CAPE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Unless the ao/nao turn around, it's going be underwhelming in these parts. Prior to xmas, there was meaningful blocking showing up (and justifiable optimism from weenies and pros alike). That actual -ao we just had ended up being 15 minutes long (and useless) and now the progs for for the ao to rocket skywards and remain there for 2 weeks. Jan is currently at risk for a solid +ao. Until that turns around for real and not 10+ days away, any patten change late month isn't going to help much for our area. Further north doesn't have to worry as much. lol when is the last time we had any meaningful blocking during the winter months? Seems like a meteorological impossibility anymore. It really wasnt all that impressive on the models and it came and went depending on the model run. I was never anticipating any real cooperation on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 That's the spirit Edit: looks like the GFS/Para laugh at the idea of any snow Tuesday. At this point, punting January seems like a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ensemble trends have been bad the last few days. I'm going to wait until yesterday to cancel the first half of Jan though. How did the ensemble forecast for late December work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 One thing id say is I was looking thru old stuff and everyone was freaking out in early Feb last year because pattern was progged to flood with pac warmth. Then it snowed a lot. Obv it's a bad look but it does snow here every year and we are into climo goodness now or soon depending on location. I think that was when the GFS cancelled winter and people were dry humping the MJO. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I guess we are just paying for last winters unexpected surplus . Isn't that what happened after 09/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When do we start rooting for the futility record? Still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 How did the ensemble forecast for late December work out? Bad patterns have a much better track record at verifying and lasting longer than good ones since the end of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Bad patterns have a much better track record at verifying and lasting longer than good ones since the end of Nov. Ain't it so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 looking back at BWI snow records and recalling some of the lousier winters, I knew there was something familiar about this winter so far......80/81 80/81 ended up having 2 out of 3 winter months BN temp-wise, only 4.6" total snow, but was the quintessential warm/wet, cold/dry style winter let's hope that winter doesn't come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 looking back at BWI snow records and recalling some of the lousier winters, I knew there was something familiar about this winter so far......80/81 80/81 ended up having 2 out of 3 winter months BN temp-wise, only 4.6" total snow, but was the quintessential warm/wet, cold/dry style winter let's hope that winter doesn't come to fruition The only thing that said winter would suck ass this year was the cfs2. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The only thing that said winter would suck ass this year was the cfs2. Just sayin that's why I still mention it it did OK last winter, and is sadly doing OK this winter.....so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 that's why I still mention it it did OK last winter, and is sadly doing OK this winter.....so far It did more than ok last winter. It had wall to wall cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 looking back at BWI snow records and recalling some of the lousier winters, I knew there was something familiar about this winter so far......80/81 80/81 ended up having 2 out of 3 winter months BN temp-wise, only 4.6" total snow, but was the quintessential warm/wet, cold/dry style winter let's hope that winter doesn't come to fruition You may be right. There could be some pretty impressive negative departures next week between rainstorms as the models keep getting colder and colder for the midweek period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wouldn't leave out the possibility of light freezing drizzle Saturday Morning N & W of the cities (6am-10am timeframe). NAM/RGEM/GGEM show this, but it is only IF we do get precip earlier. Assuming GFS/Para and Euro are warmer. Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It has to be some sort of record for the number of snowless model runs consecutively so far. I mean every day nothing through 384. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It did more than ok last winter. It had wall to wall cold It changes like every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It changes like every day.there's a trick to knowing which run is right that only weenies have the ability to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 there's a trick to knowing which run is right that only weenies have the ability to know It's amazing. I wish I had the power that they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Their power is nothing compared to yours. You have the power to create or destroy hope...you breathe life into the weenie soul and have the power to melt it. This is true. I'm like General Zod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 "The son of JI will be my slave...forever." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm looking forward to the title change to un-fooked. Probably best to wait until after we're shoveling something other than sand to block the flood of weenie tears going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 "The son of JI will be my slave...forever." He would be useless to you in New England...snow would be his Kryptonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 He would be useless to you in New England...snow would be his Kryptonite I may have to put him in a glass pane and throw him into out space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 He would be useless to you in New England...snow would be his Kryptonite Why do you say this to him, when you know he will kill for it?* *Superman II reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Why do you say this to him, when you know he will kill for it?* *Superman II reference. I was hoping someone got it. Zod is kinda badazz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I may have to put him in a glass pane and throw him into out space. Winter in the mid-atlantic is far more punishment than the phantom zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If I was superman I would fly right to Greenland and punch the +nao right in the face until it died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If I was superman I would fly right to Greenland and punch the +nao right in the face until it died. I'd tilt the Earth on its axis so that we are the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Or I'd go super-light-speed around the Earth and go back to Jan 5, 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If I was superman I would fly right to Greenland and punch the +nao right in the face until it died. Hey +NAO, I'm talking to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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