aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 2:46 PM, Ian said: all hail nam I like ham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 2:51 PM, leesburg 04 said: I like ham That only works if you stop the spoonerism at that point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 1:28 PM, high risk said: yes, still having a hard time jumping on board, as the NAM is really the only model with the stronger 500 mb solution that is required to make this happen. I would normally discount the NAM being on its own island, but the 9z SREF is still quite wet for our area, which makes me hesitant to totally write off the idea. I'm in your camp. I have a hard time jumping on the NAM but also am hesitant to throw it out. At this time range, there is no need to. Also, last night's UKMET also had snow over us though not nearly as heavy as the NAM, sort of a compromise between the NAM and the GFS. I'd certainly lean towards the lean snow solutions if someone put a gun to my head and said choose but for a public forecast I'd jsut say a chance of light snow for Tuesday. Not need to go into details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 RGEM at 12Z....again not a good model at 48 hours but its badness at 48 pales in comparison to the NAM's badness beyond 48-54 so its interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 12:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: just figured you were really hoping the other way Of course I'm hoping. I want the NAM to be right. I want it to snow just like all of us. My #haters club isn't because I'm not hoping...it's because we're basing this on the worst model we have and no other model supports it. I'm not super optimistic on the event,that's all. When the GFS looks like the NAM, I'll hop on board. Meanwhile, when the NAM crushes your hopes and dreams, I'll be here to hold all of you in my ample bosom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM at 12Z....again not a good model at 48 hours but its badness at 48 pales in comparison to the NAM's badness beyond 48-54 so its interesting.... What does it's 500 look like? That's been the crux of the differences between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Is that a 1030 low in the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM at 12Z....again not a good model at 48 hours but its badness at 48 pales in comparison to the NAM's badness beyond 48-54 so its interesting.... Is a 1030 GL Low not really a GL high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:24 PM, Ian said: Is that a 1030 low in the lakes? 1060 high coming down through Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:30 PM, stormtracker said: 1060 high coming down through Montana. I guess it's relatively low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 this looks like one of those showery/downsloping events that doesn't stick, but it's better than nothing, so sure, i guess i'l check back in here in 3 hours. nothing else to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:37 PM, 87storms said: this looks like one of those showery/downsloping events that doesn't stick, but it's better than nothing, so sure, i guess i'l check back in here in 3 hours. nothing else to track. Temps will be cold enough for stickage. It won't be 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm seeing nada on GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:37 PM, 87storms said: this looks like one of those showery/downsloping events that doesn't stick, but it's better than nothing, so sure, i guess i'l check back in here in 3 hours. nothing else to track. you won't have to wait long...old GFS says no way..not now...not ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 3:44 PM, eurojosh said: I'm seeing nada on GFS... its horrible...not even a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The differences between the NAM-GFS at 500mb are huge. GFS is progressive and shears the vort apart vs the nam slower and keeps it together . GFS progressive bias in play? Interested to see the CMC-EURO combo http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/new_500_nam_all_12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Our pattern seems to verify the progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I wouldn't count out getting some Snow, but we're not getting 3-6" like NAM/SREF would show. Equal chances of being Partly Cloudy and a half inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Just when you need the Euro to come on board it will go even further in the wrong direction. Bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 NAM/RGEM rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 4:10 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: I wouldn't count out getting some Snow, but we're not getting 3-6" like NAM/SREF would show. Equal chances of being Partly Cloudy and a half inch of snow. Funny how the NAM holds tough sometimes though. If it were a person it would be the ultimate weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 GGEM at 500 looks nearly identical to the NAM http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=QQ500&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=QQ500&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 yesterday's NAM for precip totals at 1p today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 5:01 PM, Ian said: yesterday's NAM for precip totals at 1p today Dan pointed that out. It has been less than stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 All the models have significantly lowered precip totals for today last night. wasn't just the nam. CMC has massively amped compared to 00z. Not there yet but here it comes https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gifhttps://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Not there yet ! but huge changes at 500mb. Leap towards the SREF-NAM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 NAM and CMC vs GFS and Euro. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 5:22 PM, eurojosh said: NAM and CMC vs GFS and Euro. Hmmmm. #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 5:22 PM, eurojosh said: NAM and CMC vs GFS and Euro. Hmmmm. NO CMC really barely gets 0.01" up to us. It's a compromise solution between the more skillful Euro/GFS and NAm solutions. Too bad the NAM and GGEM are less skillful than the other two models. I'll be interested in today's ukmet as it had us in precip last night and it's a pretty good model at least at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 On 12/28/2014 at 5:30 PM, usedtobe said: NO CMC really barely gets 0.01" up to us. Conveniently, that's the new bar to make a winter storm event thread successful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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