CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 11:47 AM, weathafella said: Wait! You said para and that's the old gfs! You would think as a met he would know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Maybe tihs Simmons has a rain fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 11:47 AM, weathafella said: Wait! You said para and that's the old gfs!I thought today was the day only the new one ran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Confused? Didn't see a para available at 6z on weatherbell. We are analyzing 6z right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 11:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I thought today was the day only the new one ran? 6z para is out .,,,the last run before it becomes operational. I saw it on sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 12:19 PM, weathafella said: 6z para is out .,,,the last run before it becomes operational. I saw it on sv. I'm really confused. Now I don't know what we're looking at. The one I saw i thought was rain to snow..maybe it was the wrong one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 12:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I'm really confused. Now I don't know what we're looking at. The one I saw i thought was rain to snow..maybe it was the wrong one? Neither the op GFS or parallel GFS shows rain to snow. It's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 12:55 PM, CT Rain said: Neither the op GFS or parallel GFS shows rain to snow. It's rain.[/quote Thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Regardless of what it shows..which i disagree is all rain..Even Ryan's station has rain flipping to snow in their forecast this morning I still think a further east solution is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 1:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Regardless of what it shows..which i disagree is all rain..Even Ryan's station has rain flipping to snow in their forecast this morning I still think a further east solution is more likely. I agree that it is possible. I was just relaying the information that the GFS was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Good luck hoping for much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah I'm considering even a coating from the anafront system pure gravy. It needs a lot of help to produce anything outside of the white mountains and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I think the EURO solution is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Verbatim, its a Rainer for SNE, not sure how that is debatable. Even s further east solution I would think is going to look like crap. Looks marginal until the storm passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Foothills and mountains up here look to cash verbatim on this next one depending on the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 NAM is stronger with inverted trough for tomorrow. Shows about 24 hour precip of .25-.50" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 2:22 PM, dryslot said: Foothills and mountains up here look to cash verbatim on this next one depending on the final outcome Unless one believes the 06z gfs, which is a major deluge except perhaps for the mountains (and which appeared out of nowhere compared to yesterday's runs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 2:33 PM, tamarack said: Unless one believes the 06z gfs, which is a major deluge except perhaps for the mountains (and which appeared out of nowhere compared to yesterday's runs.) That is the last run for the GFS so i tossed it..........lol, The 0z Euro was a better look with the low track further east, It would even be snow down here verbatim on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GEFS member P004 shows how it can get done for SNE. It also shows that it is not the most likely scenario according to current guidance. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The inverted surface trough is a little concerning for Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:25 PM, jamesnichols89 said: The inverted surface trough is a little concerning for Cape and Islands. no it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:24 PM, JC-CT said: 12z GEFS member P004 shows how it can get done for SNE. It also shows that it is not the most likely scenario according to current guidance. Oh well. 12z has not even run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:40 PM, dryslot said: 12z has not even run yetSorry 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just noticed the models are hitting on a trough feature for up this way friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:41 PM, dryslot said: Just noticed the models are hitting on a trough feature for up this way friday Same thing that clips eastern areas of SNE tomorrow it looks like. NAM/hiresNAM/RGEM/GGEM all bullish on some 1"+ amounts somewhere in Eastern MA(Basically BOS metro east on most). Looks like it basically moves due north from there and brings coastal NH/ME a coating to an inch or so on that guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:47 PM, SR Airglow said: Same thing that clips eastern areas of SNE tomorrow it looks like. NAM/hiresNAM/RGEM/GGEM all bullish on some 1"+ amounts somewhere in Eastern MA(Basically BOS metro east on most). Looks like it basically moves due north from there and brings coastal NH/ME a coating to an inch or so on that guidance. Mid Coast to DE Maine usually are better suited for these, 06z RGEM was pretty bullish for those areas, 12z GFS looks decent as well so far but these don't always end up where modeled until closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z RGEM seems to hit the Mid to DE coast along with the SE areas of MA on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Is the 12z GFS on NCEP the old para / new OP GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 4:06 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Is the 12z GFS on NCEP the old para / new OP GFS? Yes, it's what we were calling the Para which is now the op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 On 1/14/2015 at 3:32 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: no it's not. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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