dampen out the vortmax so fast...but the location is really nice. It goes underneath us which is what we want for more upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I wish it didn't dampen out the vortmax so fast...but the location is really nice. It goes underneath us which is what we want for more upside. I wonder if that s/w behind it is messing things up too. The s/w starts out looking ok by Chicago, but sort of flattens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Man, that is some sick cold on the GFS...it has 2m temps in the lower single numbers over areas like ORH on Thursday afternoon at 18z. Almost perfect delievery vector for maximizing cold in New England. We'll just have to see if we can lay some fresh snow before it and see if models don't modify it between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Man I thought the clipper was going to show us something this run. That is a pretty good spot for that to be if you want a more substantial system. Have to keep a close eye on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Even the reinforcing cold next weekend looks pretty impressive with sub -20C 850mb temps for all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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