usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Mid-Atlantic special on the way next weekend! Get your milk, bread, and toilet paper while supplies last. Don't be fooled....we have the EPO working with us this time and a favorable position for the PV. If anything, suppression worries my but I think y'all do fine even up to Philly. Glad you're so confident. The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Glad you're so confident. The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. If the trend for things to shear and string as leads shorten continues, I could envision a fairly long duration light qpf mess of the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Glad you're so confident. The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. Wes, r u suggesting this cuts rather than suppresses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Glad you're so confident. The strongly positive AO and NAO and negative PNA may argue with the suppression idea a tad. If you believe the GFS', he would be right..but I mean, its the models in this pattern so.... Wouldn't it be the ultimate FU if we had a cold, but suppresive dome of high pressure near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I've liked this sys best all along but pretty confident it'll suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If you believe the GFS', he would be right..but I mean, its the models in this pattern so.... Wouldn't it be the ultimate FU if we had a cold, but suppresive dome of high pressure near. Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now. Well if you believe the 6z GFS, I would think you want amped and organized with the 1044 mother High from hell. But that would require actually believing the 6z GFS'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I've liked this sys best all along but pretty confident it'll suck So far it's been pretty well-modeled. The date hasn't really changed, and the models keep throwing out snowy solutions. It'll probably just be our fail of the week though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 PV sitting just North of the Canadian border should keep it from cutting no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just root for nothing amped and organized. We can fall on the right side of the boundary. Setup doesn't scream or even yell softly for suppression. Unfortunately we are at the mercy of many wide swings until much closer. Casual observers of trends is all we got now. The new GFS has the low go9ing to the great lakes but still has luvr and the far, far western guys with an ice storm. that's more of a possibility. I don't see this system going way south of us with a strongly positive AO and negative PNA even with the neg epo. Maybe it can go right over us but that still equates to mostly rain or ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The new GFS has the low go9ing to the great lakes but still has luvr and the far, far western guys with an ice storm. that's more of a possibility. I don't see this system going way south of us with a strongly positive AO and negative PNA even with the neg epo. Maybe it can go right over us but that still equates to mostly rain or ice to rain. Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one. D'oh I'm confusing myself. looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one. D'oh I'm confusing myself. looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS yes. was looking at Para..it's later on 12z and not same evolution at old GFS unless I am reading it wrong...which one are we watching again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Crap, I was looking the storm AFTER that one. D'oh I'm confusing myself. looks like the Para has it later than the regular GFS The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast. That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm. I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm. I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The operation GFS... has the energy coming out of the south west and getting tangled up in the northern stream and lifting it into Midwest eventually into the lakes.The para gfs keeps the streams separate and the southern stream more cut off from the northern stream, results in more of a bowling ball actions to the southern short wave thus the more southern solution. Really starts to diverge by about 96 hours into the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 yes. was looking at Para..it's later on 12z and not same evolution at old GFS unless I am reading it wrong...which one are we watching again? I'm going to watch the Para since it was more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast. That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm. I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm. I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat. You've got the 12z para already out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The parallel actually has a decent storm as it takes it to almost WV and reforms it off the coast. That would give us a chance at some snow and ice and the western and northern guys a true winter storm. I'll be doing an outlook Wed and will discuss the storm. I looked at the euro ensemble stamps and they were all over the place. Soem took the low north into the lakes area and some looked like the parallel and last night's Euro so maybe I was premature in dissing the threat. Thanks Wes. I was confused with because the runs look so different. I'm out to 156 on Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 You've got the 12z para already out that far? I think he's talking about the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para is a Miller B - transfers from E TN to off OBX. We need that 1044 H further south to help with the temps, I'd imagine. I'm just looking at the 500 maps so I haven't seen the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para is a Miller B - transfers from E TN to off OBX. We need that 1044 H further south to help with the temps, I'd imagine. I'm just looking at the 500 maps so I haven't seen the surface. that doesn't sound terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 You've got the 12z para already out that far? Out to 186hrs. It still has us right on the edge with the 32 degree line and 850 zero line pretty much right over us which probably would not keep us snow but it has a huge surface high to the north so who knows. I think the differences in the runs illustrate how chaotic the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Out to 186hrs. It still has us right on the edge with the 32 degree line and 850 zero line pretty much right over us which probably would not keep us snow but it has a huge surface high to the north so who knows. I think the differences in the runs illustrate how chaotic the pattern is. At this stage, that doesn't suck. I might be interested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 the snowfall map is out to 174hr. not terrible.. I wish I lived in Winchester but still not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DC cut-off is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 At this stage, that doesn't suck. I might be interested in this one. lol...It's like 8 days away...there is no storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DC cut-off is lol I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The models have no skill a week away....who cares what they show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DC cut-off is lol lol. ~1 inch for my location and about 7 inches in Linthicum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 lol...It's like 8 days away...there is no storm.... Thanks Matt for telling me it's 8 days away. Without your prescience and my lack of counting skills, I would have never known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The models have no skill a week away....who cares what they show... Huh? I already made plans around this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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