Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 When you say "chop," do you mean it's shifting the mixing line further north Yeah, cutting snow amounts on the southern end. Not a big shift but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah, cutting snow amounts on the southern end. Not a big shift but noticeable. RAP is doing the same thing. Bit by bit each run, it's delaying the arrival of the precip while simultaneously speeding up arrival of the warmer air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Ukie had a much different solution than the other models at 144h, only mentioning this because it won the xmas eve storm with it's much slower / east solution.... so much model spread yet for this one ugh. would be pretty rare if it won 2 storms in a row though. Looks like it won this similar type storm, track wise as well, while even the Euro joined the north camp for a few runs, the Ukie kept insisting wagons east, guess I will pay more attention to it from now on as bad as the other models have been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Another thing to watch IMO is the blowing snow factor right after the defo snows move through Sunday morning. Temps drop pretty quickly as CAA picks up and winds increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z NAM: 0z GFS: Both models have MBY a hair south of the 5-6" line, one more nudge south please! #TeamSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 LAF jumped up to 32 with a dewpoint of 24. Precip rapidly moving northeast in central IL. Onset between 6-7z looks good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 LAF jumped up to 32 with a dewpoint of 24. Precip rapidly moving northeast in central IL. Onset between 6-7z looks good here. Just under 30 at my place despite torching earlier. Climbing though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 No freezing rain reports as of yet, but it's early. Snow quickly taking off over Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just under 30 at my place despite torching earlier. Climbing though... The dewpoint is the number to watch, as soon as you get some decent precip going the temp will drop to the dewpoint temp from dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The dewpoint is the number to watch, as soon as you get some decent precip going the temp will drop to the dewpoint temp from dynamic cooling. Doubtful in this scenario with continuing WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 30°/23° here currently. Not much movement in that departure so far this evening. Liking my chances of at least 3" by Sunday morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z RGEM went south 30 miles or so and cooler compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GEM initialized with horrible inaccuracy in the temperatures throughout the CWA. It is not 27 degrees here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 As long as lower level temperatures hold like modeled, we should stay all snow in WI. Only exception will be in between waves, where mid-level dry allows freezing drizzle to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 No ground truth to the returns in SW WI at the moment - at least at my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temps seem much colder than forecasted here... Sitting at 23°F and dew point at 21°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GGEM and snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Interesting solutions from the 0z runs of NMM/ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Like I said, Congrats N Illinois and Alek. Alek and Chicago Storm fail on the wagons west (though not sure what Chi Storm had for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wider view of the EURO. Yeah looks pretty good around here. Enough for a high end advisory tomorrow night I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Like I said, Congrats N Illinois and Alek. Alek and Chicago Storm fail on the wagons west (though not sure what Chi Storm had for this one.I never said wagons west...or east for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I never said wagons west...or east for that matter. You said it for the last storm, but yeah, I do acknowledge I'm not sure what your thoughts were for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 -SN at FEP right now, 28°. Nothing at RFD yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 2015/01/03 05:54 KLAF 030554Z AUTO 11006KT 7SM -RA OVC031 01/M02 A3016 RMK AO2 RAB38 PRESFR SLP217 P0000 60000 T00061017 10006 21028 58026 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'll go with a system snowfall total of 1.5" for ORD. Might adjust after 0z guidance. Gonna bump up to 2.5" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gonna bump up to 2.5" for ORD. I'm assuming most of that call is on the back end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Final call for Detroit: 1-2" rally of mod/heavy snow at the onset, rapidly transitioning to a cold rain then dry slot. Still feel good about this call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sleet falling in DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Started as sleet here but now have quickly changed over to mostly snow. Solid flake size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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