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New Years' Weekend Snow Potential

Rainman

By Rainman,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

A phased storm gives it more lift and this increases instability causing the trough to go more negatively titled.

 

If this system phases and causes the trough to take on a negative tilt too soon, that would force a further NW track and draw even more warm air northward.

 

Wouldn't that be bad for Toronto if you're looking forward to a snowstorm?

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

I think you fail to realize they're not the same model. So one shouldn't expect them to show a similar solution, especially this far out and with this kind of set-up.

 

Oh, I was under the impression it was just an upgraded version of the originally GFS with higher resolution.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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Oh, I was under the impression it was just an upgraded version of the originally GFS with higher resolution.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/

It is an upgraded version, with higher resolution and several other changes...which essentially makes it a totally different model.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Really? Around D6-7 with the Xmas storm there were a number of solutions showing a RA to sig. SN transition across the eastern Lakes. It was to the point where I think you even categorically stated that there should be at least "some" accumulating snow iyby on Christmas Eve/day.

 

If we compare apples to apples I think the raw potential between the two storms this many days out are comparable (if not slightly weighed in favour of the Xmas storm because of the bomb potential).

I did state that I would see some accum snow. From day 1 when that storm was on the models, I was amazed at how outstanding the model agreement on wraparound snow/LES was on all models for Christmas day (which in the end didnt pan out at all, as in not one flake). I was banking on that to see some light accums, and seeing the signal in that stronger than usual for wraparound (which can often fail), I had a very good feel about that. However, from day 1, I was also probably the least excited weenie on these boards, because there really were no favorable solutions IMO. There were a few that showed rain to snow, but even those had startlingly warm surface temps...so while everyone else was hoping/banking that the phase would draw its own cold, the L would be super strong, etc etc...it looked like a bonifide rainstorm to me with wraparound snow, regardless of low track. I was never excited at all (the bomb solutions didnt excite me, because they still showed rain, and I could not care how meteorologically rare a storm is in the winter if its not snow for me). This storm on the other hand seems to have much more wintry POTENTIAL. And its funny that there was decent model agreement 7-8 days out and now that we are 5 days out the models are once again going everywhere.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

If this system phases and causes the trough to take on a negative tilt too soon, that would force a further NW track and draw even more warm air northward.

Wouldn't that be bad for Toronto if you're looking forward to a snowstorm?

True. I guess timing is everything with this storm. A much slower southern stream means less amplification (less uplift), and a more further south track like what the Para GFS shows. If however, the trough diggers further south, we can get more amplification because of the stronger Jet streak, and this will allow the storm to go more NE than N.

Compared to the Xmas storm, we do have more abundant cold air to work with thanks to the EPO ridge and stronger Polar jet stream. The strong SE Ridge on the 0z GFS is not good though, lol.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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The difference between the 0z OP GFS and the 0z P-GFS/12z ECMWF is how the northern stream is handled. The OP GFS has much more northern stream influence and phasing (and early in the sequence), where the other two not so much... Northern stream never really gets involved much until the southern stream wave is moving into the OV, where it's picked up by the flow and speeds east.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

While many solutions are on the table (even the elusive MSP special), I would definitely lean the direction of a Ohio Valley-southward storm,

 

 

Models in these setups tend to always be too quick to send those orphaned shortwaves in the SW eastward, and usually the extent of northern stream interaction needed to allow for the non-suppressed solutions is just missed.

 

Just a slightly faster ejection of the SW shortwave or the northern stream shortwave setting up just a bit further west will allow for the non-suppressed solutions though.

 

May have nailed it...

 

If so, +1 for me!!!

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS comes north compared to the 6z GFS. Wow! This model went through a 500+ mile shift in 3 runs, lol. 

 

Weaker amplification with this run. Trough stays mostly neutral, not much negativity until it reaches the great lakes region.

 

Models are all over the place. I wouldn't buy anything yet. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Gino at LOT rubbing it in about Las Vegas :P

 

 


STRONG TROUGH WILL TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEW YEARS EVE   AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE LAS VEGAS STRIP   NEW YEARS EVE WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT! THIS   POWERFUL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF A LARGE DEEP CIRCULATION   THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. A SET UP LIKE THIS MORE   OFTEN THAN NOT SPELLS BIG TROUBLES FOR PREDICTABILITY IN THE MEDIUM   RANGE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT A COUPLE OF THE THINGS THAT MODELS   STRUGGLE WITH...FIRST HANDLING TRACK/TIMING OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST   CUT OFFS AND SECOND THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM   SHORTWAVE ENERGY.     THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND IN OUR AREA TRULY RUN THE   GAMUT FROM DRY CONDITIONS ALL WEEKEND TO RAIN...ACCUMULATING   SNOW...A WINTRY MIX...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE. THE   OPERATIONAL GFS IS MOST GUNG-HO WITH PHASING AND FASTEST EJECTING   THE LOW EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO COUNTER WHAT IS TYPICAL IN   THESE SCENARIOS. THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SOUTH AND   SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND IN OUR AREA.   THE BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS   CYCLES AND AM NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THEM AS PREDICTABILITY IS   JUST TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LAS  VEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS  CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA...QUITE ATYPICAL AND  DEFINITELY NOT SOMETHING THAT ONE WOULD TYPICALLY WAGER WOULD BE  THE CASE!    IZZI  
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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS comes north compared to the 6z GFS. Wow! This model went through a 500+ mile shift in 3 runs, lol. 

 

Weaker amplification with this run. Trough stays mostly neutral, not much negativity until it reaches the great lakes region.

 

Models are all over the place. I wouldn't buy anything yet. 

 

 

Not sure if I know what you're talking about.  We actually have more amplification on this run compared to 6z, especially with the northern stream.

 

 

post-14-0-34500100-1419871693_thumb.gif

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Not sure if I know what you're talking about.  We actually have more amplification on this run compared to 6z, especially with the northern stream.

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs.gif

 

I was comparing it to the 0z, my bad. Should have detailed my post a bit more.

 

But yeah, more amplification this run compared to the 6z. Still doesn't help our cause especially when the model shifts 500 miles in 3 runs, lol. 

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