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Fooked!


Ji

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Mid-Atlantic special on the way next weekend! Get your milk, bread, and toilet paper while supplies last. Don't be fooled....we have the EPO working with us this time and a favorable position for the PV. If anything, suppression worries my but I think y'all do fine even up to Philly.

Glad you're so confident.  The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. 

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Glad you're so confident.  The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. 

If you believe the GFS', he would be right..but I mean, its the models in this pattern so....

 

Wouldn't it be the ultimate FU if we had a cold, but suppresive dome of high pressure near.

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If you believe the GFS', he would be right..but I mean, its the models in this pattern so....

Wouldn't it be the ultimate FU if we had a cold, but suppresive dome of high pressure near.

Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now.

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Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now.

Well if you believe the 6z GFS, I would think you want amped and organized with the 1044 mother High from hell.  But that would require actually believing the 6z GFS'....

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Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now.

The new GFS has the low go9ing to the great lakes but still has luvr and the far, far western guys with an ice storm.  that's more of a possibility.  I don't see this system going way south of us with a strongly positive AO and negative PNA even with the neg epo.  Maybe it can go right over us but that still equates to mostly rain or ice to rain. 

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The new GFS has the low go9ing to the great lakes but still has luvr and the far, far western guys with an ice storm.  that's more of a possibility.  I don't see this system going way south of us with a strongly positive AO and negative PNA even with the neg epo.  Maybe it can go right over us but that still equates to mostly rain or ice to rain. 

Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one.  D'oh

 

I'm confusing myself.  looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS

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Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one.  D'oh

 

I'm confusing myself.  looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS

yes.  was looking at Para..it's later on 12z and not same evolution at old GFS unless I am reading it wrong...which one are we watching again?

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Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one.  D'oh

 

I'm confusing myself.  looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS

The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast.  That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm.  I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm.  I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat.  

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The operation GFS... has the energy coming out of the south west and getting tangled up in the northern stream and lifting it into Midwest eventually into the lakes.

The para gfs keeps the streams separate and the southern stream more cut off from the northern stream, results in more of a bowling ball actions to the southern short wave thus the more southern solution.       

Really starts to diverge by about 96 hours into the run..

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The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast.  That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm.  I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm.  I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat.  

You've got the 12z para already out that far?

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The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast.  That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm.  I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm.  I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat.  

Thanks Wes.  I was confused with because the runs look so different.  I'm out to 156 on Para

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You've got the 12z para already out that far?

Out to 186hrs.   It still has us right on the edge with the 32 degree line and 850 zero line pretty much right over us which probably would not keep us snow but it has a huge surface high to the north so who knows.  I think the differences in the runs illustrate how chaotic the pattern is. 

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Out to 186hrs.   It still has us right on the edge with the 32 degree line and 850 zero line pretty much right over us which probably would not keep us snow but it has a huge surface high to the north so who knows.  I think the differences in the runs illustrate how chaotic the pattern is. 

At this stage, that doesn't suck.  I might be interested in this one.

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