Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wow. Tiger EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 A fun 5-6 days on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GEM also has the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm not worked up over the gem. Euro and gfs both colder. That's the team I'd go with there. The trend for frozen continues. Delayed festivus but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Not much change on the euro. maybe a little warmer in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro is 6+ all of interior cne and nne. 2-4" north of the pike it would seem. Great storm for dendrite I would think over to Bridgton ME in this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How does the clipper look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Anything that falls in SNE would be evaporated outside of elevations one would think... Temps in the 50's Sunday as the warmth pushes in on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro looks really different at 5h run to run... Comparing 12z to 0z... Sort of volatile still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How does the clipper look? No dice, late developing coastal whiffs out to sea.. No point in really focusing on the clipper/redeveloper until after we get a handle on the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Absolutely balls cold 5th-10th. Feet of snow coming for lake effect belts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Anything that falls in SNE would be evaporated outside of elevations one would think... Temps in the 50's Sunday as the warmth pushes in on the euro. That's not happening for more than a very short time IMHO. We've seen these play out before. Inland will have trouble going above freezing particularly north of the pike. Euro IMHO is dead wrong with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 That's not happening for more than a very short time IMHO. We've seen these play out before. Inland will have trouble going above freezing particularly north of the pike. Euro IMHO is dead wrong with that depiction. The low level cold is almost always underdone and fights longer than expected.. just posting what the euro showed fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It will be colder than modeled for Saturday night into Sunday, we will hold onto the snow in the interior longer, but coastal plain will turn over to rain quickly Saturday night, High is not in perfect position. Also for the clipper, the 00z GFS came in stronger with the coastal low redevelopment, while the 00z EURO came is less amplified with less energy involved in the storm process. Too early to tell for sure, its 6-7 days away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The low level cold is almost always underdone and fights longer than expected.. just posting what the euro showed fwiw Euro blows past day 5. I would be thinking more about the GFS vs euro in this situation. It's not getting suppressed. I would be more concerned about the low moving over our fanny like the GFS has day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro blows past day 5. I would be thinking more about the GFS vs euro in this situation. It's not getting suppressed. I would be more concerned about the low moving over our fanny like the GFS has day 7. What a reversal. For so long it was King Euro vs. everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What a reversal. For so long it was King Euro vs. everyone else. No, that's more in the day 3 area. Still the best, usually. You should use the ensembles anyways day 5 and beyond. I probably should word it that suppression is still the least of my issue. It still could get grinded I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Anyone share some ensemble data for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Anyone share some ensemble data for the weekend? euro ens mean has tolland getting into the mid to upper 40s Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Arnold, what do they show for the 7-8th clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Arnold, what do they show for the 7-8th clipper? weak late bloomer than moves south of the maritimes. But at this range there's so much spread that the mean doesn't give me anything really that useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 A fun 5-6 days on the 00z GFS. gfs_tprecip_neng_47.png Lol BTV and 1V4 snow holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Really starting to hope that this winter turns out to be like 12-13'. where it is an absolute dud right up until something special happens. After the disaster that 11-12' was it looked like 12-13' was going to be a dud too right up until the Blizzard hit in early Febraury. Can only hope that happens again this year. I just don't have a good feeling going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Seems to be setting up for a much colder period than we had in 12-13, but without -NAO to block the highs from drifting out to sea and taking storms up to our west, we'll probably have a lot of cutters. We'll just have to get lucky now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Really starting to hope that this winter turns out to be like 12-13'. where it is an absolute dud right up until something special happens. After the disaster that 11-12' was it looked like 12-13' was going to be a dud too right up until the Blizzard hit in early Febraury. Can only hope that happens again this year. I just don't have a good feeling going forward. I thought there were signs to the promised land in '13 by mid January...obviously from a sensible wx standpoint, the blizzard was the first big snow to hit everyone...but the pattern had changed for the better before that. Snow often comes in bunches in our good patterns...so sometimes it can seem quite bleak until that happens. At any rate, the model guidance is not showing a lack of chances over the next 2 weeks. We will have the clipper/redeveloper threat even if the front end thump turns more into a front end tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I thought there were signs to the promised land in '13 by mid January...obviously from a sensible wx standpoint, the blizzard was the first big snow to hit everyone...but the pattern had changed for the better before that. Snow often comes in bunches in our good patterns...so sometimes it can seem quite bleak until that happens. At any rate, the model guidance is not showing a lack of chances over the next 2 weeks. We will have the clipper/redeveloper threat even if the front end thump turns more into a front end tap. LOL. It is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS is going to be warmer I think. That SE ridge is a bit more stout this run. Antecedent airmass doesn't look as cold as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Stronger primary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like 00z euro actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 2-4" front ender. EURO ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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