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New Years' Weekend Snow Potential


Rainman

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By 114 the placement of northern stream energy(kicker and downstream PV) is almost identical to the 12z GEM yet the cutoff is much more positively tilted on the euro. May be holding the energy back in the SW incorrectly.

 

EDIT: Ends up ejecting as a sheared/suppressed mess while the GEM/GFS have a much more organized/progressive cutoff low. Euro could be wrong in this case. Thoughts?

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By 114 the placement of northern stream energy(kicker and downstream PV) is almost identical to the 12z GEM yet the cutoff is much more positively tilted on the euro. May be holding the energy back in the SW incorrectly.

 

EDIT: Ends up ejecting as a sheared/suppressed mess while the GEM/GFS have a much more organized/progressive cutoff low. Euro could be wrong in this case. Thoughts?

 

 

Not sure if the Euro still has that slow cutoff bias liked it used to.

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this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagined

 

and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010

You can't say that this system is going to be a miss. Too many wild model swings right now to be confident.
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this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagined

 

and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010

The bias is still there though, it is more sad that we have been talking about it for years and it still hasn't been corrected.

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The 12z run of the EC ENS look more favourable then the 0z run with the heaviest QPF across the eastern part of the subforum/interior northeast. Lots and lots of spread though.

 

Wouldn't want to commit to any particular solution given the volatile setup although I am personally leaning towards the more amped up guidance.

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