Ji Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 we have virtually lost any chance for starting off frozen. So there's that. I think GGEM is last model to still be holding on to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We will see frozen Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We will see frozen Sat morning If by "we" you mean "you" then I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 LMAO... Wait until we get 35" in February though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We will see frozen Sat morningI love that movie! I'm going to see Cloudy with a chance of Cold Rain on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Im going to be plenty pissed when we get a stout -AO and -NAO in late-March through April... I thought I remember a pro met on here saying one time that a sharply -NAO/AO has the opposite effect in spring than it does in winter... so it would give us sunny and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Bass boat is coming out on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro ens run is a disaster d11-15. Mean 850 0c line retreats almost to the pa/ny border. That's a really bad sign when the mean looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro ens run is a disaster d11-15. Mean 850 0c line retreats almost to the pa/ny border. That's a really bad sign when the mean looks like that. [/media] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro ens run is a disaster d11-15. Mean 850 0c line retreats almost to the pa/ny border. That's a really bad sign when the mean looks like that. January thaw...wouldn't be a winter without one especially after coming off a month long December thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 January thaw...wouldn't be a winter without one especially after coming off a month long December thaw Ensemble trends have been bad the last few days. I'm going to wait until yesterday to cancel the first half of Jan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I should have known the first part of winter was going to suck. I recently did an experiment. I started with some ENSO and then added some PNA. I threw in some QBO along with some EPO. I then added a little WPO. Next, I stirred in some MJO. I decided to toss in some solar activity. Next came some NAO and of course a large quantity of AO. I added some PDO and a touch of western atlantic water temps. Finally, I topped everything off with some SSW and a heaping portion of Judah Cohen's SAI. Here's what came out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro ens run is a disaster d11-15. Mean 850 0c line retreats almost to the pa/ny border. That's a really bad sign when the mean looks like that. Can't look worse...which I guess is good news. The +EPO is a good sign, instead of rain, cold, warm, rain, it will be just warm/rain. Pre-emergent time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 At this point I am just gonna take the warmth and run with it.. literally... I ran the inner harbor today.. the first time this year I felt like I needed long sleeves.... running in 50 degrees in January is delightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Also... I started going back to meetings again so hopefully you guys wont get any more drunken early morning posts from me. Here's to new beginnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ensemble trends have been bad the last few days. I'm going to wait until yesterday to cancel the first half of Jan though. I've been preaching for awhile 1/15-1/20 was the window we'd likely start really turning it around, I see no changes to that yet, its definitely going to moderate somewhere after 1/8 or so for a week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 January thaw...wouldn't be a winter without one especially after coming off a month long December thawBest part of this pattern might be the real you returning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 I noticed dt and hm vanished like Cohen Ao forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I couldn't care less what any model shows 11-15 days out. 11 days ago what model was showing snow for LA county and southern NV? We were supposed to be in a relatively "good" pattern for snow here. That verified well. After the upcoming cutter, EPS looks cold, with 850 zero line to our south through 240. Even that is too far out to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I noticed dt and hm vanished like Cohen Ao forecast DT has been one of the few pretty much backing off, he isnt throwing it in completely but he's definitely said more or less there isn't much to get excited about for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I should have known the first part of winter was going to suck. I recently did an experiment. I started with some ENSO and then added some PNA. I threw in some QBO along with some EPO. I then added a little WPO. Next, I stirred in some MJO. I decided to toss in some solar activity. Next came some NAO and of course a large quantity of AO. I added some PDO and a touch of western atlantic water temps. Finally, I topped everything off with some SSW and a heaping portion of Judah Cohen's SAI. Here's what came out: 2789ff3b717798b359fb05f933776f9ce97bd9fc89741f9dcc059b4d1aa1da43.jpg Quote of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 One thing id say is I was looking thru old stuff and everyone was freaking out in early Feb last year because pattern was progged to flood with pac warmth. Then it snowed a lot. Obv it's a bad look but it does snow here every year and we are into climo goodness now or soon depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I've been preaching for awhile 1/15-1/20 was the window we'd likely start really turning it around, I see no changes to that yet, its definitely going to moderate somewhere after 1/8 or so for a week to 10 days. I'm going to start preaching that it's going to turn in March and we'll have a 1993 like superstorm. I see no changes to that yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 One thing id say is I was looking thru old stuff and everyone was freaking out in early Feb last year because pattern was progged to flood with pac warmth. Then it snowed a lot. Obv it's a bad look but it does snow here every year and we are into climo goodness now or soon depending on location. This is the "fooked" thread. There is no room for positivity here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I am optimistic because there is no reason to believe the models in the long range would be correctly capturing any pattern change that might occur. We were all giddy about the prospects for something good after Xmas and through the first few days of Jan about 10 days ago, as the guidance showed the AO going neutral and even slightly negative, and a nice PNA/EPO ridge to overcome an uncooperative Atlantic. What did we end up with? Still a +AO/NAO, but now a -PNA and a lovely SE ridge. SO... now you hear that the QBO and MJO are the culprits, even tho those indices have behaved as expected. Weather is complex and it does what it does and sometimes we analyze things too much. Like Ian said, let climo do its thing. I am sure it will snow some by March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I've been preaching for awhile 1/15-1/20 was the window we'd likely start really turning it around, I see no changes to that yet, its definitely going to moderate somewhere after 1/8 or so for a week to 10 days. Unless the ao/nao turn around, it's going be underwhelming in these parts. Prior to xmas, there was meaningful blocking showing up (and justifiable optimism from weenies and pros alike). That actual -ao we just had ended up being 15 minutes long (and useless) and now the progs for for the ao to rocket skywards and remain there for 2 weeks. Jan is currently at risk for a solid +ao. Until that turns around for real and not 10+ days away, any patten change late month isn't going to help much for our area. Further north doesn't have to worry as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is the "fooked" thread. There is no room for positivity here To be honest we are probably going to get skunked for a whole winter eventually so this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Subhemispheric equatorial vortexes will save us once they rejigger the LPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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