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Fooked!


Ji

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Probably the opposite this year where the blocking shows up in late March/April and we have many days of CAD...45 and drizzle...

 

You're probably right, I don't ;look much beyond 2 weeks and week 2 looks to be on the warm side....plus the days are getting warmer.  MY comment earlier was made somewhat tongue in cheek. 

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Was just about to comment on it. F this winter. 

 

Clipper skips us, and NYC north get a nice snowfall. 

 

But hey, it's 180 hours out. Plenty of time for this to trend worse for us. 

 

Edit: Para gives NW areas a shot at frozen at 102 (0z Sun)?

 

Anything frozen would be very short lived if it even happens this weekend. High to the N is too far east to do anything. At least the GFS pumps the 582dm ridge to the nc/va border late in the run as another bowling ball digs the CA coast. We might hit 60. 

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I'm so thankful the website gave me a couple of minutes to prepare myself for that.

 

If I'm looking at this right, you got TSSN on 11/26 and finished with .2 snow? I don't think I have ever seen that before and somehow it all makes so much sense during this season of fail. 

Yes, that's right. The best .2" ever lol. Big fatties with thunder. If I remember correctly a house was actually struck by lightning in N. HarCo that day. The northern part of the county was also the jackpot with 3" running from Jarrettsville into NW Cecil County.

 

Different world up there.

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Who here will be surprised if the weekend system ends up as a sheared out mess?

I sure would.  The AO and -PNA say it ought to go towards the lakes and that's what the euro and GEFS ensemble means are showing.   YOu still could see a bit of freezing rain but the low isn't likely to go to our south like the early runs.  The one sheared out solution is today's ukmet which brings a northern stream low out really fast and then brings a wave to our south.  That's your hope but probably not the most likely solution.

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I sure would. The AO and -PNA say it ought to go towards the lakes and that's what the euro and GEFS ensemble means are showing. YOu still could see a bit of freezing rain but the low isn't likely to go to our south like the early runs. The one sheared out solution is today's ukmet which brings a northern stream low out really fast and then brings a wave to our south. That's your hope but probably not the most likely solution.

I was actually thinking about the numerous systems that have simply fizzled as we get closer. Even Santabomb didn't come close to its early modeling.

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Looks like a beautiful two weeks of 1040-1050 highs whipping across the CONUS without any staying power followed by lake cutters as the High's move off into the Atlantic.  Perhaps one or two of these lake cutters can work become deck shufflers, and help us transition into a more favorable pattern.

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We lucked our way to pay dirt last year without a real -NAO and that just ain't likely to happen two years in a row, especially if we're playing with a back and forth AO.

 

The AO hasn't really been back n forth.  It's pretty much been positive all winter with some neutral to slightly below blips.  If it was back n forth and heading for -2 to -3 range, I'd probably gain interest in the models.  Everybody likes to talk about how we lucked into last year, but since we are fooked this year, I guess it's all that's left to talk about.

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For met winter so far, yeah, it has been mostly positive, but going back a bit further you see what looks like three +/- transitions during November. To your point, moving forward we look to stay positive, but there is still a fair amount of talk (Cohen) about a shift to a negative regime toward the end of January. We'll see.

Im going to be plenty pissed when we get a stout -AO and -NAO in late-March through April...

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