ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Stronger primary too. Yeah not a good run this time...still some frozen on the front end, but this is a faster flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How are the EURO ensembles on the clipper system next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How are the EURO ensembles on the clipper system next week? Didn't you ask that earlier and didn't Arnold answer it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ok I saw what Arnold had to say about the ensembles. Seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 like a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The trend is a colder airmass after Sunday, yes, but we stated the risk is certainly something moving over us or west with a +NAO. There are a lot of lows heading our way and just like last year, so will probably produce and some will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The trend is a colder airmass after Sunday, yes, but we stated the risk is certainly something moving over us or west with a +NAO. There are a lot of lows heading our way and just like last year, so will probably produce and some will cut. Hey I'm with you on that Scott. You and Will and others do provide some great insight for all of us. I think everybody on here just needs one to produce...we haven't had that YET in SNE this young season. I certainly do agree that we have numerous chances coming up, which is exciting. Thanks again for the wise info/words, it is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah not a good run this time...still some frozen on the front end, but this is a faster flip. How far north does the mix precip make it? Is this more bad news for the NH ski resorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 How far north does the mix precip make it? Is this more bad news for the NH ski resorts? All the resorts get mixed precip...I'm not sure if its bad news though. There will be a net gain in snow out of it up there and there should be some snow on the backside to refresh it. I suppose it could get icy after the refreeze. A lot will depend just how long they warm up for. We don't really know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro coming in similar to 00z...maybe a shade warmer aloft...but at the sfc the CAD signal is actually a bit better. This could actually mean a more prolonged period of icing over the interior than what the 00z run would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 All the resorts get mixed precip...I'm not sure if its bad news though. There will be a net gain in snow out of it up there and there should be some snow on the backside to refresh it. I suppose it could get icy after the refreeze. A lot will depend just how long they warm up for. We don't really know yet. Net gain for all. I still think you guys in the ORH hills can come out of this white. I guess it'd say anyone that can lay down 3" on the front end, topped with some IP/ZR or even just a 34-35F rain will have a net gain. Usually in these events, like 3" front-side seems to be about the point when you can come out of it with snow on the ground...especially if you aren't in like an urban area or city. Throw 3" down on HubbDave's lawn with some ice crust on top and I don't see that all melting even in a solid 12-hour warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Net gain for all. I still think you guys in the ORH hills can come out of this white. I guess it'd say anyone that can lay down 3" on the front end, topped with some IP/ZR or even just a 34-35F rain will have a net gain. Usually in these events, like 3" front-side seems to be about the point when you can come out of it with snow on the ground. A lot will depend on any triple point low...it will be tough to survive 2-3" of snow (even with a glaze on it) if we rocket into the mid 40s or higher for several hours. The 12z Euro shows a more defined triple point low so I'd guess that would limit the sfc warmth...even more than the 2m temps verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro coming in similar to 00z...maybe a shade warmer aloft...but at the sfc the CAD signal is actually a bit better. This could actually mean a more prolonged period of icing over the interior than what the 00z run would indicate. I'm glad your here to provide the interpretation--my take was this was a rainer through and through based on the 24-hour intervals I'm seeing. 22.8/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro coming in similar to 00z...maybe a shade warmer aloft...but at the sfc the CAD signal is actually a bit better. This could actually mean a more prolonged period of icing over the interior than what the 00z run would indicate. Terrible for me personally. The surface can trend as cold as it wants, I need the mid levels. I'll go to plain rain, not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm glad your here to provide the interpretation--my take was this was a rainer through and through based on the 24-hour intervals I'm seeing. 