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Fooked!


Ji

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Storm is more wound up this run, a very brief period of IP/ZR North and West that quickly turns over to rain. Cold Rain to Mild Rain for everyone. Decent sized Winter Storm for PA to Maine but it is rain for a decent part of SNE, almost everyone goes to rain except NNE. Para looking more like GFS, 1011mb on IN/KY border at 144hrs, straight ENE from there. NOT a Cutter at all but closer to being one. Verbatim Para looks like it's mainly rain with some snow/mix to start up north

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Storm is more wound up this run, a very brief period of IP/ZR North and West that quickly turns over to rain. Cold Rain to Mild Rain for everyone. Decent sized Winter Storm for PA to Maine but it is rain for a decent part of SNE, almost everyone goes to rain except NNE. Para looking more like GFS

Yep, the positive NAO/AO and negative PNA seem to be winning on this run.  Have to wait to see what the Euro does but my inclination has been for the northern track but not with enough enthusiasm to gainsay the Euro though even it was too warm for us. 

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Euro ens run the low up from LA-TN-KY-WV then jump it overhead and just east of cape cod. Not terrible. Kitchen sink of precip type of look with the usual suspects like wxzrluvr getting more and folks like bob torcher getting less.

By the 12z run on Wednesday, the track will be LA, Western SC, Western NC, then over Ji's abode and then Philly.

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I remember when we used to have beastly highs that weren't bossed around by chump lows. Seems like now even 1040+ highs can be punched in the mouth and sent running northeast by the wimpiest of 1015mb lows with associated scattered drizzle.

Yea, that ended in 2010-11. Now all we get is sissy highs running for their +nao momma

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Why do we get a lot of digital snow?

 

Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias?

 

Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow?

 

Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere?

 

Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections?

 

Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority

 

Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area?

 

Other?

 

Thoughts? 

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Why do we get a lot of digital snow?

 

Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias?

 

Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow?

 

Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere?

 

Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections?

 

Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority

 

Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area?

 

Other?

 

Thoughts? 

It's because each model runs numerous times per day, spitting out numerous solutions per day, some of which may show digital snow, just due to the wide variety of solutions we see prior to any individual weather event.  In an average pattern, you can typically find at least 1 or 2 model runs per day showing digital snow of some shape or form over a 10 day forecast period.   That's why models are only tools to be used by folks who understand their limitations, and while it's fun to look at modeled snow, the ensembles are typically a better tool than the operational model runs at medium and long leads.

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Why do we get a lot of digital snow?

 

Is it because of a mid-range cold-bias in the models we look at? For example, do 7-day forecasts of the NAO have a low-bias?

 

Is it because we only remember the models and simulations that show snow?

 

Is it because of a precipitation bias in the models affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere?

 

Is it because we are in a bad MJO phase, and the models don't capture the teleconnections?

 

Is it because snow algorithms are designed to generate conversation and may not have accuracy as their first priority

 

Is it because DCA measurements are not representative of the area?

 

Other?

 

Thoughts? 

DC area is tough-always on rain/snow line it seems.

Models are missing it on a bigger scale this season.

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DC area is tough-always on rain/snow line it seems.

Models are missing it on a bigger scale this season.

Models haven't missed anything. They've screwed us in the end...and pretty much verified each time! Lets hope that's a trend that changes soon. I can't take it anymore. Just frustrated this evening I guess.
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"We" meaning the eastern half of the US. If misery loves company it's SRO this year.

The way to get something measurable may be to look for a clipper next week when the cold gets established. Other than the obvious problems with clippers usually a narrow stripe is the outcome so someone ends up getting screwed. As far as the bigger systems right now we can't even get the cold to hold long enough to allow for some front end stuff.

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very frustrating. the models always turn for the worse for us..not the better.

It's the pattern not the models. Stop reading jb he has lost his mind trying to spin things so his bust isn't as bad. There is no way we are getting any significant snow in this pattern. I check in once a day for a few minutes just to see if any signs of either a +Pna or -nao are showing up. Until one of those indices changes I don't care what the epo does storms will cut.
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