CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lol...MAV with 60 Sunday at BOS. 60 Sunday, flirting with 0 Thursday? Sunday will torch around here, but oh what a change we will have. That s/w after the clipper is somewhat interesting. It's trying to develop an inv trough or more like a strong secondary fropa. Might be a little snow with that. That's the feature I thought looked WINDEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sunday will torch around here, but oh what a change we will have. That s/w after the clipper is somewhat interesting. It's trying to develop an inv trough or more like a strong secondary fropa. Might be a little snow with that. That's the feature I thought looked WINDEX. I've been watching that feature as well. It's going to be tough to pull something off with such a fast flow in the Atlantic, but the trough with that is already more consolidated than it was with the clipper. If we could more efficiently bridge the PNA and EPO ridge out west, then that shortwave after the clipper could consolidate earlier and we'd get a sneaky late-blooming Miller B or inverted trough. Seasonal trends would argue against that of course, but hey you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I've been watching that feature as well. It's going to be tough to pull something off with such a fast flow in the Atlantic, but the trough with that is already more consolidated than it was with the clipper. If we could more efficiently bridge the PNA and EPO ridge out west, then that shortwave after the clipper could consolidate earlier and we'd get a sneaky late-blooming Miller B. Seasonal trends would argue against that of course, but hey you never know. Would I be correct in saying that the GFS does better with the northern stream than most guidance? And if so, is it more accurate during La NInas then EL NInos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sunday will torch around here, but oh what a change we will have. That s/w after the clipper is somewhat interesting. It's trying to develop an inv trough or more like a strong secondary fropa. Might be a little snow with that. That's the feature I thought looked WINDEX. This sounds like one of those deals Tipster waxes poetically about from college days of yore. Love the battleground being set up Could be some big winners...and big losers...when this is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Would I be correct in saying that the GFS does better with the northern stream than most guidance? And if so, is it more accurate during La NInas then EL NInos? I'm speaking anecdotally, but I have found the GFS is better with northern stream and La Nina patters and the Euro is better with southern streams and El Ninos. But it's not black-and-white...the Euro tends to do better when there is a SE ridge influence...07-08 is a prime example of when the GFS would often be too far south with SWFEs and the Euro wouldn't budge and would be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm speaking anecdotally, but I have found the GFS is better with northern stream and La Nina patters and the Euro is better with southern streams and El Ninos. But it's not black-and-white...the Euro tends to do better when there is a SE ridge influence...07-08 is a prime example of when the GFS would often be too far south with SWFEs and the Euro wouldn't budge and would be correct. I think that may be the case. I recall the Euro having all sorts of problems in 2010-11 and not just with Boxing Day. I think it backed off on 1/26 - 1/27/11 24 hours before game time and got burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think that may be the case. I recall the Euro having all sorts of problems in 2010-11 and not just with Boxing Day. I think it backed off on 1/26 - 1/27/11 24 hours before game time and got burned. It was actually the only model to have that storm. It did well that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A nice weenie GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah the GFS struggled with the Boxing Day 2010 storm pretty hard, was suppressed and dealing with feedback issues with so much energy within the long wave trough over the Eastern US. I think models are still having a hard time without the sampled amount of energy being involved in the overall dynamics of the situation over the Eastern US within the 120-168 hour mark. Those 48 hours could mean the difference between a weak pathetic clipper ie the GFS parallel, or a wound up bomb over the benchmark ie the GFS two days ago. We need to see how much energy is injected and how strong the energy is before we have a clue still, but I think confidence is growing in some type of clipper and northern stream energy impacting the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS this upcoming week with frigid air and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah the GFS struggled with the Boxing Day 2010 storm pretty hard, was suppressed and dealing with feedback issues with so much energy within the long wave trough over the Eastern US. I think models are still having a hard time without the sampled amount of energy being involved in the overall dynamics of the situation over the Eastern US within the 120-168 hour mark. Those 48 hours could mean the difference between a weak pathetic clipper ie the GFS parallel, or a wound up bomb over the benchmark ie the GFS two days ago. We need to see how much energy is injected and how strong the energy is before we have a clue still, but I think confidence is growing in some type of clipper and northern stream energy impacting the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS this upcoming week with frigid air and snowfall. Re: Boxing Day he euro never got it until the final runs. Gfs won big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A nice weenie GFS run.Can you elaborate since this is the model thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gfs op with our NAO at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Can you elaborate since this is the model thread? It's wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 RGEM for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 MEX guidance with some robust numbers: BOS is 1+6 on the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Develops a nice +PNA and a miller B near the end. This after the clipper and another system near day 10. But, it's the op run and we know how those go, so don't get too worked up...but it's kind of consistent.Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 No, the GFS suffered through major feedback problems with a glob of convection on the southeast side of the surface low while going through bombogenesis, it ended up much further northwest and tucked into the LI coastline. The EURO also suffered in the mid range, but both models hooked onto the idea with 2 days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 MEX guidance with some robust numbers: BOS is 1+6 on the clipper. What does that mean? I'm not familiar with the MEX guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It was actually the only model to have that storm. It did well that winter. The GFS did better than it on Boxing Day and it did not come far enough north with 1/26. That's what I remember. I guess I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GGEM is really struggling with the clipper idea, its so far out to sea the clipper has no impacts on SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The GFS did better than it on Boxing Day and it did not come far enough north with 1/26. That's what I remember. I guess I'm wrong. The GFS did better on Boxing Day, but the euro actually was the closest to 1/26 and even then it wasn't far enough north. It also did better in the 1/12 event too iirc. Perhaps 1/21 too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What does that mean? I'm not familiar with the MEX guidance. 1 means 1-2 on the prog. 6 means 6-8. 8 means 8+. Eye candy for now but encouraging sign for midweek snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the gfs looked better with the clipper. Sent it south of us this run and tried to get a little something going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the gfs looked better with the clipper. Sent it south of us this run and tried to get a little something going It did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 1 means 1-2 on the prog. 6 means 6-8. 8 means 8+. Eye candy for now but encouraging sign for midweek snow for most of us. So that's good news if we want more snow correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The Canadian has insane cold coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the gfs looked better with the clipper. Sent it south of us this run and tried to get a little something going This is one case the GFS may be the best model, a someone else just posted, it does real well with clippers and pure northern stream disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GGEM is really struggling with the clipper idea, its so far out to sea the clipper has no impacts on SNE. Let's hope it is struggling and not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So that's good news if we want more snow correct? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It did. It is so close with that extra troughing, if we can get that northern stream lead shortwave to slow down some and let the secondary shortwave catch up we can get phasing within the trough and produce a big time snowstorm, but again it hasn't shown that idea for the last two days of runs, its a bummer it lost that idea, it will be interesting to see the 00z EURO as it showed something similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.