dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That was actually a pretty wintery run right to the end of the Euro with another possible SWFE/Miller B type system right at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 You get in on it but coastal areas are progged for enhancement (some). Probably once pocket of enhancement near KBEV, and another near Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That was actually a pretty wintery run right to the end of the Euro with another possible SWFE/Miller B type system right at day 10 The Euro keeps delaying the warmup, every run its at Day 10, meanwhile 3 days ago it was at Day 10 and by now our Day 10 should be a torch if that was extrapolated out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The Euro keeps delaying the warmup, every run its at Day 10, meanwhile 3 days ago it was at Day 10 and by now our Day 10 should be a torch if that was extrapolated out. Yeah seems like its getting pushed out some, We will take whatever we can before a relaxation, Pattern changes whether its warmer or colder always seem to be delayed going out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Probably once pocket of enhancement near KBEV, and another near Scooter. It wasn't really NE wind type stuff. It was more like the low "got its feet wet" and gently bumped up QPF a tad. One of those deals. Anyways, it will change a bunch I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 It wasn't really NE wind type stuff. It was more like the low "got its feet wet" and gently bumped up QPF a tad. One of those deals. Anyways, it will change a bunch I am sure. Yeah it was more of a southerly flow infusion of Atlantic moisture into the system before it exits stage right. That happens sometimes with these clippers...they'll try and redevelop at the last second along the baroclinic zone to the southeast where WAA is. If we can keep the vortmax a bit more consolidated and track just underneath us, then it would probably be a pretty nice system with some more upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah it was more of a southerly flow infusion of Atlantic moisture into the system before it exits stage right. That happens sometimes with these clippers...they'll try and redevelop at the last second along the baroclinic zone to the southeast where WAA is. If we can keep the vortmax a bit more consolidated and track just underneath us, then it would probably be a pretty nice system with some more upside. The waters are mild relatively speaking, so it won't take much. They're may even be a bit of a CF too with milder air trying to move over extreme SE MA, but very cold elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like 24 hour QPF amounts from the clipper are fairly widespread 0.1-0.25" in NNE and SNE. I'd hit it's 0.15" up here...get some ratios and get close to Advisory level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like 24 hour QPF amounts from the clipper are fairly widespread 0.1-0.25" in NNE and SNE. I'd hit it's 0.15" up here...get some ratios and get close to Advisory level snow. High ratio fluff, Instead of a shovel you can use a broom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 High ratio fluff, Instead of a shovel you can use a broom Liking the SWFE parade on the EURO...it's got another one at day 9-10. Do a couple of those mixed in with some fluffy clippers for wintery feel and we'll make out ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Liking the SWFE parade on the EURO...it's got another one at day 9-10. Do a couple of those mixed in with some fluffy clippers for wintery feel and we'll make out ok. That was a great cold wintery run, Make lemonade while we have the lemons so they say, At least the chances are there, Details to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm having trouble understanding the difference between a "pattern" and a "model" thread. Can't have one without the other, ...so it seems entirely redundant. Anyway, just looked at the 12z Euro (oper.) and one aspect that stood out to me is that between 24 and 96 hours, the ridge in the far E Pacific has migrated over the Rockies' longitudes. That is typically much better for coherent S/W translations over the E. And even the clipper system that has been (interestingly enough...) more consistently presented on the GFS cycles, has a loud signature in the 500mb flow. What's presenting inhibition is that the heights in the deep S/SE are not declining, ...despite the rise in heights over the Rockies. Not sure what to make of that, could be right, or it could be the Euro being too amp on a D5 chart (gee, THAT never happens..). But the heights conserving so high over Florida is really bringing the flat rock skipping off a pond metaphor to good use. I think it is worth it to watch that clipper closely... We are getting a rather abrupt GEFs tonal change in their thinking of where the PNA will end up over the next 10 days, and so some kind of statistical/balancing event is favored. If the Euro is conserving too much down there, that a solution more akin to what the GFS showed back when said clip' was a D9er becomes more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm having trouble understanding the difference between a "pattern" and a "model" thread. Can't have one without the other, ...so it seems entirely redundant. Anyway, just looked at the 12z Euro (oper.) and one aspect that stood out to me is that between 24 and 96 hours, the ridge in the far E Pacific has migrated over the Rockies' longitudes. That is typically much better for coherent S/W translations over the E. And even the clipper system that has been (interestingly enough...) more consistently presented on the GFS cycles, has a loud signature in the 500mb flow. What's presenting inhibition is that the heights in the deep S/SE are not declining, ...despite the rise in heights over the Rockies. Not sure what to make of that, could be