Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

New Years' Weekend Snow Potential


Rainman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 904
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Figures. Just has the other models(minus GFS) move south, the Euro heads north. :axe:

I don't think anything except the GGEM moved south and I wouldn't live and die by the GGEM on any system. Especially one that comes out of the desert southwest which it notoriously gets wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow.

 

Speaking of the pGFS, I heard that its scores are lower than the current OP GFS at 500mb...

 

Is this true?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS is pretty warm and north. All models tend to pull closed lows back into the flow too fast, but the GFS much more so than the Euro. I think the higher resolution of the PGFS could pay dividends here as it should better capture the sensitive interaction of the low with the mean flow.

The 12z GFS is pretty far north but it did adjust south compared to 6z and has a much more significant front end thump for eastern areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I noticed that, a huge difference from the GFS. Can someone help me identify why such a large spread? Greater SE ridge influence or quicker ingestion of the ull on the GFS?

 

Besides the OP GFS ejecting the desert SW shortwave much faster, it's also diving the northern stream wave further SW, which allows for a quicker phase...

 

f144.gif

 

gfsp_z500_mslp_us_25.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gotta agree with what Stebo said earlier. GFS's sfc low track seems too far north given where the H5 shortwave is positioned.

 

 

Crappy physics FTL.

 

 

Between 159 and 165 it seems to be doing a pretty bad job with the surface low placement. Should be corrected to more of an ORD-DTW-KBUF type track IMO.

 

I could understand what you guys are saying if this were an open wave within a long wave trough.

 

But with this particular shortwave already being closed off as it exits the desert SW, wouldn't a low track close to the 500mb center make sense (in other words, a vertically stacked low)? These surface lows tend to normally be pulled back to the center of the ULL like a magnet as the shortwaves move eastward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could understand what you guys are saying if this were an open wave within a long wave trough.

 

But with this particular shortwave already being closed off as it exits the desert SW, wouldn't a low track close to the 500mb center make sense (in other words, a vertically stacked low)? These surface lows tend to normally be pulled back to the center of the ULL like a magnet as the shortwaves move eastward.

Close to the center yes, but not north of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro is leaving energy behind and cutting it off into Mexico by 168, leading to the trough being positively tilted longer, I don't buy that sort of outcome for one minute. It's just the Euro being the Euro with SW shortwaves/cutoffs.

 

 

Might not happen, but to me that is the most likely way something would torpedo this setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Might not happen, but to me that is the most likely way something would torpedo this setup.

If you loop the Euro's vorticity maps, the vorticity pops up out of no where that eventually leads to the 2nd cutoff. I am not going to buy the phantom vorticity leading to the threat being nuked. I would be shocked if it shows this on tonight's run
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro is leaving energy behind and cutting it off into Mexico by 168, leading to the trough being positively tilted longer, I don't buy that sort of outcome for one minute. It's just the Euro being the Euro with SW shortwaves/cutoffs.

Yup. I think it's a throw away Euro run. I've seen this trick before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...