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New Years' Weekend Snow Potential

Rainman

By Rainman,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Actually previous runs had shown a significant area of snow....it was last nights 00z runs that showed little cold sector precip, so so far it would appear it was those that were the blip

 

well we might both be wrong/right.    I checked and yesterday's 12z euro run showed little cold sector precip, as did the 00z euro run.   The 12z ggem yesterday did have a nice snow for Chicago-MI...then lost the snow at 00z.

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Kaner88

Kaner88

Posted
Posted

Parallel is much much much slower than the op GFS which leads to suppression instead of phasing. It is a possible outcome but I am not sold on it happening with the upstream kicker coming in.

Don't know if this was posted earlier, here's a tidbit from LOT's AFD yesterday that might be worth watching:

 

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING

INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE

NORTHEAST WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS

TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...WHILE THE LONGER RANGE

GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TREND...THERE ARE

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN

THE ECMWF OR GEM. GIVEN THAT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOWS TEND TO LINGER

LONGER THAN THE MODELS LIKE TO FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED THE LONGER

TERM FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS TREND EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY

INDICATED. SO...WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES

CONDUCIVE TO SNOW FOR NOW.

KREIN

 

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Kaner88

Kaner88

Posted
Posted

Latest AFD out of LOT re-affirms yesterday's thoughts:

 

THE NEXT QUESTION FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND CLOSING OFF OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD INITIATE SOME HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
MIDWEST...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN SPITE
OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE NCNTRL/NERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER HIGH PARKS OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WRN CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
FOCUS ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
AND...ULTIMATELY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...AND HOW MUCH PHASING
WILL OCCUR WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TRENDING
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
ADVERTISING THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND THE GEM TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. STILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR A SRN STREAM
CUT-OFF AS THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING TOO FAST IN LIFTING
THESE SYSTEM NEWD. 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Meh, obviously this storm wont please everyone and some will be disappointed, but clearly this storm has more wintry potential than the Christmas Eve storm.

 

Really? Around D6-7 with the Xmas storm there were a number of solutions showing a RA to sig. SN transition across the eastern Lakes. It was to the point where I think you even categorically stated that there should be at least "some" accumulating snow iyby on Christmas Eve/day.

 

If we compare apples to apples I think the raw potential between the two storms this many days out are comparable (if not slightly weighed in favour of the Xmas storm because of the bomb potential).

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Really? Around D6-7 with the Xmas storm there were a number of solutions showing a RA to sig. SN transition across the eastern Lakes. It was to the point where I think you even categorically stated that there should be at least "some" accumulating snow iyby on Christmas Eve/day.

 

If we compare apples to apples I think the raw potential between the two storms this many days out are comparable (if not slightly weighed in favour of the Xmas storm because of the bomb potential).

 

if i had to place my bets right now, I'd have to go with a sheared out meaningless mess.   That has been the storm pattern.  The only reason the santabomb wasn't, was because the starting point for it was 960mb.

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Baum

Baum

Posted
Posted

Its the talk of the shaft we got on the Christmas storm...

Ryan, it was always a thread the needle storm. Here's a tip on the next one- cut off lows in the southwest are always a bad sign IMO. It screams the weak El Niño maybe having more influence then anticipated. Positive maybe we get our snows in some cutters unlike last year. But sustained cold and clippers like last season will not be the standard. Then again, I'm a novice. But if your down on the lack of winter take it to the b**ch thread...I've been there.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Really? Around D6-7 with the Xmas storm there were a number of solutions showing a RA to sig. SN transition across the eastern Lakes. It was to the point where I think you even categorically stated that there should be at least "some" accumulating snow iyby on Christmas Eve/day.

 

If we compare apples to apples I think the raw potential between the two storms this many days out are comparable (if not slightly weighed in favour of the Xmas storm because of the bomb potential).

 

I'd waiver any possibility at this point in time. Its still 5-7 days out, and we've seen how bad the models were even within 36 hours of the Xmas storm. If the SE Ridge ends up being stronger, this could track right through the Upper Great Lakes. Were in a really tight situation. With such a strong gradient, the potential is there for a significant ice storm for some. 

 

The one added bonus is the EPO ridge, which the Xmas Storm didn't have. This could be a helping hand for us because it'll drive alot of frigid air down from the Prairies and work into the system keeping the SE Ridge at bay. 

 

IMO, i think the set-up is similar to the Jan 99 storm, no? 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I'd waiver any possibility at this point in time. Its still 5-7 days out, and we've seen how bad the models were even within 36 hours of the Xmas storm. If the SE Ridge ends up being stronger, this could track right through the Upper Great Lakes. Were in a really tight situation. With such a strong gradient, the potential is there for a significant ice storm for some. 

 

The one added bonus is the EPO ridge, which the Xmas Storm didn't have. This could be a helping hand for us because it'll drive alot of frigid air down from the Prairies and work into the system keeping the SE Ridge at bay. 

 

IMO, i think the set-up is similar to the Jan 99 storm, no? 

 

 

Both have a low kicking out of the southern Plains.  Other than that similarity which can be cited for countless storms, I see no real similarities to January 1999. 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I'd waiver any possibility at this point in time. Its still 5-7 days out, and we've seen how bad the models were even within 36 hours of the Xmas storm. If the SE Ridge ends up being stronger, this could track right through the Upper Great Lakes. Were in a really tight situation. With such a strong gradient, the potential is there for a significant ice storm for some. 

 

The one added bonus is the EPO ridge, which the Xmas Storm didn't have. This could be a helping hand for us because it'll drive alot of frigid air down from the Prairies and work into the system keeping the SE Ridge at bay. 

 

IMO, i think the set-up is similar to the Jan 99 storm, no? 

 

I don't see it. Quicker, more fulsome phase in 1999, which had the corollary of a slower moving, closed off storm. Both the EURO and GFS are depicting a quick moving mostly southern stream s/w.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I don't see it. Quicker, more fulsome phase in 1999, which had the corollary of a slower moving, closed off storm. Both the EURO and GFS are depicting a quick moving mostly southern stream s/w.

 

 

Phasing was indeed much more pronounced back then. 

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0101.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0102.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0103.php

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Both have a low kicking out of the southern Plains.  Other than that similarity which can be cited for countless storms, I see no real similarities to January 1999. 

 

 

I don't see it. Quicker, more fulsome phase in 1999, which had the corollary of a slower moving, closed off storm. Both the EURO and GFS are depicting a quick moving mostly southern stream s/w.

 

True thanks guys. I just analyzed the vort maps and found no real similarity. Not much northern stream influence meaning no real phase with this storm. This is all based on the reanalysis charts on e-Wall. 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

 

Yeah, the northern stream wave dropping into the Plains there late on the 1st is completely absent from the upcoming storm.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Huh?

 

What I meant to say was that if we had more northern stream influence, it would be beneficial for our region. A phased storm gives it more lift and this increases instability causing the trough to go more negatively titled. The jet streak when analyzing the wind barriers is strong enough for some good amplification which is what the latest GFS sort of shows. 

 

Not sure if you understand me or i'm just talking to blatantly. 

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