BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 NAM and CMC vs GFS and Euro. Hmmmm. I'll take the NAM. This kid has some set of onions and I'm gonna roll the dice on him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 NO CMC really barely gets 0.01" up to us. It's a compromise solution between the more skillful Euro/GFS and NAm solutions. Too bad the NAM and GGEM are less skillful than the other two models. I'll be interested in today's ukmet as it had us in precip last night and it's a pretty good model at least at 500mb. This is the good stuff, knowledge, experience and integrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I am guessing the Euro looked terrible for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Be curious if 18z NAM holds firm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Be curious if 18z NAM holds firm 15z SREF not as wet. Still pretty decent tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 15z SREF not as wet. Still pretty decent tho. I think it will cave...way too far apart from the more reliable models. It was fun to track at least something for a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 15z SREF not as wet. Still pretty decent tho. Only about half of the members have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Only about half of the members have snow. Its not happening. Just continuing this fun little thread. Desperate times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The NAM appears to have caved, just light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Another threat bites the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Here's what I wrote earlier for CWG today on the snow chances. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/28/light-snow-on-tuesday-is-a-long-shot-but-worth-monitoring/ I thought about going 70/20/10 or even 75/20/5 on the probabilities of the three scenarios and now wish I had changed them now that I've seen the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 PPPFFFFTTT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Another threat bites the dust. Is anyone shocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Is anyone shocked? It obviously was a very low probability for an inch or two at best payoff. Was mostly for fun, something to track in very lean times. On to Jan 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 GFS gives out 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Which snow weenie started this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The NAM appears to have caved, just light snow showers.Light snow showers? That's a start. I'm in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Add Ian to the growing list of posters banned from starting another snow thread this winter. #getontheboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Add Ian to the growing list of posters banned from starting another snow thread this winter. #getontheboard I should have waited until the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I should have waited until the next one. Jan 4th is where its at. Just change the title of this thread to that and claim credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Another swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I still have faith in the "lol" storm. Let's see who's lol'ing when cars are topped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The NAM sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 The NAM sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The NAM sucks It corrected. We all knew it was on crack. But even modeled snow has become so rare, it is to be celebrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It corrected. We all knew it was on crack. But even modeled snow has become so rare, it is to be celebrated. Maybe the models are finally being improved enough to understand our climo, instead of giving us a fantasy KU every other run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Another bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Month isn't even over and we got a long range middle finger from the euro and short lead finger from the NA models. Guess we can't trust any event until six hours after it starts. Sounds about right. Seems like some clear early season trends include...over amplified medium to long range op euro solutions...over amped SRef and nam. GFS has done it once or twice but overall I think it and the cmc are fairing decent this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Speaking of, do we have enough data to feel confident about the para moving forward? Some of the mets in the NE forum said the numbers weren't great vs the current gfs and that there may be a warm bias at the surface. I don't think there has been a whole lot to compare it to yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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