soadforecaster Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 one thing i do like to see on the 18z gfs is the fact you have a bombing near the 50/50 location which is keeping that high pressure closer to us. and seems like the gfs makes it a almost 1040 high over maine, things are starting to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Storm is more wound up this run, a very brief period of IP/ZR North and West that quickly turns over to rain. Cold Rain to Mild Rain for everyone. Decent sized Winter Storm for PA to Maine but it is rain for a decent part of SNE, almost everyone goes to rain except NNE. Para looking more like GFS, 1011mb on IN/KY border at 144hrs, straight ENE from there. NOT a Cutter at all but closer to being one. Verbatim Para looks like it's mainly rain with some snow/mix to start up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Storm is more wound up this run, a very brief period of IP/ZR North and West that quickly turns over to rain. Cold Rain to Mild Rain for everyone. Decent sized Winter Storm for PA to Maine but it is rain for a decent part of SNE, almost everyone goes to rain except NNE. Para looking more like GFS Yep, the positive NAO/AO and negative PNA seem to be winning on this run. Have to wait to see what the Euro does but my inclination has been for the northern track but not with enough enthusiasm to gainsay the Euro though even it was too warm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I may just be slow, but I'm having a hard time seeing what all the fuss is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I may just be slow, but I'm having a hard time seeing what all the fuss is about. desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Jan 6 & 7th is warmer with a chance of rain showers here in the PNW so maybe west coast ridge will get you guys a winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro ens run the low up from LA-TN-KY-WV then jump it overhead and just east of cape cod. Not terrible. Kitchen sink of precip type of look with the usual suspects like wxzrluvr getting more and folks like bob torcher getting less. By the 12z run on Wednesday, the track will be LA, Western SC, Western NC, then over Ji's abode and then Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I remember when we used to have beastly highs that weren't bossed around by chump lows. Seems like now even 1040+ highs can be punched in the mouth and sent running northeast by the wimpiest of 1015mb lows with associated scattered drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's January it's gotta snow at some point. Apparently it doesn't. Starting to think it's really not going to snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I remember when we used to have beastly highs that weren't bossed around by chump lows. Seems like now even 1040+ highs can be punched in the mouth and sent running northeast by the wimpiest of 1015mb lows with associated scattered drizzle. Yea, that ended in 2010-11. Now all we get is sissy highs running for their +nao momma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Apparently it doesn't. Starting to think it's really not going to snow at all. We get lots of digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do we get a lot of digital snow? Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias? Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow? Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere? Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections? Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area? Other? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do we get a lot of digital snow? Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias? Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow? Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere? Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections? Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area? Other? Thoughts? It's because each model runs numerous times per day, spitting out numerous solutions per day, some of which may show digital snow, just due to the wide variety of solutions we see prior to any individual weather event. In an average pattern, you can typically find at least 1 or 2 model runs per day showing digital snow of some shape or form over a 10 day forecast period. That's why models are only tools to be used by folks who understand their limitations, and while it's fun to look at modeled snow, the ensembles are typically a better tool than the operational model runs at medium and long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Shut it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just saw the 0z Para and regular. We're done. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Getting a bad feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Turn out the lights; the party's over....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why do we get a lot of digital snow? Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias? Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow? Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere? Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections? Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area? Other? Thoughts? DC area is tough-always on rain/snow line it seems. Models are missing it on a bigger scale this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wish you would be more specific for those have not seen the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 DC area is tough-always on rain/snow line it seems. Models are missing it on a bigger scale this season. Models haven't missed anything. They've screwed us in the end...and pretty much verified each time! Lets hope that's a trend that changes soon. I can't take it anymore. Just frustrated this evening I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Oh no! We suck again! (In Cajun accent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Oh no! We suck again! (In Cajun accent) "We" meaning the eastern half of the US. If misery loves company it's SRO this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 "We" meaning the eastern half of the US. If misery loves company it's SRO this year. The way to get something measurable may be to look for a clipper next week when the cold gets established. Other than the obvious problems with clippers usually a narrow stripe is the outcome so someone ends up getting screwed. As far as the bigger systems right now we can't even get the cold to hold long enough to allow for some front end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 you know its really bad when you click on hr 384 just for laughs and the same pattern shows up. That takes us to 15 Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 When does the SSW save us and turn this thing into a Miller A HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 When does the SSW save us and turn this thing into a Miller A HECS? once it is to our north so SNE gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wish you would be more specific for those have not seen the models. The european model caved to a track towards the great lakes putting us on the warm side of the low. Pretty much what you'd expect with any stronger system with a positive NAO and negative PNA even with a negative epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 When does the SSW save us and turn this thing into a Miller A HECS? April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 very frustrating. the models always turn for the worse for us..not the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 very frustrating. the models always turn for the worse for us..not the better.It's the pattern not the models. Stop reading jb he has lost his mind trying to spin things so his bust isn't as bad. There is no way we are getting any significant snow in this pattern. I check in once a day for a few minutes just to see if any signs of either a +Pna or -nao are showing up. Until one of those indices changes I don't care what the epo does storms will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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