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Model discussion thread


ORH_wxman

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

None of those will come close to verifying lol Not north of Nyc anyway

57 at ORH :lol:

They're coming....may be higher as models are playing catchup with Sundays heat. I won't be surprised if you hit 59 and me 65 and ORH 56.

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a chance . I don't think any of those places even hit 50

Well hopefully you're right but in my mind if we're going to torch lets make a run at 70 and then go subzero with snow otg 5 days later. That would be cool.

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

Tan, PVD, BDR, and maybe BOS for a time will. I wouldn't rule out 50s for you. You are a tough call.

I guess I just don't see that . How many warm ups are thwarted Preceded by solid qpf ? I mean 60-65?? I don't see how that's possible . Unless he's thinking the warm humid air just roars in. But without sun and downsloping

those numbers seem crazy high. Sure it's a mild day but the front comes thru mid sfternoon

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess I just don't see that . How many warm ups are thwarted Preceded by solid qpf ? I mean 60-65?? I don't see how that's possible . Unless he's thinking the warm humid air just roars in. But without sun and downsloping

those numbers seem crazy high. Sure it's a mild day but the front comes thru mid sfternoon

 

59, 63...what's the difference. Some areas will see that. 

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you meaning with a warm south flow..or a DSD type warmth?

 

When those winds go SSW im spots, it will torch to near 60 at least. However, I think NW of TAN-PVD etc will be real stubborn until last second maybe. We all know about ORH which never get past 45 lol.

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Several 12z GFS ensemble members 96-108 are pretty darn juicy with the clipper...unfortunately most are north of the Op, some by a decent amount...definitely bad for me and maybe for some of the SRN people here...I think the pattern favors this not being that far north...more or less a good track for SNE but not NNE is what I would think, somewhere over NYC to perhaps as far as CNJ

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:55 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Several 12z GFS ensemble members 96-108 are pretty darn juicy with the clipper...unfortunately most are north of the Op, some by a decent amount...definitely bad for me and maybe for some of the SRN people here...I think the pattern favors this not being that far north...more or less a good track for SNE but not NNE is what I would think, somewhere over NYC to perhaps as far as CNJ

 

I would be surprised if we saw nothing here from the clipper, It would have to dive pretty far south and scoot east if that was the case, Most of the time if its a miss here its usually in the transfer to the secondary low that forms off shore and DE Maine is the beneficiary in most cases

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  On 1/2/2015 at 5:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

When those winds go SSW im spots, it will torch to near 60 at least. However, I think NW of TAN-PVD etc will be real stubborn until last second maybe. We all know about ORH which never get past 45 lol.

Euro still has 2m temps soaring into the 50s into S NH.
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Little blowup of precip over E MA on the Euro for the clipper...perhaps we could squeeze out advisory amounts in some areas. You're probably going to have great snow growth and ofc ourse very cold sfc temps. Could be 20 to 1 in that.

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  On 1/2/2015 at 6:08 PM, dryslot said:

I would be surprised if we saw nothing here from the clipper, It would have to dive pretty far south and scoot east if that was the case, Most of the time if its a miss here its usually in the transfer to the secondary low that forms off shore and DE Maine is the beneficiary in most cases

Euro is pretty solid for Maine. There's a bit of troughiness hanging back as that upper s/w associated with that arctic air mass approaches.
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  On 1/2/2015 at 6:30 PM, dendrite said:

Euro is pretty solid for Maine. There's a bit of troughiness hanging back as that upper s/w associated with that arctic air mass approaches.

 

Yeah, Euro is pretty bullish, We usually do pretty well with these in general, In soome instances, They will develop a little to late back this way but mid coast and DE can cash

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