H2Otown_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:51 AM, CoastalWx said: The GFS did better on Boxing Day, but the euro actually was the closest to 1/26 and even then it wasn't far enough north. It also did better in the 1/12 event too iirc. Perhaps 1/21 too? Yeah you are right. 1/12 was an E/E storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:54 AM, weathafella said: Let's hope it is struggling and not correct. I think it is struggling, this model is the third best out of the three global models and with the GEFS mean supporting the operational to a better degree now I think confidence is increasing with this threat for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:51 AM, weathafella said: 1 means 1-2 on the prog. 6 means 6-8. 8 means 8+. Eye candy for now but encouraging sign for midweek snow for most of us. Is it unusual to have such robust numbers so far out? I would think the long lead time would serve to mute the MEX progs somewhat. I'm just unfamiliar with them and do not know their biases, etc. Maybe you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:53 AM, CoastalWx said: The Canadian has insane cold coming south.925mb temps near -30C up here Thu AM. If we go calm look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:00 AM, NorEastermass128 said: Is it unusual to have such robust numbers so far out? I would think the long lead time would serve to mute the MEX progs somewhat. I'm just unfamiliar with them and do not know their biases, etc. Maybe you do? I don't think the lead time has anything to do with it. I have no idea how those numbers are derived but to me it's a fluff bomb signal potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GEFS as robust as the op with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 WE could easily see ratios near 15:1 on the Cape and 20:1 and 22:1 inland. Cape benefits from being the farthest east in SNE so we get into the higher moisture and higher QPF rankings while inland gets to snow in 20:1 ratios. .50" of QPF could put down 10" with a 20:1 ratio assuming storm explodes more than currently modeled, which is also a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I wouldn't put a lot of stock into extended MEX numbers. Let's not go crazy with this clipper right now. 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GEFS mean is still a little too far north, a benchmark track would be much appreciated. Anyways, all models so far in the 00z suite today have shown rapid deepening, with some rates near 7mb/6hr. I think if we can get the lead shortwave to slow down some more, some phasing can occur within the long wave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:04 AM, jamesnichols89 said: WE could easily see ratios near 15:1 on the Cape and 20:1 and 22:1 inland. Cape benefits from being the farthest east in SNE so we get into the higher moisture and higher QPF rankings while inland gets to snow in 20:1 ratios. .50" of QPF could put down 10" with a 20:1 ratio assuming storm explodes more than currently modeled, which is also a distinct possibility. I'll eat my hat if anyone gets 0.5 qpf from the clipper...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:07 AM, dendrite said: I wouldn't put a lot of stock into extended MEX numbers. Let's not go crazy with this clipper right now. 10"? Fair enough Dendrite, just explaining the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:08 AM, weathafella said: I'll eat my hat if anyone gets 0.5 qpf from the clipper...lol. GFS has shown potential for .50" of QPF in the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS turns CHH to rain for a time near 00z Jan 7th 2015. Gives us .378" of Snow and .200" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:53 AM, CoastalWx said: It did. Swing that a little further south and we could be in business. Not a bad look though. I would take it verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:07 AM, dendrite said: I wouldn't put a lot of stock into extended MEX numbers. Let's not go crazy with this clipper right now. 10"? Yeah, a lot would have to change for anyone to see double digits with that. I think the max potential for the clipper is probably half a foot of fluff that is like 2 or 3 inches the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:53 AM, SnowGoose69 said: This is one case the GFS may be the best model, a someone else just posted, it does real well with clippers and pure northern stream disturbances. Yeah I agree. It seemed to handle some events decently well last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm not saying 10" was likely, I'm just saying with .50" of QPF, its possible to get 10" of snow on 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Its more likely we will see 2-4" of snow from the clipper as moisture enhances the further east you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 EURO has an 1008mb low over the north central Great Lakes, should come in further north than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z EURO was an ugly run, mainly a Fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro hasnt been enthusiastic with the clipper. It still shows some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 6z GFS is much further southeast with the clipper, also shows rapid cyclogenesis as it hits the coastline and the benchmark. Also the shortwave is much sharper this run. 6z GFS para is further south with the clipper low over the Lakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 6:30 AM, jamesnichols89 said: 00z EURO was an ugly run, mainly a Fropa. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:56 AM, jamesnichols89 said: this model is the third best out of the three global models Say what? There are more than three global models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought the Euro looked the best with the clipper than it has in 3 or 4 runs...I guess James was looking for Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 1:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: I thought the Euro looked the best with the clipper than it has in 3 or 4 runs...I guess James was looking for Jan 2005. Lol I said that in the pattern thread too. The 6z GFS looked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Lol I said that in the pattern thread too. The 6z GFS looked pretty good too. Euro ensemble mean was pretty impressive actually. It must have a few members that turn it into a mauler. I obviously wouldn't get my hopes up for that, but it wouldn't be impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'd take 2-5" from the clipper and sprint. That is often how you get up off of that meterological mat, especially in the absence of a neg NAO.....begin to collect light to moderate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Solid looking s/w on the GFS for the clipper mid-week. Nice fresh Arctic airmass too. Could be a higher ratio type system. See what happens over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 1:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: I thought the Euro looked the best with the clipper than it has in 3 or 4 runs...I guess James was looking for Jan 2005. So did i, Not sure what Euro run he was looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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