CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It might never stop. Just a firehouse of OES Just a white wall of stratocumulus flying west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 For real Scott, or are you just being sarcastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 For real Scott, or are you just being sarcastic lol Eh, I'm not always as big on OES as you are. The GFS has an inv trough type look too which probably helps. It's got a bit of a WINDEX look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah it might not, but winds are too northwesterly for my liking on the 18z GFS.I could see a snow tsunami overtake Harwich , Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah the inverted trough is a little too far north so winds are too westerly, but this is our best chance at accumulating OES in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A little late, but congrats Dendrite on the GGEM from earlier today. We'll have to see what 00z brings. SWFE climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Eh, I'm not always as big on OES as you are. The GFS has an inv trough type look too which probably helps. It's got a bit of a WINDEX look.Moosup ears pricked upWhat looks Windexy to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Moosup ears pricked up What looks Windexy to you? Some decent moisture in the column, s/w moving in, and a shot of bitter cold behind the front. This was the first run to do that, but it's possible that some SHSN accompany the front if you get one of those lake streamers connecting with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I could see a snow tsunami overtake Harwich , MaLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A little late, but congrats Dendrite on the GGEM from earlier today. We'll have to see what 00z brings. SWFE climo. cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_12.png Thicknesses looked kinda high on the GGEM to me...I think it had a toastier layer above H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow at the 00z NAM...that's a good thump for the pike region even...solid advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow at the 00z NAM...that's a good thump for the pike region even...solid advisory. Yeah just looked. Further south with that initial fronto band moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow at the 00z NAM...that's a good thump for the pike region even...solid advisory. We need the precip shield moving in like a wall of white to capitalize on this set up as modeled. Is NAM showing heavy precip rates coming on quickly rather than a slow build up where we piss away precious hours? How quickly is warming the mid levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 We need the precip shield moving in like a wall of white to capitalize on this set up as modeled. Is NAM showing heavy precip rates coming on quickly rather than a slow build up where we piss away precious hours? How quickly is warming the mid levels? NAM shows heavier precip at the onset...it only snows for maybe 4-5 hours before mid-level warming takes over but it's moderate/heavy snow so you can rack up a quick 3-5 in that case. But if its more like the 12z/18z GFS, then it would be light snow for a few hours that only accumulates an inch or so before the flip. So that initial WAA fronto band will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 NAM is pelting here at 54hr despite 850s of -6C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 NAM is pelting here at 54hr despite 850s of -6C. Yeah that's a warm layer aloft flying in. Verbatim it's like 3-4 hrs of snow near the pike it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah that's a warm layer aloft flying in. Verbatim it's like 3-4 hrs of snow near the pike it seems. Yeah, it looks like it wants to rip for a short few hours and then flip to pellets and then ZR over the interior...00z NAM actually has places like ORH close to holding onto to ZR until like 12z...might be the type of thing where it goes to 33F rain around 09z and then rots there for several hours before finally mixing out on the SW winds. But the snow potential will hinge a lot on how hard it snows for those critical 3-4 hours at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah that's a warm layer aloft flying in. Verbatim it's like 3-4 hrs of snow near the pike it seems.The GFS has been 2-3hrs longer with the snow than the NAM with that much colder H75-H85 layer. I think it's going to cave though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm excited for my last rain event for the next two weeks hopefully. So I won't have to cry through another storm system wasting winter cold away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Seems to be moving in a bit faster too, which isn't a surprise. That second batch of rain in response to that s/w energy is annoying. Hopefully it stays east of ORH. I'm sort of hopeful for an inch or so. Maybe two if it thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm excited for my last rain event for the next two weeks hopefully. So I won't have to cry through another storm system wasting winter cold away. You are in cape cod right? Bold statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 You are in cape cod right? Bold statement. Yeah I am known to be a bold person, so I state the boldness of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Best post of day, James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So less ice potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thank you! Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So less ice potential? Yeah, it looks like it wants to rip for a short few hours and then flip to pellets and then ZR over the interior...00z NAM actually has places like ORH close to holding onto to ZR until like 12z...might be the type of thing where it goes to 33F rain around 09z and then rots there for several hours before finally mixing out on the SW winds. But the snow potential will hinge a lot on how hard it snows for those critical 3-4 hours at the beginning. It seems to me there is good glazing potential especially for the usual CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It seems to me there is good glazing potential especially for the usual CAD areas.Nice I am pumped. Just don't know if my area is a usual CAD area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Nice I am pumped. Just don't know if my area is a usual CAD area.... I wouldn't get too fired up for significant ice just yet. Models have most of the warmth above 800 mb north of the Mass border. That's more a sleet sounding than freezing rain. By the time the warmth lowers to around 850 mb, the low levels have warmed above freezing for those areas. I'm thinking the greatest icing potential is going to be the higher elevations around 1-2 kft, where the precipitation doesn't have enough time to fully refreeze to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lol...MAV with 60 Sunday at BOS. 60 Sunday, flirting with 0 Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lol...MAV with 60 Sunday at BOS. 60 Sunday, flirting with 0 Thursday? and the hot off the press 00Z GFS is still somewhat optimistic on the Tues/Wed clipper. If we can get that to over perform a bit, we might just have something resembling winter around here for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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