Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Dropped 5 degrees at LAF in the past hour...now 28/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If somebody in the LOT cwa is going to get decent icing overnight, I'd say keep an eye on the area including Kankakee and Rensselaer, which is what the HRRR is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If somebody in the LOT cwa is going to get decent icing overnight, I'd say keep an eye on the area including Kankakee and Rensselaer, which is what the HRRR is hinting at. Gonna have to set my alarm for 5:00 AM or so to see if the HRRR rippage actually verifies for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gonna have to set my alarm for 5:00 AM or so to see if the HRRR rippage actually verifies for once. Ale has you down for .9 and a bank clock reading of 33. Sleep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Ale has you down for .9 and a bank clock reading of 33. Sleep in. I would if all the damn mesoscale models weren't so aggressive on the front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would if all the damn mesoscale models weren't so aggressive on the front end snow. Damn them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would if all the damn mesoscale models weren't so aggressive on the front end snow. It would not surprise me.It's typical for these type of set ups to put down a quick inch or two before the warm air wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Comparing 00z RAOBs (DVN/ILX) to various progs valid 00z, it seems like the models may be underdoing temps a little bit in the mid levels. For example, observed 850 mb temp at DVN is -1C while the most recent models were in the -2 to -3 range at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The 22z HRRR is doing the same thing hrrr snow1.png hrrr snow.png Pretty big difference over Indiana on 23z HRRR. Don't think this will be the last of the shifts for the hi res guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 At the end of the day and putting thermals aside, this will just be too dry to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 At the end of the day and putting thermals aside, this will just be too dry to be interesting X2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Dropped 5 degrees at LAF in the past hour...now 28/21 32˚/19˚ at KTIM right now. Looking forward to my really thin layer of semi-frozen rain on the windshield tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 At the end of the day and putting thermals aside, this will just be too dry to be interesting We've been reduced to cheering a snow flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We've been reduced to cheering a snow flake.It's so bad I'd love to cheer a heavy pinger partyNo matter what fall .15 storm total qpf is a snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 32˚/19˚ at KTIM right now. Looking forward to my really thin layer of semi-frozen rain on the windshield tomorrow morning. What do I always say...fix that thing, dude. Actually it may be pretty accurate this time though as LAF went back up to 29 and often runs cooler. Expecting a temporary halt or perhaps a slight dip in temps near onset as we wetbulb, though if the initial surge is heavy then latent heat release may overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just gonna leave this right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just gonna leave this right here... peen.JPG That's pretty ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 What do I always say...fix that thing, dude. Actually it may be pretty accurate this time though as LAF went back up to 29 and often runs cooler. Expecting a temporary halt or perhaps a slight dip in temps near onset as we wetbulb, though if the initial surge is heavy then latent heat release may overcome it. What can I say, it runs a little warm. But you know, UHI and all. Currently 31˚/18˚ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 No matter what fall .15 storm total qpf is a snoozer lol, easy over on that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 .50 qpf easy for ORD. Hourly report for LAF at 9 PM shows 28/22 and 27/22 for FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Down to 27 in city .... 26 out here in county.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 22/11 at YYZ as of 9pm. EC already busted as it had a night time low of 23f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Basically all freezing rain in Kankakee/Newton/Jasper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z NAM throwing out a decent swath of heavy rainfall totals for parts of MO, IL, IN, KY...and then on east. Little chance of breaking it, but the daily precipitation record for IND for tomorrow is 2.82" (1950). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Basically all freezing rain in Kankakee/Newton/Jasper... totp_t7sfc_f13.png And that area persists for a few hours where it sits on this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The models sure jerked Iowa around with this storm. Hopefully some of you guys to the east can get something out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pretty big difference over Indiana on 23z HRRR. Don't think this will be the last of the shifts for the hi res guidance: HRRR.png HRRR continues to chop the southern edge of the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gonna ride my earlier call for the QC of 0.5-1.5", but wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting a little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 22/11 at YYZ as of 9pm. EC already busted as it had a night time low of 23f. KW's forecast is 16f tonight and we're currently sitting at 14f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 HRRR continues to chop the southern edge of the snow band. When you say "chop," do you mean it's shifting the mixing line further north at the precip onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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