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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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Moosup ears pricked up

What looks Windexy to you?

Some decent moisture in the column, s/w moving in, and a shot of bitter cold behind the front. This was the first run to do that, but it's possible that some SHSN accompany the front if you get one of those lake streamers connecting with it.

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Wow at the 00z NAM...that's a good thump for the pike region even...solid advisory.

We need the precip shield moving in like a wall of white to capitalize on this set up as modeled. Is NAM showing heavy precip rates coming on quickly rather than a slow build up where we piss away precious hours? How quickly is warming the mid levels?

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We need the precip shield moving in like a wall of white to capitalize on this set up as modeled. Is NAM showing heavy precip rates coming on quickly rather than a slow build up where we piss away precious hours? How quickly is warming the mid levels?

 

NAM shows heavier precip at the onset...it only snows for maybe 4-5 hours before mid-level warming takes over but it's moderate/heavy snow so you can rack up a quick 3-5 in that case. But if its more like the 12z/18z GFS, then it would be light snow for a few hours that only accumulates an inch or so before the flip.

 

So that initial WAA fronto band will be the key.

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Yeah that's a warm layer aloft flying in. Verbatim it's like 3-4 hrs of snow near the pike it seems.

 

 

Yeah, it looks like it wants to rip for a short few hours and then flip to pellets and then ZR over the interior...00z NAM actually has places like ORH close to holding onto to ZR until like 12z...might be the type of thing where it goes to 33F rain around 09z and then rots there for several hours before finally mixing out on the SW winds.

 

 

But the snow potential will hinge a lot on how hard it snows for those critical 3-4 hours at the beginning.

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So less ice potential?

 

 

Yeah, it looks like it wants to rip for a short few hours and then flip to pellets and then ZR over the interior...00z NAM actually has places like ORH close to holding onto to ZR until like 12z...might be the type of thing where it goes to 33F rain around 09z and then rots there for several hours before finally mixing out on the SW winds.

 

 

But the snow potential will hinge a lot on how hard it snows for those critical 3-4 hours at the beginning.

It seems to me there is good glazing potential especially for the usual CAD areas.

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Nice I am pumped. Just don't know if my area is a usual CAD area....

 

I wouldn't get too fired up for significant ice just yet. Models have most of the warmth above 800 mb north of the Mass border. That's more a sleet sounding than freezing rain.

 

By the time the warmth lowers to around 850 mb, the low levels have warmed above freezing for those areas.

 

I'm thinking the greatest icing potential is going to be the higher elevations around 1-2 kft, where the precipitation doesn't have enough time to fully refreeze to sleet.

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Lol...MAV with 60 Sunday at BOS. 60 Sunday, flirting with 0 Thursday?

 

and the hot off the press 00Z GFS is still somewhat optimistic on the Tues/Wed clipper. If we can get that to over perform a bit, we might just have something resembling winter around here for a change.

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