hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro farther nw and a bit stronger again. Now the heaviest snow is even a bit north and west of me. It's a real nice hit for Wisconsin. I can't afford any further nw shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Now wintery mix in the forecast for very south central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro coming NW again. Central Wisco with a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 With the last storm everything was heading west and the storm ended up going east. Still too early to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 With the last storm everything was heading west and the storm ended up going east. Still too early to call. Even then, the patient was already too far gone to save (the temp profiles never trended cooler/adjusted back SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 For what it's worth (not much at this juncture), 12z NCEP ensembles remain southeast of the model itself. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2015010112.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 For what it's worth (not much at this juncture), 12z NCEP ensembles remain southeast of the model itself. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2015010112.east_coast.single.png They did shift NW from the last ensemble run though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thread should be renamed New Years' Eve No Potential. EURO freebie maps over at wunderground are trying to paint in a 4-5" front-end thump on Saturday along the north shore of L Ontario. I have a suspicion that, like the wxbell maps, they're contaminated with PL or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thread should be renamed New Years' Eve No Potential. EURO freebie maps over at wunderground are trying to paint in a 4-5" front-end thump on Saturday along the north shore of L Ontario. I have a suspicion that, like the wxbell maps, they're contaminated with PL or ZR. Here's the text output, lol. Temps are metric btw. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ ELE= 568 12Z JAN01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 00Z 04-JAN 0.1 -0.3 1021 93 100 0.13 561 544 SUN 06Z 04-JAN 1.6 4.5 1011 96 99 0.31 559 551 SUN 12Z 04-JAN 7.5 8.4 998 95 97 0.50 553 555 SUN 18Z 04-JAN 4.7 -4.7 1001 77 20 0.04 543 542 MON 00Z 05-JAN 1.3 -7.9 1006 83 87 0.01 535 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Here's the text output, lol. Temps are metric btw. Was hoping things would trend a touch colder but it isn't to be. Inch or two of white stuff is better than most will get. So can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Was hoping things would trend a touch colder but it isn't to be. Inch or two of white stuff is better than most will get. So can't complain. The american models have less snow and more PL/ZR, but either way we should see some frozen precip out of this. P-type will largely depend on how aggressive 850-700mb WAA ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 With the last storm everything was heading west and the storm ended up going east. Still too early to call. Very true. At least this time someone will get a decent amount of snow this time given more cold air. If there was already snow cover around the setup would be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On the plus side, it's a good thing this storm shifted the way it did when it did. It would have sucked if many of the NWS branches had issued Winter Storm Watches for nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 From looking at the 12Z Euro I'm thinking DTX is not completely out of the game. A small 75 mile east shift would do wonders... As winter progresses I bet these soakers will in turn become colder and true snow makers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's pretty hard to trust the models after how bad they've been lately, but it's looking like our best shot of accumulating snow will be with that second wave Saturday night. Looks like mostly sleet and freezing rain with the first wave, although it may warm just enough to go all rain if some of the models are correct. That second wave looks pretty potent, so I'm hoping to get a few inches from that Saturday night/early Sunday. Best snows look to fall from Iowa to Wiscaaaansin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z NAM showing front end snow. Usually the front end snow ends up being lighter than modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 From looking at the 12Z Euro I'm thinking DTX is not completely out of the game. A small 75 mile east shift would do wonders... As winter progresses I bet these soakers will in turn become colder and true snow makers. This is the most optimistic thing I have ever heard. Like a crepuscular ray breaking through an IFR stratus deck, it brought the slightest bit of relief to my bitter snowless heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Snow likely wording now in the point for Saturday night. Might squeeze out a few inches here after all, although much better chance into western WI. Then a high of -1 and falling to -13 on Sunday. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is the most optimistic thing I have ever heard. Like a crepuscular ray breaking through an IFR stratus deck, it brought the slightest bit of relief to my bitter snowless heart. We could always pretend it's going to be all snow with a 1:1 ratio..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looking better here now with wetter trending 18z NAM/GFS. I'm currently thinking 2" snow Sat. am ending with a sleet topping and 2" more at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 +ZR at the onset on the 18z NAM. Good thing QPF rates will probably overwhelm the marginal sfc temps so runoff will be strong. This is all assuming the NAM is correct and the warm layer is deep enough. The GFS/Euro go from SN-PL-RN. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/01/another-potential-snowstorm-bites.html Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015! Making weather fun while we all learn,Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 DVN thinking 3-5" in the northwest cwa up by Hawkeye, with a general 1-3" for the QCA. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY... SECOND AND FINAL PIECE OF WINTER STORM SYSTEMTO LIFT ACROSS REGION IN FORM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKING ONNEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THISSHOULD RESULT IN PCPN INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT ANDTHERMALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW WITH A MIX STILL POSSIBLE FAREASTERN CWA. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR FORMOST DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHESPOSSIBLE) FAVOR THE NORTHWEST CWA CLOSER TO TRACK OF 850-700 MBCIRCULATIONS AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDINGNORTHWEST. SNOW AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITHLOWEST AMOUNTS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROMTHE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY INTO 20-30 MPH RANGE TO MAKE FOR SOMEPATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IN ADDITION TEMPS TOCRASH AND WIND CHILLS TO LOWER TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO BY EVENINGNORTHWEST CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18Z GFS says 6"+ more ( we had about 4" of fluff today) is becoming quite likely this weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18Z GFS says 6"+ more ( we had about 4" of fluff today) is becoming quite likely this weekend: Wish I would have planned a Boyne trip this weekend . Always good to see your area get snow even if I get wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18Z GFS says 6"+ more ( we had about 4" of fluff today) is becoming quite likely this weekend: I need a closer, quick ride location... Gotta get northern lower snowpack built up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS places us in the icing zone. Go figure. Has .40 ice on top of us, although that's highly unlikely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Feel like the models are going to jump ship and head back East at the last minute - seems to be the name of the game as of late. Not too excited with that outcome, still won't be snow imby, and if anything - just more icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 re: the ice, IWX mentioned frozen ground down to 5 inches as of today. It was pretty cold recently but there will be a couple days of moderation (relatively speaking) prior to this event, so while I wouldn't be shocked at some lag with surfaces remaining icy as temps crawl above freezing, I doubt it will be one of those like last winter where the pavement was still icy even with temps in the mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.