right, or it could be the Euro being too amp on a D5 chart (gee, THAT never happens..). But the heights conserving so high over Florida is really bringing the flat rock skipping off a pond metaphor to good use. I think it is worth it to watch that clipper closely... We are getting a rather abrupt GEFs tonal change in their thinking of where the PNA will end up over the next 10 days, and so some kind of statistical/balancing event is favored. If the Euro is conserving to much down there, that a solution more akin to what the GFS showed back when said clip' was a D9er becomes more plausible. The pattern thread is more for ensemble/indice week+ discussion whereas this thread is more for analyzing deterministic runs or specific threats/events. The long term pattern talk was buried too much by op run play by play for d4-8 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Clipper is meh on the gfs. Goes over NNE, and develops a low off the coast too late for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS is a little weaker with the surface low, but still produces 2-5" of snow over Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Clipper is meh on the gfs. Goes over NNE, and develops a low off the coast too late for most What are you looking at, the GFS operational run goes southeast of ACK, not into NNE. Maybe the parallel GFS does, but not the operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What are you looking at, the GFS operational run goes southeast of ACK, not into NNE. Maybe the parallel GFS does, but not the operational model. I could be wrong, but too me, it looks like one low kind of dies out around the lakes and another one forms off way off the coast east of MA. If that analysis is wrong, I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So where did the NNE idea come from if it dies over the lakes, and a new one forms out East of Mass? Just trying to figure out which of you is seeing it correctly lol???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A weak low redevelops south of SNE. That's usually not a bad spot to develop if it can grab some Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A weak low redevelops south of SNE. That's usually not a bad spot to develop if it can grab some Atlantic moisture. Yes, that sounds somewhat interesting/promising if I dare say that?? So the NNE idea was a wrong interpretation by TauntonBlizzard I assume?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I know I'm not in the region anymore lol, but how far south could you see the clipper diving/redeveloping? My guess is not much farther south right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yes, that sounds somewhat interesting/promising if I dare say that?? So the NNE idea was a wrong interpretation by TauntonBlizzard I assume?? Well he was right the primary (albeit very weak) goes well NW and then a new low develops south of SNE, but quickly moves NE. It only would turn interesting if the vortmax was a little stronger and induced cyclogenesis quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Low developed east of LI and moved NE from there on the clipper, Clipped the cape, SE Ct and RI with some light snows but will probably change a few more times over the next few days, Should be a high fluff factor so don't need a lot of qpf to get a decent amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Well he was right the primary (albeit very weak) goes well NW and then a new low develops south of SNE, but quickly moves NE. It only would turn interesting if the vortmax was a little stronger and induced cyclogenesis quicker. Oh I do realize that...and I'm not betting on that at all, just hoping it might get going a lil quicker...but the way we have been going so far, that's a big stretch at this point. But the idea is intriguing at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A weak low redevelops south of SNE. That's usually not a bad spot to develop if it can grab some Atlantic moisture.eastern mass would be nice if we can get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So where did the NNE idea come from if it dies over the lakes, and a new one forms out East of Mass? Just trying to figure out which of you is seeing it correctly lol???? I just looked at it briefly. When I looked at it again it was more towards the northern lakes. That part is kind of irrelevant anyway, what's important is what Scott said. It developed a low south of us. Which I think is what we need for this to produce more than just some very minor accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This sounds like one of those deals Tipster waxes poetically about from college days of yore. Love the battleground being set up Could be some big winners...and big losers...when this is said and done I guess this was in the wrong thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I just looked at it briefly. When I looked at it again it was more towards the northern lakes. That part is kind of irrelevant anyway, what's important is what Scott said. It developed a low south of us. Which I think is what we need for this to produce more than just some very minor accums No worries pal. I agree, we need this to redevelop faster if we want more than just an inch. I'm in Central inland CT(West of the CT River), I might miss out on the enhancement if it's very minor/marginal which is what it looks to be at this point :-(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Why is BOX talking about rain with the clipper for the s coast ? That's an all snow event clear to Block Island with those thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Why is BOX talking about rain with the clipper for the s coast ? That's an all snow event clear to Block Island with those thicknesses Temps get slightly above freezing there, but if it came down hard, it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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