CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Def colder than last night's ensemble mean. So that's a good trend for snowier. Yeah, it seems a bit faster than the op? Can't really compare thermal fields like 850 because it looked a tad quicker, but I was just going by the overall look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, it seems a bit faster than the op? Can't really compare thermal fields like 850 because it looked a tad quicker, but I was just going by the overall look. It does look a shade faster than the op. The precip is definitely much further northeast than the OP at the same time. At any rate, clearly there is still some decent spread, so we'll just have to wait and see if we start to get a tigher clustering soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 any signs of the redeveloping clipper on the 7-8th of January on the EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 any signs of the redeveloping clipper on the 7-8th of January on the EURO ensembles? Some signs of it, but nothing really prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, but it's tough to compare apples to apples, the ensembles may be a little quicker. It does have a hint of a triple point or secondary. looks like 2 or 3 members have a weak surface reflection near LI. the rest wait til the GOM to get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll wait till it is within NAM's range to see what will really happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 D10 euro ens beings -16C at 850 down to the pike. That's impressive for d10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 D10 euro ens beings -16C at 850 down to the pike. That's impressive for d10! Storms go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll wait till it is within NAM's range to see what will really happen Yeah, the 84 hour should pretty much lock it down ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 NAM= Never Accurate Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the 18z GFS is a bit stronger with the parent low, but still has a decent front ender. Antecedent airmass was actually a bit colder at first on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Scott what do you think the chances are of some good cold air damming in the Connecticut River Valley ? it seems like it always takes longer to warm up then modeled in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the 18z GFS is a bit stronger with the parent low, but still has a decent front ender. Antecedent airmass was actually a bit colder at first on Saturday. Is that a secondary trying to form down in the MA at 108 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Scott what do you think the chances are of some good cold air damming in the Connecticut River Valley ? it seems like it always takes longer to warm up then modeled in my location. Chances are good there, but you'll still go above freezing as modeled. That HP to the northeast will help lock in NE winds, but eventually the warmth aloft and winds veering more east will overcome any cold...but it will take a while. Could be a lot of IP and some ZR there perhaps if the GFS is right, after 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Is that a secondary trying to form down in the MA at 108 hours? Yeah at the surface...the mid-levels are going to rip out of the southwest though...classic SWFE as depicted on the GFS. I do like the high location. If that holds there as we get closer, I'd expect guidance to continue to slowly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Is that a secondary trying to form down in the MA at 108 hours? Yeah, but it's real weak. I wouldn't plan on a big secondary popping to save the day right now. Probably a weak one or triple point type deal with a better chance of a secondary low in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Chances are good there, but you'll still go above freezing as modeled. That HP to the northeast will help lock in NE winds, but eventually the warmth aloft and winds veering more east will overcome any cold...but it will take a while. Could be a lot of IP and some ZR there perhaps if the GFS is right, after 1-3. Thanks.I almost always take the under on temperatures in my location in these set-ups. The icing situation after the Thanksgiving storm, I did not go above freezing until 11 a.m.when I was forecasted to go above by 6 or 7. Even during the Christmas Grinch storm the warm sector only got me to 49 degrees at night and I stayed at 43 for hours when Willimantic was 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks.I almost always take the under on temperatures in my location in this situation The icing situation after the Thanksgiving storm I did not go above freezing until 11 a.m.when I was forecasted to go above by 6 or 7. even in the Christmas Grinch storm the warm sector only got me to 49 degrees at night and I stayed at 43 for hours when Willimantic was 64 It also depends on the primary low. Something like the euro would be a quicker change to rain. It could go either way right now. But like Will said, sometimes the real arctic air sort of trends stronger or is more stubborn to relinquish its grip over us as you approach the event. We may see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFS goes a bit weenieish with the clipper for SNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFS goes a bit weenieish with the clipper for SNE as well. Yeah, Its coming around like the Euro has shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah but the EURO is further north with the clipper than the GFS, GFS would actually be the prime track for the surface low. We need the low to come off the NJ coastline and head towards the benchmark and since we are dealing with northern stream energy and no shortwave interference in the way, I think we can get this northern stream shortwave to really dig and amplify enough for a big storm at the benchmark on Wednesday and Thursday. 2-4" across the Midwest and Great Lakes could turn into a 4--8" storm for eastern MA coastline, very cold air mass in place ahead of and behind the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's light years away. I wouldn't worry too much as it could go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's light years away. I wouldn't worry too much as it could go poof.Yeah...poor James is going to be a wreck for the next week over a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah...poor James is going to be a wreck for the next week over a few inches. Yeah I am, lol however the GFS shows how this could be slightly more than a few inches for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm hoping for some snow on the front end with this first system. If I'm really lucky we'll end up with something otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm hoping for some snow on the front end with this first system. If I'm really lucky we'll end up with something otg.I think it looks great for front end in the interior. I mentioned the euros tendency to spin up cutters in the long range. Seems like the airmass is doing nothing but getting colder as we head forward. Frozen to start for almost everyone in the least I would be thinking. Not a mega front end thump but we aren't far from a solution that would be great for many.People were driving themselves crazy by tracking a system 10 days out. Funny how when you relax, focus on the pattern improving it has spawned a better looking event thus far for SNE. Just don't tell eduggs who said there is no such thing as a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm hoping for some snow on the front end with this first system. If I'm really lucky we'll end up with something otg. I'm right there with you. A few inches followed by a few hours of sleet and other frozen garbage, followed by a little rain, then bitter cold afterwards to solidify would be very welcomed at this point. And that's what i'm thinking for my area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm right there with you. A few inches followed by a few hours of sleet and other frozen garbage, followed by a little rain, then bitter cold afterwards to solidify would be very welcomed at this point. And that's what i'm thinking for my area at least. Yeah you are probably in a decent spot there in Dracut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 00z GFS looks similar to previous runs...it's been pretty consistent today. Front end thump for SNE and then possibly icing. Longer thump for CNE before icy mix...far northern areas mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Goalpost are getting narrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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