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New Years' Weekend Snow Potential


Rainman

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Thread should be renamed New Years' Eve No Potential. :lol:

 

EURO freebie maps over at wunderground are trying to paint in a 4-5" front-end thump on Saturday along the north shore of L Ontario. I have a suspicion that, like the wxbell maps, they're contaminated with PL or ZR.

 

Here's the text output, lol. Temps are metric btw. 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ  ELE=   568

                                            12Z JAN01

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SUN 00Z 04-JAN   0.1    -0.3    1021      93     100    0.13     561     544    

SUN 06Z 04-JAN   1.6     4.5    1011      96      99    0.31     559     551    

SUN 12Z 04-JAN   7.5     8.4     998      95      97    0.50     553     555    

SUN 18Z 04-JAN   4.7    -4.7    1001      77      20    0.04     543     542    

MON 00Z 05-JAN   1.3    -7.9    1006      83      87    0.01     535     530

 

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Was hoping things would trend a touch colder but it isn't to be. Inch or two of white stuff is better than most will get. So can't complain.

The american models have less snow and more PL/ZR, but either way we should see some frozen precip out of this. P-type will largely depend on how aggressive 850-700mb WAA ends up being.

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With the last storm everything was heading west and the storm ended up going east. Still too early to call.

 

Very true.

At least this time someone will get a decent amount of snow this time given more cold air.

 

If there was already snow cover around the setup would be a different story.

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It's pretty hard to trust the models after how bad they've been lately, but it's looking like our best shot of accumulating snow will be with that second wave Saturday night.  Looks like mostly sleet and freezing rain with the first wave, although it may warm just enough to go all rain if some of the models are correct.  That second wave looks pretty potent, so I'm hoping to get a few inches from that Saturday night/early Sunday.  Best snows look to fall from Iowa to Wiscaaaansin.

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From looking at the 12Z Euro I'm thinking DTX is not completely out of the game. A small 75 mile east shift would do wonders... As winter progresses I bet these soakers will in turn become colder and true snow makers.

This is the most optimistic thing I have ever heard. Like a crepuscular ray breaking through an IFR stratus deck, it brought the slightest bit of relief to my bitter snowless heart.

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This is the most optimistic thing I have ever heard. Like a crepuscular ray breaking through an IFR stratus deck, it brought the slightest bit of relief to my bitter snowless heart.

 

We could  always pretend it's going to be all snow with a 1:1 ratio..... :snowing:

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DVN thinking 3-5" in the northwest cwa up by Hawkeye, with a general 1-3" for the QCA.  Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

 

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY... SECOND AND FINAL PIECE OF WINTER STORM SYSTEM
TO LIFT ACROSS REGION IN FORM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKING ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PCPN INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THERMALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW WITH A MIX STILL POSSIBLE FAR
EASTERN CWA. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR FOR
MOST DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES
POSSIBLE) FAVOR THE NORTHWEST CWA CLOSER TO TRACK OF 850-700 MB
CIRCULATIONS AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING
NORTHWEST. SNOW AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH
LOWEST AMOUNTS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY INTO 20-30 MPH RANGE TO MAKE FOR SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IN ADDITION TEMPS TO
CRASH AND WIND CHILLS TO LOWER TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO BY EVENING
NORTHWEST CWA.

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re:  the ice, IWX mentioned frozen ground down to 5 inches as of today.  It was pretty cold recently but there will be a couple days of moderation (relatively speaking) prior to this event, so while I wouldn't be shocked at some lag with surfaces remaining icy as temps crawl above freezing, I doubt it will be one of those like last winter where the pavement was still icy even with temps in the mid-upper 30s. 

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