Tolland Death Band Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Positive trend on the 12z GFS for the clipper. Not total ground chuck like 00z. Looks like 6-8 hours of light snow for CT, verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Its on the GFS, I'm not wishcasting, I'm predicting that the models will move more northward more towards the NJ coastline to a benchmark track with a strong northern stream shortwave and no shredding like we have seen previously, a stronger surface low, a strong cyclogenesis period of intensification, this storm has a lot more going for it to move more northward with time than the clipper last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 4:20 PM, JC-CT said: Other than wishcasting, what is your reasoning? I have seen this happen many times in the past. Its not wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 4:30 PM, jamesnichols89 said: I have seen this happen many times in the past. Its not wishcastingWe've also seen them weaken significantly after getting sampled, or stay relatively the same on modeling. So why do you think this one will strengthen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's a ton of shortwaves in the flow with a decent western ridge on the GFS today. We will try and play the law of averages over the next 10-12 days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There is a lot of work to do for the rest of us though, James. Canadian looks like less confluence, but also weaker s/w compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 JC, the models are not weakening the shortwave as we get closer to sampling, which means they see a flow that will be beneficial to the strengthening shortwave vort max. We could very well see an 1000mb low near the benchmark, rather than a 1012mb low at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 4:34 PM, CoastalWx said: There is a lot of work to do for the rest of us though, James. Canadian looks like less confluence, but also weaker s/w compared to 00z. We can't improve everything Scott with one cycle, it will be various improvements in various runs. It will take 24-48 hours to correct to a better solution. With less confluence we have less of a chance to be compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper is further south on the GGEM. Nothing for Philly, NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 12z Canadian is too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEM is nothing for anyone in the region. Pretty far south Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 12Z GFS ensemble spread is still insanely big for only 3 1/2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEFS have a lot of spread on the clipper for only 72-84 hours out. About half give 2"+ and a few give warning snows. Edit: snow goose beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Lol at the Hudson runner. Skewing the mean a bit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Still, the largest cluster is garbage for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I only really counted 3 of 12 that were good for SNE. Skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Based on those you'd assume a complete whiff north of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro is north of 00z for sure with the s/w, but weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If this comes to fruition it will be cold, far out but it keeps showing a cold push south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Bit of -SN for SE MA from what looks like OE as low departs. It is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Man that shortwave is close on euro. Just a little more amped and we might have something but unfortunately we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah Scott, the EURO came in closer to the SNE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Will we are so close to getting something bigger for SNE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Running out of time, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Running out of time, James. Yeah if we had an extra 2-3 runs maybe i would be a little more optimistic. Still can't totally rule out yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we had an extra 2-3 runs maybe i would be a little more optimistic. Still can't totally rule out yet though. On 1/18/2015 at 6:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we had an extra 2-3 runs maybe i would be a little more optimistic. Still can't totally rule out yet though. Be nice to grab an inc or two. I'd feel a bit better if the EC ensemble looked the same or a bit better than the op. Stabilized the south trend for now, although not quite the potent s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we had an extra 2-3 runs maybe i would be a little more optimistic. Still can't totally rule out yet though.Its Ruled out. Maybe Jimmy gets an inch or 2 of OES. Those are always fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Its Ruled out. Maybe Jimmy gets an inch or 2 of OES. Those are always fun to track. Verbatim is actually gives light snow for E MA and RI. Can't rule out a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Its Ruled out. Maybe Jimmy gets an inch or 2 of OES. Those are always fun to track. I'm sure him and Phil love the pics of your kids sledding while they are raining too. It's got a chance of a light event around here and perhaps you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:34 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm sure him and Phil love the pics of your kids sledding while they are raining too. It's got a chance of a light event around here and perhaps you too. I don't believe that it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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