22.8/3 Nope..prob 2-3 inches of snow N of the pike on the front...then a period of icing over the interior...the further north, the longer it lasts. Then ending as some light rain or drizzle. That's verbatim on the 12z Euro. Things could get better or worse from here on out...I'm not sure I'd favor either side of the coin right now. The SE ridge is just a pig in this system...but the antecedent airmass is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If we are getting a trend towards a stronger triple point low that would be good, since we are still day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro coming in similar to 00z...maybe a shade warmer aloft...but at the sfc the CAD signal is actually a bit better. This could actually mean a more prolonged period of icing over the interior than what the 00z run would indicate. The 925mb cold is real hard to scour out. Just looking at MVL up here its got 0C H85 and -4C H925...going to +6C at H85 but 0C at H925, after most precip has fallen. There's a sleet signal there for a while east of the Greens/Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 A lot will depend on any triple point low...it will be tough to survive 2-3" of snow (even with a glaze on it) if we rocket into the mid 40s or higher for several hours. The 12z Euro shows a more defined triple point low so I'd guess that would limit the sfc warmth...even more than the 2m temps verbatim. Yeah 2-3" and 3-4" may be the difference though between someone having nothing and a crusty white covering....but moot point at this time. I generally think though if you can put 1/2" liquid down as frozen and freezing, that's going to take a lot of energy to completely melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm glad your here to provide the interpretation--my take was this was a rainer through and through based on the 24-hour intervals I'm seeing. 22.8/3 If you start as rain It will be of the freezing variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Although the model shows it, does it matter the CAD signal on the EC is better? I thought it struggles with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Clipper seems to have fallen apart this EURO run. Still some mood snows for SE New England, but definitely doesn't look like the GFS. GFS has been more stable lately it seems though, and so far out, not worth really thinking about. One thing for certain...its going to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Most folks south of the NH border should plan on an hour or 2 of sleet and snow then bit of zr then a transition to rain. We've all been thru enough of these over the years..These things typically trend warmer..not colder. Maybe MPM stays cold..but the rest of us are cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Most of the US is really dry at day 7... look at that beast of a 1049mb high in the center of the country. Cold, cold, and colder. Buy stock in chapstick and skin moisturizer, dry and very cold with high pressure from coast to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Clipper seems to have fallen apart this EURO run. Still some mood snows for SE New England, but definitely doesn't look like the GFS. GFS has been more stable lately it seems though, and so far out, not worth really thinking about. One thing for certain...its going to be cold. Comes close to a late bloomer for E MA and Maine...long ways out on the clipper though. Could easily end up nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Most folks south of the NH border should plan on an hour or 2 of sleet and snow then bit of zr then a transition to rain. We've all been thru enough of these over the years..These things typically trend warmer..not colder. Maybe MPM stays cold..but the rest of us are cooked This is a gradient thing... I've noticed you've mentioned south of NH like 10 times so far today, but its not going to be that cut and dry. I would say south of the Pike, yes, then up near RT 2 they can hold it for a while longer like Whitemister, HubbDave, MPM, etc. I wouldn't just broad brush it so much as south of NH is not all the same in a SWFE. I know you know these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Comes close to a late bloomer for E MA and Maine...long ways out on the clipper though. Could easily end up nothing. Yeah it did strengthen decently once it got out over the Atlantic. I think that one's got more potential than the EURO just showed, but so far away that could simply disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is a gradient thing... I've noticed you've mentioned NH like 10 times so far today, but its not going to be that cut and dry. I would say south of the Pike, yes, then up near RT 2 they can hold it for a while longer like Whitemister, HubbDave, MPM, etc. I wouldn't just broad brush it so much as south of NH is not all the same in a SWFE. If there was a -NAO I'd say yes..but with no snow cover, a Pig Se ridge, and the propensity this season of a 1980's type of winter..this is going to quickly go to rain from south to north. The clear trend has been stronger primary and less and less frozen.. nothing is going to hold off that warming clear up in SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 honestly I don't really think I'm going to warm sector in my area I wouldn't be surprised if I stayed in the 30's on Sunday after an inch or so of snow and sleet and several hours or more of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 If there was a -NAO I'd say yes..but with no snow cover, a Pig Se ridge, and the propensity this season of a 1980's type of winter..this is going to quickly go to rain from south to north. The clear trend has been stronger primary and less and less frozen.. nothing is going to hold off that warming clear up in SNH Verbatim its C-1" south of MA/CT border, prob 1-2" up to pike and 2-4" N of the pike to S NH...that's a gradient. That's how these systems often work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Verbatim its C-1" south of MA/CT border, prob 1-2" up to pike and 2-4" N of the pike to S NH...that's a gradient. That's how these systems often work. That's assuming the warming trend has stopped. For you guys in the game for frozen hopefully it has..my guess is it's not nearly done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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