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Fooked!


Ji

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It's the pattern not the models. Stop reading jb he has lost his mind trying to spin things so his bust isn't as bad. There is no way we are getting any significant snow in this pattern. I check in once a day for a few minutes just to see if any signs of either a +Pna or -nao are showing up. Until one of those indices changes I don't care what the epo does storms will cut.

That sort of what I implied yesterday with my comment about the NAO and PNA though so early in the game it would have been foolish to completely toss out the Euro and para.

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I think mainly it's time for everyone to dial back down on the long range for forecast ideas. Most day 7+ storms aren't as shown on modeling.

Totally agree. If the ns/ss phase happens with this one, it's definitely going west. But there is some ll cold in place so wintry possibilities can't be ruled out in that scenario. Time of day would play a role as well.

If the phase is missed and some sort of sheared ss system ejects in front of the ns vort it could do "something". Definitive answers are impossible attm. It's a terrible big snow pattern so anything wintry would be a win.

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I think we should keep this thread rolling for all future threats until they are inside of 3-4 days. Just change the title. It will be a nice and tidy package of good reading that strongly supports not getting a treble hook sunk in both lips with every long lead threat this year. If we ever get some of the fabled blocking we were promised, long lead stuff can be taken just a little bit more seriously. 

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I think we should keep this thread rolling for all future threats until they are inside of 3-4 days. Just change the title. It will be a nice and tidy package of good reading that strongly supports not getting a treble hook sunk in both lips with every long lead threat this year. If we ever get some of the fabled blocking we were promised, long lead stuff can be taken just a little bit more seriously. 

done

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