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New Years' Weekend Snow Potential


Rainman

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00z GGEM does produce some significant icing for many of us before the transition to rain...

This is a worry of mine esepically if we end up remaining g very cold over the next few days. However, since we have no snow pack around to maintain the low level cold air, once WAA started in earnest it would flip to rain pretty quick.
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one of the few times where the euro will have been at the back of the pack?   OP came further nw, and the enembles are even further nw than that.   Now the 6z para is way nw with a track over Chicago.   Kinda funny to think the gfs may have lead the troops on this one. 

Things starting to sort out.

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Well, as you wished, the northern stream certainly did grow a pair on the 00z GGEM. 

 

I just don't think it grew the type of pair you'd hope for though. :lol:

 

Lol. I was praising the consistency of the Canadian, then it does that to me. It not only picked up on the trend, it ran a sprint with it. Now the Euro is more in line with what the GGEM had been showing for several runs.

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one of the few times where the euro will have been at the back of the pack? OP came further nw, and the enembles are even further nw than that. Now the 6z para is way nw with a track over Chicago. Kinda funny to think the gfs may have lead the troops on this one.

Things starting to sort out.

whats the ensemble mean track? Still lots of spread?
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The more amped/north solutions from the recent runs seem to be a result of a much more robust northern stream system moving in much quicker than previous runs.  Look how much quicker and stronger the northern stream system is on the 12z from today compared to the 12z from yesterday.  If trends for a quicker/stronger incoming northern stream system continue then we will likely end up with a more amped up southern stream system compared to the worthless bowling ball system the models have shown at times the last few days.

 

Yesterday's 12z at 12z Sat

14wqio.jpg

 

 

Today's 12z at 12z Sat
11c5q82.jpg

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The more amped/north solutions from the recent runs seem to be a result of a much more robust northern stream system moving in much quicker than previous runs.  Look how much quicker and stronger the northern stream system is on the 12z from today compared to the 12z from yesterday.  If trends for a quicker/stronger incoming northern stream system continue then we will likely end up with a more amped up southern stream system compared to the worthless bowling ball system the models have shown at times the last few days.

 

Yesterday's 12z at 12z Sat

14wqio.jpg

 

 

Today's 12z at 12z Sat

11c5q82.jpg

 

Which won't do much good for majority of the subforum, as it would lead to a warm/NW solution (if the southern stream wave doesn't slow down or the northern stream doesn't trend any faster).

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Which won't do much good for majority of the subforum, as it would lead to a warm/NW solution (if the southern stream wave doesn't slow down or the northern stream doesn't trend any faster).

 

Without a stronger northern stream wave though the southern stream could end up being a bowling ball, which wouldn't do anyone any good.  So yeah, too far northwest is a possibility, but I'd rather take my chances with that.

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Without a stronger northern stream wave though the southern stream could end up being a bowling ball, which wouldn't do anyone any good.  So yeah, too far northwest is a possibility, but I'd rather take my chances with that.

 

If the northern stream wave has enough room to dig further SE (before the SW shortwave ejects eastward), we can get a similarly amped storm further SE.

 

Yesterday's 12z GGEM was close to showing this...

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Ice threat will have to be watched as has been alluded to, though I'd prefer to see if there are any changes in the system evolution over the course of the upcoming model runs before getting more concerned about that.  Certainly a climatologically favorable time of year even without snowcover in many areas.

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