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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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Anything that falls in SNE would be evaporated outside of elevations one would think... Temps in the 50's Sunday as the warmth pushes in on the euro.

That's not happening for more than a very short time IMHO. We've seen these play out before. Inland will have trouble going above freezing particularly north of the pike. Euro IMHO is dead wrong with that depiction.

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That's not happening for more than a very short time IMHO. We've seen these play out before. Inland will have trouble going above freezing particularly north of the pike. Euro IMHO is dead wrong with that depiction.

The low level cold is almost always underdone and fights longer than expected.. just posting what the euro showed fwiw

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It will be colder than modeled for Saturday night into Sunday, we will hold onto the snow in the interior longer, but coastal plain will turn over to rain quickly Saturday night, High is not in perfect position.  Also for the clipper, the 00z GFS came in stronger with the coastal low redevelopment, while the 00z EURO came is less amplified with less energy involved in the storm process.  Too early to tell for sure, its 6-7 days away now.

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The low level cold is almost always underdone and fights longer than expected.. just posting what the euro showed fwiw

Euro blows past day 5. I would be thinking more about the GFS vs euro in this situation. It's not getting suppressed. I would be more concerned about the low moving over our fanny like the GFS has day 7.

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What a reversal. For so long it was King Euro vs. everyone else.

No, that's more in the day 3 area. Still the best, usually. You should use the ensembles anyways day 5 and beyond. I probably should word it that suppression is still the least of my issue. It still could get grinded I suppose.

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Really starting to hope that this winter turns out to be like 12-13'.  where it is an absolute dud right up until something special happens.

 

After the disaster that 11-12' was it looked like 12-13' was going to be a dud too right up until the Blizzard hit in early Febraury.

 

Can only hope that happens again this year.  I just don't have a good feeling going forward. 

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Really starting to hope that this winter turns out to be like 12-13'.  where it is an absolute dud right up until something special happens.

 

After the disaster that 11-12' was it looked like 12-13' was going to be a dud too right up until the Blizzard hit in early Febraury.

 

Can only hope that happens again this year.  I just don't have a good feeling going forward. 

 

 

I thought there were signs to the promised land in '13 by mid January...obviously from a sensible wx standpoint, the blizzard was the first big snow to hit everyone...but the pattern had changed for the better before that.

 

Snow often comes in bunches in our good patterns...so sometimes it can seem quite bleak until that happens.

 

At any rate, the model guidance is not showing a lack of chances over the next 2 weeks. We will have the clipper/redeveloper threat even if the front end thump turns more into a front end tap.

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I thought there were signs to the promised land in '13 by mid January...obviously from a sensible wx standpoint, the blizzard was the first big snow to hit everyone...but the pattern had changed for the better before that.

 

Snow often comes in bunches in our good patterns...so sometimes it can seem quite bleak until that happens.

 

At any rate, the model guidance is not showing a lack of chances over the next 2 weeks. We will have the clipper/redeveloper threat even if the front end thump turns more into a front end tap.

 

LOL.  It is a possibility.

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