olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 is there any need for that as we all know it and this is just "Saturday night at the DeNials" But we have model support from the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Not as good up my way. Difference between 2 inches and flurries on the 70HR NAM is pretty meaningless, though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kmtn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Are we pulling out the reverse psychology tricks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 not bad BWI http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kdca.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kiad.txt decent UVVs at hr 66 for all 3 airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm usually the most optimistic one in this forum. Should be telling that I'm pooing all over this. But yall go ahead. #desperation I have snow in my forecast. Mets at Mount must Holly believe. A little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Are we pulling out the reverse psychology tricks? we're pulling out whatever works, and what won't work but have to try something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm usually the most optimistic one in this forum. Should be telling that I'm pooing all over this. But yall go ahead. #desperationNAM might just first to catch onto favorable sun angle since it's hi res. Pretty sure the para shows storms then loses them for a bit then regains them too. Tiny snowmen are in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Regardless that it's the NAM it's nice to see things perk up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'll bet $100 against the NAM. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'll bet $100 against the NAM. Any takers? It's probably wrong but it only needs to be a little right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The last couple of nams have had a better 500 vort coming at us than the GFS or euro. It will be interesting to see whether they get a little jazzier this run or stay rather weak and pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 When has the NAM ever let us down?! I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The classiest bunch of Weather Degenerates .....one may ever meet the learning curve continues Respect dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'll bet $100 against the NAM. Any takers? In Monopoly money sure i just hope one of these times the NAM is actually right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The last couple of nams have had a better 500 vort coming at us than the GFS or euro. It will be interesting to see whether they get a little jazzier this run or stay rather weak and pedestrian. There is zero chance the NAM is right. Zero. I'd bet my life on it. We fall into this trap every year. I don't care who gets mad. We gotta stop flogging ourselves. The NAM is a sadist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's probably wrong but it only needs to be a little right. I'd be happy with the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The CRAS nearly takes it to Buffalo. The fact it is this far North while not super-amped should be a red flag. The CRAS is always like 150 miles too far west...the GFS may be too flat but the NAM is most definitely too north and amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 There is zero chance the NAM is right. Zero. I'd bet my life on it. We fall into this trap every year. I don't care who gets mad. We gotta stop flogging ourselves. The NAM is a sadist. It's not really just the NAM though. Most of the models have shown something a run or two in the past 24 hours or so.. and some longer of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 There is zero chance the NAM is right. Zero. I'd bet my life on it. We fall into this trap every year. I don't care who gets mad. We gotta stop flogging ourselves. The NAM is a sadist. I certainly wouldn't buy into it but the GFS would also give us a little and the parallel was close to giving us a little so it's worth following but not staying up until the GFS come in and surely not worth staying up or getting up for the Euro. Still, I'll hope for a quote tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's not really just the NAM though. Most of the models have shown something a run or two in the past 24 hours or so.. and some longer of course. The GFS' have show like a car topper tho. I can get with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'd be happy with the 18Z GFS. yeah it wasn't a bad look from here. i know dec snow 'doesn't matter' but getting on board with even a meager event might be uplifting at least. i could go for some flakes flying and a dusting. even daytime snow should have a chance in this setup if it's not just spitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 NAM aside (remember to cut qpf lol) this always seemed like a "classic" jump ball for us. Given how awful this month has been for virtually everyone in the east, I can see why many think we fail with this. Even if we fail, it won't be anywhere near the all timer from a week ago. Oh, last week was nothing. You should have been around for more of our fails that happened as the storms unfolded (12/26/2010, March 2013, etc), instead of a week before the storm. I'm hoping for a NAM coup even if I won't be home for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 There is zero chance the NAM is right. Zero. I'd bet my life on it. We fall into this trap every year. I don't care who gets mad. We gotta stop flogging ourselves. The NAM is a sadist. The NAM had one event last winter where it did this and ended up correct with everything moving north and west inside 3 days, but its probably only good for one of those every 3-5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 The GFS' have show like a car topper tho. I can get with that. Last night's GFS looked kinda like the NAM.. the para had a 'decent' event a few runs. We need to get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 you guys are cute You obviously haven't looked at any pictures of us. Better get back on topic. The latest Sref does not like the NAM much. It's heaviest member only predicts 1.5" so it's more in the GFS camp or even Euro camp than with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 You obviously haven't looked at any pictures of us. Better get back on topic. The latest Sref does not like the NAM much. It's heaviest member only predicts 1.5" so it's more in the GFS camp or even Euro camp than with the nam. yeah Wes, but that's because it's too amped and has us too warm it bring the .5" qpf line way north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think the key is the 250 mb chart. It isn't every day that we get a sustained 150 it's. jet overhead. This creates a lifting mechanism. So with very little low pressure center at the surface, we can get enough lifting from the jet to trigger light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Last night's GFS looked kinda like the NAM.. the para had a 'decent' event a few runs. We need to get on the board. Last night's GFS would be a good place for this to end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 rgem at the end of its run but it's "sorta" on board for something post 48 hrs. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's not officially a storm until those indecipherable maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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