A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 front end thump looking heavier and heavier qpf wise, wouldn't be surprised if we start out with a micro period of silver dollars before flipping to liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 re: the ice, IWX mentioned frozen ground down to 5 inches as of today. It was pretty cold recently but there will be a couple days of moderation (relatively speaking) prior to this event, so while I wouldn't be shocked at some lag with surfaces remaining icy as temps crawl above freezing, I doubt it will be one of those like last winter where the pavement was still icy even with temps in the mid-upper 30s. That's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 front end thump looking heavier and heavier qpf wise, wouldn't be surprised if we start out with a micro period of silver dollars before flipping to liquid Definitely can't rule that out, especially if it trends a touch colder. Forecast soundings indicating potential to wet bulb the entire column AOB freezing near onset around your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 front end thump looking heavier and heavier qpf wise, wouldn't be surprised if we start out with a micro period of silver dollars before flipping to liquid Always love watching these situations play out. I remember a front end thump like this a few years ago that was producing monster size flakes over a several hour period over the northern CWA while myself and south was -SN and even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z NAM looks more strung out than 18z. There were big differences in earlier frames at H5 but they seem to have mostly resolved themselves by hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 NAM definitely seems a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z NAM looks more strung out than 18z. There were big differences in earlier frames at H5 but they seem to have mostly resolved themselves by hour 36. All it managed to do was screw some areas out of QPF from the front-end thump. Otherwise, everything else (for all intents and purposes) appears to be the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 All it managed to do was screw some areas out of QPF from the front-end thump. Otherwise, everything else (for all intents and purposes) appears to be the same... Yeah, quite a difference on qpf through 54 hours compared to previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It doesn't really matter at this point... But just for my own curiosity, was there any sampling of the northern stream wave for the 00z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, quite a difference on qpf through 54 hours compared to previous run nam.gif That is a pretty large shift to the south though too, wonder if we will see more shifts out of the models tonight, albeit the NAM was quite a bit to the north to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, quite a difference on qpf through 54 hours compared to previous run nam.gif What I find most awkward is the positioning of the majority of the QPF relative to the placement of the low...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It doesn't really matter at this point... But just for my own curiosity, was there any sampling of the northern stream wave for the 00z runs? Northern stream system is just coming ashore in northern British Columbia at hour 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It doesn't really matter at this point... But just for my own curiosity, was there any sampling of the northern stream wave for the 00z runs? Should've been partial. 12z will have more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What I find most awkward is the positioning of the majority of the QPF relative to the placement of the low...interesting. Last season had a ton of systems like that... So in a way, we're continuing THAT trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like the handling of the main wave(s) in the srn stream is different and they are more split apart early compared to previous runs and this allows what becomes the main srn wave to be a little slower as it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 4km NAM has best snows of around 2-4" from Hawkeye up to Madison. About 1-2" for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 RGEM has been known to amp up so this is kinda interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Final call for Detroit: 1-2" rally of mod/heavy snow at the onset, rapidly transitioning to a cold rain then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Man these models are beyond pathetic this season. What's the deal? Now the new NAMs and the RGEM have a wave moving through this area as early as midnight tomorrow night, with the RGEM showing some accumulating snow potential with it. Up until tonight I haven't seen any model show this first wave ahead of the original first wave that wasn't due to arrive until around 12z sat. EDIT: Here's one example. Look at the difference with the snowfall over northern IL with that first wave at 09z. 12z RGEM 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Man these models are beyond pathetic this season. What's the deal? Now the new NAMs and the RGEM have a wave moving through this area as early as midnight tomorrow night, with the RGEM showing some accumulating snow potential with it. Up until tonight I haven't seen any model show this first wave ahead of the original first wave that wasn't due to arrive until around 12z sat. Yeah, precip onset is trending earlier. Have to see if it holds. LAF even gets a nice shot of Verglas on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, precip onset is trending earlier. Have to see if it holds. LAF even gets a nice shot of Verglas on the RGEM. Haha nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, precip onset is trending earlier. Have to see if it holds. LAF even gets a nice shot of Verglas on the RGEM. It's the first of two lead waves apparently. The models have been under-doing it up until tonight apparently, unless they reverse course tomorrow. Makes a big difference for me. All week the models showed the drive into work early Sat as being clear sailing, but the new lead wave will make it a much more difficult drive. Just aggravating how pathetic these models have been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's the first of two lead waves apparently. The models have been under-doing it up until tonight apparently, unless they reverse course tomorrow. Makes a big difference for me. All week the models showed the drive into work early Sat as being clear sailing, but the new lead wave will make it a much more difficult drive. Just aggravating how pathetic these models have been this year. And with lots of winter left, there is no sign that anything will be changing soon...so I expect the model aggravation to keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, precip onset is trending earlier. Have to see if it holds. LAF even gets a nice shot of Verglas on the RGEM. I'd be pretty surprised if we get any verglas. Heavy heavy pluie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What is verglas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'd be pretty surprised if we get any verglas. Heavy heavy pluie. Canadian tag team has been most bullish but hard to take it seriously without other support. Probably going to be a nowcast deal as to whether we start with zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What is verglas? French translation of Freezing Rain (as shown on the GEM precip type image above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, precip onset is trending earlier. Have to see if it holds. LAF even gets a nice shot of Verglas on the RGEM. At least it doesn't show lots and lots of Gresil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least it doesn't show lots and lots of Gresil... Gresil?! Is that french for sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gresil?! Is that french for *expletive*? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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