buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yup. I think it's a throw away Euro run. I've seen this trick before. meh, I've also seen where the cutoff energy starts slowing down and digging more and more where it ends up going thru n. Mexico and you end up with a sheared mess off the carolina coast. The way things have been this year it's really hard to believe in a stronger, more phased solution. But maybe that's different now that we're in a changed pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 meh, I've also seen where the cutoff energy starts slowing down and digging more and more where it ends up going thru n. Mexico and you end up with a sheared mess off the carolina coast. The way things have been this year it's really hard to believe in a stronger, more phased solution. But maybe that's different now that we're in a changed pattern. The parent cutoff digging deeper isn't what is being shown thought so that isn't a relevant comparison to the current run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The parent cutoff digging deeper isn't what is being shown thought so that isn't a relevant comparison to the current run of the Euro. I know it's not being shown as digging deeper now, but if it hangs back enough and cuts off, it could easily track through southern lala land. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's probably just as possible as an earlier kick-out with a phased strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I know it's not being shown as digging deeper now, but if it hangs back enough and cuts off, it could easily track through southern lala land. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's probably just as possible as an earlier kick-out with a phased strong storm. With a negative PNA and a positive NAO it isn't taking a southern track. Its fine to worry about the system not working out, but at least worry about reasonable things like Ohio getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's still 5 days out, but this one looks like a northern Michigan storm and possibly UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 With a negative PNA and a positive NAO it isn't taking a southern track. Its fine to worry about the system not working out, but at least worry about reasonable things like Ohio getting rain. maybe you're right...the gfs will score the coupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 A snippet from this morning disco for the system. This afternoon's had the same wording. I'm thinking that this is a ballsy call on precip type this early in the game. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACTTRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THENORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THEREMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like the 12z EPS mean trended towards the op run. Much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's still 5 days out, but this one looks like a northern Michigan storm and possibly UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's where he snowmobiles, no other reason than wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's still 5 days out, but this one looks like a northern Michigan storm and possibly UP. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Here's the 12z GFS Ensembles. Still a good mix of solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Here's the 12z GFS Ensembles. Still a good mix of solutions... Several of them are much less amped than the 00z/06z GFS ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 A snippet from this morning disco for the system. This afternoon's had the same wording. I'm thinking that this is a ballsy call on precip type this early in the game. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 ...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT TRACK BECOMES SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE REMAINING TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. Both IND and IWX have it warm. Only on Friday night is the forecast cold enough for all snow. Rain or a mix during Friday and Saturday. Too bad the cold and moisture can align this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Both IND and IWX have it warm. Only on Friday night is the forecast cold enough for all snow. Rain or a mix during Friday and Saturday. Too bad the cold and moisture can align this week. this is what both the ggem and euro were showing up until today's 12z run. Very little cold sector precip to speak of. Don't know if the change is just a blip and we'll go back to that or if the trend is to start showing a more appreciable snow event for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 this is what both the ggem and euro were showing up until today's 12z run. Very little cold sector precip to speak of. Don't know if the change is just a blip and we'll go back to that or if the trend is to start showing a more appreciable snow event for someone. Actually previous runs had shown a significant area of snow....it was last nights 00z runs that showed little cold sector precip, so so far it would appear it was those that were the blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The 18z GFS looks like it may come southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 With a negative PNA and a positive NAO it isn't taking a southern track. Its fine to worry about the system not working out, but at least worry about reasonable things like Ohio getting rain. Should we really be talking precip types this far out? Seemed the 12z models took a southern route but perhaps I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The 18z GFS looks like it may come southward... With the trough going negative tilt that far west it should come north. It would just take a wider turn instead of a flat track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 With the trough going negative tilt that far west it should come north. It would just take a wider turn instead of a flat track.Perhaps he meant it would come south from prior GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Perhaps he meant it would come south from prior GFS runs. Yes. It's over the AR/MO/KY/TN border on the 18z run, whereas it was over St. Louis on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 18z GFS came south some. SLP moves from extreme S IL to CLE to KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Perhaps he meant it would come south from prior GFS runs. Yep, tracked south of indianapolis to near cleveland, but the snow totals sucked only 2-3" from just north of chicago to central mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yes. It's over the AR/MO/KY/TN border on the 18z run, whereas it was over St. Louis on the 12z run. Yeah but it still ends up passing us at the same spot though, just a wider turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yeah but it still ends up passing us at the same spot though, just a wider turn. Definitely south and somewhat colder from what I can see. 12z GFS tracked the surface low over Saginaw, while the 18z GFS track the surface low over Cleveland. Most notably, the difference appears to be more confluence over GL/New England and Canada before the shortwave ejected from the desert SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Para is gOing to be another miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Para is gOing to be another miss to the south. I'm kind of dreading the day when the PGFS replaces the OP GFS, it's been pretty bad worse than the old GFS IMO. And I like being able to look at both of them fwiw lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 At 144h the PGFS has the low south of new orleans in the gulf of mexico, and the OP GFS has it tracking over Cleveland, been a few runs with crazy differences like this now over the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's still 5 days out, but this one looks like a northern Michigan storm and possibly UP. well you definitely have a model on your side....the 18z dgex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Parallel is much much much slower than the op GFS which leads to suppression instead of phasing. It is a possible outcome but I am not sold on it happening with the upstream kicker coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.