CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: 00z GFS looks similar to previous runs...it's been pretty consistent today. Front end thump for SNE and then possibly icing. Longer thump for CNE before icy mix...far northern areas mostly snow. I thought it looked a bit colder than 18z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 That high is even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 That primary batch of energy well west of the first s/w actually tries to ignite precip again over water Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:04 AM, CoastalWx said: I thought it looked a bit colder than 18z too. Yeah it was...but it seemed minor enough at this range so i didn;t mention it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:04 AM, dryslot said: Goalpost are getting narrow It's nice to actually have a solid source of cold air with the high placement. Part of the changing of the guard with this pattern. Gonna' try and look at 0z GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:07 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it was...but it seemed minor enough at this range so i didn;t mention it, lol. Oh...lol..I just threw it out there after seeing the high. That H5 pattern is quite different in the Plains. It really digs after the first s/w that helps contribute to out storm, passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Oh...lol..I just threw it out there after seeing the high. That H5 pattern is quite different in the Plains. It really digs after the first s/w that helps contribute to out storm, passes by. Yeah the lagging energy came much further south...I wonder if we can trend that into more of a kicker scenario for the front runner...that would probably help us stay more snow in future runs if it did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:07 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's nice to actually have a solid source of cold air with the high placement. Part of the changing of the guard with this pattern. Gonna' try and look at 0z GFS right now. The patience is staring to pay for the ones that could see thru it, Now some will benefit from it, You are primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 13km GFS is more in line with the current GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:12 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the lagging energy came much further south...I wonder if we can trend that into more of a kicker scenario for the front runner...that would probably help us stay more snow in future runs if it did that. I was wondering as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:12 AM, CoastalWx said: The 13km GFS is more in line with the current GFS too. 13km GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:13 AM, CoastalWx said: I was wondering as well. If this was FB you could play the "Like" card............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nice consistency with the GFS. Top notch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:14 AM, dan123 said: 13km GFS? Also known as the GFS parallel because they have been running it in parallel with the current version. This new version will replace the current GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:19 AM, CoastalWx said: Also known as the GFS parallel because they have been running it in parallel with the current version. This new version will replace the current GFS. Ok thought so. So basically it has trended towards the older GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS goes Miller B on the clipper out in D7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:21 AM, dan123 said: Ok thought so. So basically it has trended towards the older GFS? Well for now, it's not as amped up so yeah a bit closer to the older version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:23 AM, ORH_wxman said: GFS goes Miller B on the clipper out in D7 range. Yeah, really juiced up. Another solution for Nichols, although not the best for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 7th 8th period has been picking up steam for a region wide event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:25 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, really juiced up. Another solution for Nichols, although not the best for SE MA. That could be a sneaky clipper/redeveloper. Way out nearly in clown range though right now. The antecedent airmass is very good though for that one...prob even better than the 1/4 threat...so there's some wiggle room there which is quite helpful in a block-less pattern over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why is the D7 event not good for SE Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:28 AM, FRWEATHA said: Why is the D7 event not good for SE Mass? It's not even worth getting worked up. The GFS tracked the low near the Cape with E-SE winds ahead of it. But it will change a million times. Don't sweat it. Thee airmass is really cold ahead of it so like Will said, there is wiggle room. My point was that it's in the envelope of solutions, and that is a huge envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:28 AM, FRWEATHA said: Why is the D7 event not good for SE Mass? Just verbatim on the GFS...it actually amped it up so much that it warmed up SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Eh, on the GFS for d7, looks pretty bad for SNE, looks good for I-95. Bad for NYC, Long Island as well. Still a Long ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I never get "worked up" over weather. . . Was just asking. I appreciate all that you guys do for us non-mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:33 AM, FRWEATHA said: I never get "worked up" over weather. . . Was just asking. I appreciate all that you guys do for us non-mets. Sorry, I thought you were concerned. The new GFS isn't as amped so you see there is a wide variety of solutions. But, gone are the days of zonal flow and marine puke. It's a new pattern and it's going to be an interesting ride for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thanx coastalwx. The analysis of you and orhwx, and even Tip are great for us non-mets. Honestly, wtf, why aren't some of u on-air instead of the bubble-heads, and incompetents that are supposed to serve the public? Anyway, Happy NY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thats actually not a bad look at this time for the clipper system. That tracks right over the cape essentially and doesnt warm many people. Slide that east a hair and its a snowstorm for many. I'd rather it show that than not have it at all. Still light years away over 150+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 GGEM still insisting on the big phased cutter. Though it still does give front end snow...but it wouldn't have much icing after it. But even with that solution, the high is really stubborn to relent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 On 12/31/2014 at 4:45 AM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM still insisting on the big phased cutter. Though it still does give front end snow...but it wouldn't have much icing after it. But even with that solution, the high is really stubborn to relent. It did come down 10mb though from 982 to 992 and is not as far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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