snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 lol I thought that goes without saying. Tell that to Rainman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 00z GGEM does produce some significant icing for many of us before the transition to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The trowal and frontogenesis signal (for heavy snow banding) looks decent with this one. It could certainly be a nice snowstorm for some in our subforum if it phases soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 00z GGEM does produce some significant icing for many of us before the transition to rain... This is a worry of mine esepically if we end up remaining g very cold over the next few days. However, since we have no snow pack around to maintain the low level cold air, once WAA started in earnest it would flip to rain pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Meteogram off the 0z GGEM gives 10mm (just under 0.4") of freezing rain to ORD. Happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 0z Euro going to track through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 0z Euro going to track through Ohio. 1009mb low over Cincinnati at 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro has a favorable track but it is suffering from its newest bias of being cheap on cold sector precip, especially with the storm wrapping up nicely as it passes by. I would say this was a bit of a dramatic jump north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 one of the few times where the euro will have been at the back of the pack? OP came further nw, and the enembles are even further nw than that. Now the 6z para is way nw with a track over Chicago. Kinda funny to think the gfs may have lead the troops on this one. Things starting to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well, as you wished, the northern stream certainly did grow a pair on the 00z GGEM. I just don't think it grew the type of pair you'd hope for though. Lol. I was praising the consistency of the Canadian, then it does that to me. It not only picked up on the trend, it ran a sprint with it. Now the Euro is more in line with what the GGEM had been showing for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 one of the few times where the euro will have been at the back of the pack? OP came further nw, and the enembles are even further nw than that. Now the 6z para is way nw with a track over Chicago. Kinda funny to think the gfs may have lead the troops on this one. Things starting to sort out. whats the ensemble mean track? Still lots of spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 whats the ensemble mean track? Still lots of spread? C AR- Ann Arbor-Kitchener,On but the low is broad and spread extends from E IL-Kingston, On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hate the thought of the +FZRN to rain dry slotted look this am for DTX.... Things will change before reality is before us !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ice storms just don't happen here along the lake, toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'd take the 6z GFS in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'd take the 6z GFS in a heartbeatAnd the 12z OP. PGFS is warmer, deeper and much slower, but does change to snow as the low deepens over lower MI. Edit: Nice swath of snow from SE WI back to the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 And the 12z OP. PGFS is warmer, deeper and much slower, but does change to snow as the low deepens over lower MI. Edit: Nice swath of snow from SE WI back to the QCA. Yeah still a solid solution. 3-5" for city/88 corridor and of course a Mt Geos jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The more amped/north solutions from the recent runs seem to be a result of a much more robust northern stream system moving in much quicker than previous runs. Look how much quicker and stronger the northern stream system is on the 12z from today compared to the 12z from yesterday. If trends for a quicker/stronger incoming northern stream system continue then we will likely end up with a more amped up southern stream system compared to the worthless bowling ball system the models have shown at times the last few days. Yesterday's 12z at 12z Sat Today's 12z at 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 1. Large features are the ones predominantly at play: A cutoff low and a broad continental scale height fall region. Also see: No wave phasing dependence and no northern stream shortwaves of major importance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The more amped/north solutions from the recent runs seem to be a result of a much more robust northern stream system moving in much quicker than previous runs. Look how much quicker and stronger the northern stream system is on the 12z from today compared to the 12z from yesterday. If trends for a quicker/stronger incoming northern stream system continue then we will likely end up with a more amped up southern stream system compared to the worthless bowling ball system the models have shown at times the last few days. Yesterday's 12z at 12z Sat Today's 12z at 12z Sat Which won't do much good for majority of the subforum, as it would lead to a warm/NW solution (if the southern stream wave doesn't slow down or the northern stream doesn't trend any faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Which won't do much good for majority of the subforum, as it would lead to a warm/NW solution (if the southern stream wave doesn't slow down or the northern stream doesn't trend any faster). both of which happen all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 both of which happen all the time Sure. Hopefully we can get it to happen this time also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z gem still on the amped train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Which won't do much good for majority of the subforum, as it would lead to a warm/NW solution (if the southern stream wave doesn't slow down or the northern stream doesn't trend any faster). Without a stronger northern stream wave though the southern stream could end up being a bowling ball, which wouldn't do anyone any good. So yeah, too far northwest is a possibility, but I'd rather take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Without a stronger northern stream wave though the southern stream could end up being a bowling ball, which wouldn't do anyone any good. So yeah, too far northwest is a possibility, but I'd rather take my chances with that. for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Without a stronger northern stream wave though the southern stream could end up being a bowling ball, which wouldn't do anyone any good. So yeah, too far northwest is a possibility, but I'd rather take my chances with that. If the northern stream wave has enough room to dig further SE (before the SW shortwave ejects eastward), we can get a similarly amped storm further SE. Yesterday's 12z GGEM was close to showing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If the northern stream wave has enough room to dig further SE (before the SW shortwave ejects eastward), we can get a similarly amped storm further SE. Yeah, and that wouldn't surprise me with the run to run changes in speed and intensity with that northern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Ice threat will have to be watched as has been alluded to, though I'd prefer to see if there are any changes in the system evolution over the course of the upcoming model runs before getting more concerned about that. Certainly a climatologically favorable time of year even without snowcover in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Bombs away on the 12z Canadian. Bad model, but fun solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ice storms just don't happen here along the lake, toss There were some decent ones in the city decades ago...but not easy to do and I'd say you would need a solid setup to pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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