Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least it doesn't show lots and lots of GXXXXl... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Would make the third FZRN event here on Sat AM this year.... Our last one was 4mm. Someone is going to get dummied with a ton of it this time, this system will catch many road crews off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Canadian tag team has been most bullish but hard to take it seriously without other support. Probably going to be a nowcast deal as to whether we start with zr. No offense to the Canadians, but their models suck. FYP Atta boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS isn't letting up on the WAA. 850mb freezing line is already overhead by 12z Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Its a shame with so much cold over the last few days it could win over the approaching system. So if the guidance is correct early am temps will break the freezing mark around (8AM). I'll give it two hours perhaps more before the surface temperatures surpass 32. With the onset precip. on the heavier side icing will be a issue. I wonder what the 1inch depth temperature is down to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 No offense to the Canadians, but their models suck. Atta boy. Flipping through the RGEM 3 hourly temps and precip, it's much slower with the progression of the 32F line and looks like there's barely any northward progress with the freezing line in IL/IN between 09-15z Saturday. So because of that, it tries to give us a full blown ice storm. Looks kinda suspicious and not in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Holy smokes, the models have really pulled the rug out from those of us in Iowa tonight. Over the last several runs they've been inching nw and more robust, but tonight they are going all Lucy on Charlie Brown.... weaker, back southeast. Seriously, the parallel GFS has dropped Cedar Rapids to about 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Flipping through the RGEM 3 hourly temps and precip, it's much slower with the progression of the 32F line and looks like there's barely any northward progress with the freezing line in IL/IN between 09-15z Saturday. So because of that, it tries to give us a full blown ice storm. Looks kinda suspicious and not in line with other models. Pretty marginal, but the 0z 4km NAM implies a little icing at the beginning...or just a super miserable cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Pretty marginal, but the 0z 4km NAM implies a little icing at the beginning...or just a super miserable cold rain. 4km nam laf.png I'm leaning toward a little ice at onset, but not the greatest confidence. Temp trends will obviously be crucial. Looks like we'll have sun tomorrow so potential to underachieve on temps during the daylight hours would not seem to be there. Then it comes down to how much of an evening drop we get and how quickly we rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Pretty marginal, but the 0z 4km NAM implies a little icing at the beginning...or just a super miserable cold rain. 4km nam laf.png Ground temps will play a very important role in this one... It will depend more on the liquid temps trying to warm the ground before the air does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like the 0z PGFS went further east with the sfc low and then what becomes the main defo zone/snow swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GGEM black & white maps show not only that the storm has gone back east a bit, but the cold sector precip appears quite weak. The models sure saw something different tonight. Who knows what tomorrow's 12z/00z runs will do. Edit: I'm hearing the more detailed maps still have a few inches of snow for parts of southeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like the 0z PGFS went further east with the sfc low and then what becomes the main defo zone/snow swath gfs_6hr_snow_acc_mc_12.png That'd be decent enough hit for cycloneville. Pulling for that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That'd be decent enough hit for cycloneville. Pulling for that solution. GGEM might even be a little more bullish than the RGEM with ice for us. Lots of precip down by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GGEM might even be a little more bullish than the RGEM with ice for us. Lots of precip down by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 cmc 30 p.png cmc 30 t.png cmc 36 p.png cmc 36 t.png More precip by 12z compared to RGEM but looks warmer so it probably cancels out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This seems much colder to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This seems much colder to me. No, it's just faster with the precip arrival... The 12z GGEM didn't have the gist of the precip arriving until after 18z Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 No, it's just faster with the precip arrival... The 12z GGEM didn't have the gist of the precip arriving until after 18z Saturday... That make sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Unfortunate to see this kind of difference less than 48 hours out. Ignoring the specific amounts, the GFS is similar to the RGEM with icing over a wider area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Tropical tidbits Para-GFS snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z EURO is back SE, with a track near Toledo... EDIT: But it's still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Big difference in IA/WI on this Euro run compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z EURO is back SE, with a track near Toledo... EDIT: But it's still warm. Definitely colder than 12z run. Max temperature Detroit gets to is 37 and most of the time it is 32-34. We get one more dip to the southeast and we could be in for a surprise here if the Euro ends up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Very interesting 0z hi res NMM solution. It's on the SE side of guidance, mostly snow with the front end here then brings another swath of precip through here which is again mostly/all snow during the afternoon on Saturday. While the "main" snow show which has been modeled gets going back to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Definitely colder than 12z run. Max temperature Detroit gets to is 37 and most of the time it is 32-34. We get one more dip to the southeast and we could be in for a surprise here if the Euro ends up correct. I was mainly referring to 850mb, but it would be great if the trend could continues. And the WRF-NMM is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hi res really struggled at this range last go around. Too bullish across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro really weakened that final wave tomorrow night. First call for QCA 0.5-1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Models may have ingested bad data last night. 06z runs more or less reversed whatever SE/colder shift took place on the 00z runs... I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Models may have ingested bad data last night. 06z runs more or less reversed whatever SE/colder shift took place on the 00z runs... I guess we'll see. Possible, but sometimes trends in off-hour runs can reveal a model's tendency to go toward one solution only to have it corrected again when the model is fed raob data. In other words, an erroneous nw bias that gets corrected when the solutions are restrained by higher quality 00z/12z data. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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