blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Thought it was interesting to note that only 3-4 GEFS members have a suppressed track. The rest have either a major snowstorm threat or a rain/snow mix for parts of the sub forum(especially the eastern half). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why even bother with the gfs, pgfs, gefs, etc al? Ride the euro and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why even bother with the gfs, pgfs, gefs, etc al? Ride the euro and call it a day Lol. Much too early to punt on this one yet. gem.jpg I'm riding the Canadian train. The Euro has been flipping almost as bad as the GFS, PGFS, etc. As I said the other day, I'm still aboard the GGEM. With one exception (the 12/29 00z run), it has been the most consistent with the track of the surface low through the Ohio Valley for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The Euro has been flipping almost as bad as the GFS, PGFS, etc. As I said the other day, I'm still aboard the GGEM. With one exception (the 12/29 00z run), it has been the most consistent with the track of the surface low through the Ohio Valley for several days. I wouldnt ride any model with this storm....but as you said, the Euro has been everywhere (not to mention theres a huge spread in its ensembles, including many NW/amped). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The Euro has been flipping almost as bad as the GFS, PGFS, etc. As I said the other day, I'm still aboard the GGEM. With one exception (the 12/29 00z run), it has been the most consistent with the track of the surface low through the Ohio Valley for several days. I will say this about the euro, (even though i have a feeling its going to bite me in the ass lol), usually when it amps a storm in the long range and then crushes it out in later runs, that's a pretty good signal (usually) that the crush will end up being closer to the real solution vs. the amped versions coming back. Totally anecdotal, just something I've observed in general, although I'm sure there have been some exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The Euro has been flipping almost as bad as the GFS, PGFS, etc. As I said the other day, I'm still aboard the GGEM. With one exception (the 12/29 00z run), it has been the most consistent with the track of the surface low through the Ohio Valley for several days. Coming into this winter I had a ggem love affair hangover from last winter when it seemed to have scored some major snowfall coupes for us. It's been HORRID this season, a complete turn around. Or maybe it's always been horrid and last winter's coupes were blind squirrels and nuts. Either way, case in point, on xmas day it was showing a snowstorm thru Ohio for....tomorrow. nuff said. All models are sucking and blowing right now....but if someone held a gun to my head and told me I had to board one of them, I'd update my will and crawl aboard the euro, trembling with tears running down my cheeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sadly, riding the Euro and calling it a day is not bad advice much of the time. But it can be and is wrong, and it can be the worst model. Maybe it happens only twice a year, but it's up to us to spot that and not get kicked in the face by a bad Euro solution. It could be right, but I think it is a touch behind the other models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I will say this about the euro, (even though i have a feeling its going to bite me in the ass lol), usually when it amps a storm in the long range and then crushes it out in later runs, that's a pretty good signal (usually) that the crush will end up being closer to the real solution vs. the amped versions coming back. Totally anecdotal, just something I've observed in general, although I'm sure there have been some exceptions. The Euro seems to over phase lows...so, if a low is bound to phase, the Euro might nail it first. If the Euro doesn't show a phase, you have some work to do if you want one, so I can see what you're saying. This system's track and intensity will depend largely on how quick and in what state the shortwave/cut-off ejects out of the southwest. The cut-off nature of the system favors the slower models like the Euro, UK, PGFS and to an extent the Canadian. The Euro is pretty strung out when it ejects the system hence the suppressed track. I'd give the Euro's timing the nod which argues against a far NW solution like the operational GFS, but I'd like to see if it is correct in ejecting the energy in multiple weak pieces before buying the super suppressed solution as the other models don't really do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Pattern recognition would favor a slower solution...whether it's as slow as the Euro is another matter. The 12z run was considerably slower than other guidance...like a day slower by the time it gets toward our longitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 00z NAM just showed why running it out to 84 hours is a waste of computing resources. And now they're going to take that 84 hour solution and use it to initialize the DGEX and run it out to a week. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 00z NAM just showed why running it out to 84 hours is a waste of computing resources. And now they're going to take that 84 hour solution and use it to initialize the DGEX and run it out to a week. Terrible. Shame on you for besmirching Jonger's go to solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 0z GFS looks like a similar track as the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 0z GFS looks like a similar track as the 18z. It's also very similar to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not gonna lie, if the EC comes in totally different than the GFS and GEM again I am going to be annoyed. Especially since the former 2 are pretty good for SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not gonna lie, if the EC comes in totally different than the GFS and GEM again I am going to be annoyed. Especially since the former 2 are pretty good for SE Michigan. A majorityof the 12z EPS members were amped/more NW of the OP. That's a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 PGFS joins the GEM and GFS now. That model has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Surface low really deepens on the pGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 PGFS joins the GEM and GFS now. That model has been all over the place. Disagree. PGFS has always had a more southern track up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Disagree. PGFS has always had a more southern track up until now. Except for when it had northern tracks through the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Disagree. PGFS has always had a more southern track up until now. There were some runs earlier on that were pretty far north. Here's an example...the 18z run from the 27th. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 00z GGEM is interesting, though not a good outcome unless you're pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Disagree. PGFS has always had a more southern track up until now. The para has been all over the place (it was just the first to go suppressed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 00z GGEM is interesting, though not a good outcome unless you're pretty far north. Yep. Has a 998mb low near Duluth at 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still say the PGFS has been more consistently on the south side but if you're gonna say it's been all over the place, you might as well say the rest of them have been too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still say the PGFS has been more consistently on the south side but if you're gonna say it's been all over the place, you might as well say the rest of them have been too. And that probably won't end any time soon with this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, I'm noticing that the northern stream needs to grow a pair. Well, as you wished, the northern stream certainly did grow a pair on the 00z GGEM. I just don't think it grew the type of pair you'd hope for though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still say the PGFS has been more consistently on the south side but if you're gonna say it's been all over the place, you might as well say the rest of them have been too. lol I thought that goes without saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 And that probably won't end any time soon with this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 And that probably won't end any time soon with this system... Thanks, but no thanks for the fix. There is still the very slim chance we will start to get some consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks, but no thanks for the fix. There is still the very slim chance we will start to get some consistently Meh, we will see. If thats the case, then it can start with the clipper on the heels of this weekends storm. very nice model agreement for so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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