Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 On 1/6/2015 at 8:31 PM, CoastalWx said: Yep and whaddya know....heights raised again through hr 300 out west. yeah that run is pretty much a 1-2 day thaw centered on MLK Day. heights continue to rise out in w/nw NA right to the end of the run after that relaxation period. still a hostile atlantic of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Right now this looks to me as if its mostly a MA or SE winter event. The Euro has stunk timing Highs coming out of Canada and also on their departure. The GFS and GEM are way more stubborn pulling the initial high out and also quicker bringing the next one down at 130 hours, the Euro is early on the 1st one's departure and extremely late bringing the next down. I think in the end anything is suppressed and fairly disorganized. I think that place like TN GA NC SC may be in trouble though. I don't even know my confidence on BWI/DCA seeing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 On 1/6/2015 at 8:40 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Right now this looks to me as if its mostly a MA or SE winter event. The Euro has stunk timing Highs coming out of Canada and also on their departure. The GFS and GEM are way more stubborn pulling the initial high out and also quicker bringing the next one down at 130 hours, the Euro is early on the 1st one's departure and extremely late bringing the next down. I think in the end anything is suppressed and fairly disorganized. I think that place like TN GA NC SC may be in trouble though. I don't even know my confidence on BWI/DCA seeing much. There are a few different s/w showing up on the GEFS next week with various timing. Should be interesting to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think next week has a shot here. I think the ridge out west amplifies enough to allow something nearby. That's been the trend. Not much of a relaxation on the EC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 On 1/6/2015 at 8:56 PM, CoastalWx said: I think next week has a shot here. I think the ridge out west amplifies enough to allow something nearby. That's been the trend. Not much of a relaxation on the EC too. Agree. Not sure how good wrf btv is with temps, but its verbatim below zero through BOS and a lot of SNE. -5 kissing Woburn thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Looks like it might snow over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Maybe one of those ten day fantasy maps will work out. We're due once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/6/2015 at 11:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like it might snow over the next 10 days [Verbatim on the ggem] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Some of the weatherbell Euro Ensemble member snow maps are even more weenieish than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 1:49 AM, CTValleySnowMan said: Some of the weatherbell Euro Ensemble member snow maps are even more weenieish than the GGEM. There were a couple monsters in the 12z gefs members too. Interesting if nothing else. A lot of ways to fail as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Models like OES signature next week on prolonged 850 to 1000mb northeasterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 2:03 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Models like OES signature next week on prolonged 850 to 1000mb northeasterly winds.[/quote The King of OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I try to be king of OES, but it's so fickle, it depends greatly on wind direction, next week looks a whole lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It always does a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I have no idea why but these types of model runs just make me laugh...like Tippy talks about the cosmic buttbang, going cold and dry for 10 days then getting the first synoptic precip event as rain before going back into the freezer. There's something about that pattern that's just laughable because of how frustrating it can be haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 00z EURO has a mega storm over NJ at hour 216, (9 days out). Rainstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The ensembles are a bit different. I wouldn't worry about a day 9 prog from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nah Scott, I'm not, but all three global models of importance show a storm in this period now, now syncing up and in unison, just disagree in placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 BOX says suppression early next week..I tend to think it's a light-moderate hit as models too much confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think next week is suppression, and OES is possible, as it seems like every week has been. Anyways, next weekend looks like a biggie though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 11:27 AM, jamesnichols89 said: I think next week is suppression, and OES is possible, as it seems like every week has been. Anyways, next weekend looks like a biggie though. We're not in a biggie pattern. Not this winter. Expect smaller events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 11:40 AM, Damage In Tolland said: We're not in a biggie pattern. Not this winter. Expect smaller events No, we have a +PNA next week, I expect biggie events over the smaller events, they will just be progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Big OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We return to -NAO, -AO and +PNA next week around the 16th and beyond based upon CPC teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah Scott, but again its a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 11:49 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Yeah Scott, but again its a week away. I don't really see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembels really muted the MLK warmup even more. We might not see much of any type of warmup...still could be a day or two pretty warm, but it could also be mundane like a high of 40 one or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembels really muted the MLK warmup even more. We might not see much of any type of warmup...still could be a day or two pretty warm, but it could also be mundane like a high of 40 one or two days. In addition I also see lots of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On 1/7/2015 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembels really muted the MLK warmup even more. We might not see much of any type of warmup...still could be a day or two pretty warm, but it could also be mundane like a high of 40 one or two days. The 0z GEFS were pretty torchy last night, but 06z already dampened the positive anomalies and shortened the duration as well. TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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