Kaner88 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z NCEP Ensembles messy here, but heavy majority southeast of the model itself. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2015010100.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Climatology would certainly support significant ice imby... And of course, days leading to the event, teens for highs and single digits for lows - screams ice storm around here. Honestly, I'd rather just have 33° and rain... I don't want to deal with ice again. No snowpack is a plus I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z NCEP Ensembles messy here, but heavy majority southeast of the model itself. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2015010100.east_coast.single.png I think part of the issue with the op run of the GFS is that it takes the storm NNE initially before shifting NE, where as the ensembles look to just move NE. That will be something to watch into Friday, we should know by then if it is going to be on the north or south side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think part of the issue with the op run of the GFS is that it takes the storm NNE initially before shifting NE, where as the ensembles look to just move NE. That will be something to watch into Friday, we should know by then if it is going to be on the north or south side of the envelope.Yeah, rather wide spread with the 0z Canadian ensembles doesn't help either. With the Grinch storm, the storm never really stopped shifting until the ensembles were compact; If I recall correctly, the final westward shift on Dec 23 had some ensemble support, but still a noticeable spread prior to that evening's final eastward haul.CMC Ensembles http://meteocentre.com/tracking/cmc_geps_amer_00/pres_short.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 00z GGEM freezing rain clown map. Halving this would produce a strip of warning criteria ice. 1 or 2 degrees going to make a big difference in the transition zone. ZR_000-096_0000.gif That did shift a bit south. Earlier run had some heavy ice accumulation around here and in southern WI. 0z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ice to rain to snow to bitter cold. Winter taking hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The WAA precipitation slug is looking more and more robust. Ice concern way down. Doesn't appear to be much of a snow maker for anyone outside frankthetank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Good argument against any significant icing in Northern IN by the morning forecaster at IWX: IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBERTHAT FREEZING RAIN IS A SELF-LIMITING PROCESS. A CONTINUAL FEED OFCOLD/DRY AIR IS NEEDED TO OFFSET THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TOFREEZING. THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT AN IDEAL FREEZING RAIN SETUP WITHSURFACE HIGH DISPLACED WELL TO OUR EAST. INITIALLY...EASTERLY FLOWMAY HELP MAINTAIN FREEZING PRECIP FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAYMORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THEREWILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SLOWLYVEERING SURFACE WINDS...LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND A VERY STRONG WARMLAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT TO MENTION SURFACE TEMPS ARE VERYMARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH AND DIURNAL TIMING IS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE. Looks like another forecasting nightmare for LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z NAM coming in slower and further south so far at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z NAM coming in slower and further south so far at hour 48. And warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Snooze city for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Verbatim the 12z NAM has 0.25-0.35" of QPF north of the 401 saturday night with a PL sounding. The next 3 hr frame is shown below. If sfc temps end up verifying 0.5c colder then modelled its +ZR N of the 401. Hour 63 Sounding North of the 401, near YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 New year, same winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Trending towards rain for even moneyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Good argument against any significant icing in Northern IN by the morning forecaster at IWX: IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT FREEZING RAIN IS A SELF-LIMITING PROCESS. A CONTINUAL FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR IS NEEDED TO OFFSET THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO FREEZING. THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT AN IDEAL FREEZING RAIN SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH DISPLACED WELL TO OUR EAST. INITIALLY...EASTERLY FLOW MAY HELP MAINTAIN FREEZING PRECIP FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SLOWLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS...LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT TO MENTION SURFACE TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH AND DIURNAL TIMING IS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE. Looks like another forecasting nightmare for LOT. Indeed about LOT. Though at this point it seems like some type of winter weather headline is a decent bet. All of IN and most of IL looks like it will change to plain rain at this point. I suspect the best chance of not getting above freezing (though certainly not a slam dunk) will be in parts of NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Do you think that Iowa will get the best snows? This past winter we didn't have any major winter snows with the exception of Saturday December 21, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It sure got quiet in here once the models took Chicago and Detroit out of the snowstorm potential. Eastern Iowa through Wisconsin are still in good shape, although even here the GFS/pGFS have above-zero at 850mb through Saturday evening, which would make it tough to accumulate snow during the first surge of moisture. A 3-6 inch defo band overnight Saturday night appears most likely for Iowa. It's at night, as usual, and it's no huge storm, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It sure got quiet in here once the models took Chicago and Detroit out of the snowstorm potential. Eastern Iowa through Wisconsin are still in good shape, although even here the GFS/pGFS have above-zero at 850mb through Saturday evening, which would make it tough to accumulate snow during the first surge of moisture. Makes me wish there were more Iowa posters here besides me and Hawkeye_wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It sure got quiet in here once the models took Chicago and Detroit out of the snowstorm potential. Eastern Iowa through Wisconsin are still in good shape, although even here the GFS/pGFS have above-zero at 850mb through Saturday evening, which would make it tough to accumulate snow during the first surge of moisture. A 3-6 inch defo band overnight Saturday night appears most likely for Iowa. It's at night, as usual, and it's no huge storm, but I'll take it. I don't think any chicago folks looked at this as a snowstorm. Maybe a low level advisory storm which may still pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not really. Looking forward to it Snooze city for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not really. Looking forward to it He meant for all the regulars, although it is questionable whether it ends up being snooze city for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Pretty safe to write off this storm entirely when the typically cold-biased HRW-ARW is warm also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Snooze city for everyone majority of the subforum fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The backlash and single digits temps should be fun He meant for all the regulars, although it is questionable whether it ends up being snooze city for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Considering what this airmass looks like right now, the NAM seems ambitious with low level moistening on Saturday. It looks a little too fast imo, and this would also play in to its surface temp progs. In reality I think dewpoints will be lower near onset, creating a more favorable window for evaporational cooling to try to temporarily offset the waa. So basically I believe the NAM is currently underplaying the ice potential to some degree. The negative factors (less than favorable high position, marginal temps, precip rates possibly becoming too heavy) have been touched on and can't be ignored...with that being said, my early guess is a corridor of a tenth to two tenths of an inch of ice in southern/eastern IA, northern IL, northern IN and over into parts of southern/central MI. Subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 He meant for all the regulars, although it is questionable whether it ends up being snooze city for myself. guaranteed lame for you as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It sure got quiet in here once the models took Chicago and Detroit out of the snowstorm potential. Eastern Iowa through Wisconsin are still in good shape, although even here the GFS/pGFS have above-zero at 850mb through Saturday evening, which would make it tough to accumulate snow during the first surge of moisture. A 3-6 inch defo band overnight Saturday night appears most likely for Iowa. It's at night, as usual, and it's no huge storm, but I'll take it. Well to be fair there is a much bigger Chicago/Detroit contingent here than Iowa I dont mind Iowa seeing snow, as you guys have not had near the fun we have had in recent years snow-wise, not to mention youve been even colder, but even this doesnt look to be a big storm (need to get a cyclone a 6"er). Just havent been able to spin up a significant snowstorm in the region...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Now wintery mix in the forecast for very south central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Assuming the NW trend stops, I'm liking my chances for a few inches of snow.... It was nice to see the Euro come NW a bit last night - hopefully that trend continues at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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