RyanDe680 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's still way too far out to call this for snow, freezing rain or punt it. What's for sure is that it looks like the cold could be here to stay for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Pretty notable changes on the NAM, with a low track over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 NAM seems like it's going to have an earier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Snow area somehow ends up being in the same spot in the NW camp with the different UA evolution and looks like a somewhat front end "thump" as a deformation area doesn't fully develop like on the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Why do folks dismiss the NAM as comical then turn around incorporate into the forecast discussion? Does it have relevance within the last 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z cyclone tracking chart of the CMC + NCEP ensembles averages out to something like the GEFS control member, though nearly half of the Canadian members go for a track just south or over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I've pretty much given up on this one. The only hope here is for a modest front-end thumping, if models are too warm/moist with the initial surge of moisture. Even then, it should only be a 2-4" deal at best before changing to rain. Good luck to you guys further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I know it's the SREF in it's far out range but found this interesting. Some really amped/juiced members with regards to the defo band feature Also a mean of near 4" on the 21z plumes at ORD early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Can't compare to previous runs right now but GFS seems like it may try to come a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Can't compare to previous runs right now but GFS seems like it may try to come a little north. Compared to the 18z, it looks like its a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Compared to the 18z, it looks like its a little west. Certainly some major differences at H5, including a less amplified northern stream at hr 54. Think this may come west, but am skeptical of how the surface reflection is representing H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Can't compare to previous runs right now but GFS seems like it may try to come a little north. It is further north and west, Chicago and Detroit miss most of the snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 pGFS has the same track as the GFS. Pretty much all rain here, while Chicago goes from Ice to Rain to Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like my first call of rain IMBY from a week ago is goin to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z 12k NAM with a left blinker on. WI does well. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Gem is weaker and southeast at 84 hours compared to the 12z run. 1002mb over Detroit vs 995 over Alpena on the 12z run. Southern Michigan with a ton of ice on this run except for the immediate eastern shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sig ice on the 00z GGEM for n IL, n IN, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Take it with a grain of salt since it's all frozen precip but the main axis did shift SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Take it with a grain of salt since it's all frozen precip but the main axis did shift SE gem.png That matches the GEM precip type maps... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Quite a spread on the details at this point. You have the GGEM which slams either side of a GBG-GYY-BTL line with substantial ice. Meanwhile the NAM says "what ice" with the GFS somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z NCEP cyclone tracks chart indicates the heavy majority of members were south of the model itself (though with guidance generally north I'm getting that grasping-for-straws feeling...) http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2014123118.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z Euro is weaker and going through IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z Euro is weaker and going through IN. Looks warmer than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks warmer than 12z. Yeah wintry precip/snow swath is more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 00z GGEM freezing rain clown map. Halving this would produce a strip of warning criteria ice. 1 or 2 degrees going to make a big difference in the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I was thinking it looked a little more amped, per 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 00z GGEM freezing rain clown map. Halving this would produce a strip of warning criteria ice. 1 or 2 degrees going to make a big difference in the transition zone. ZR_000-096_0000.gif Impressive snow swath as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The Euro finally budged tonight, and quite a bit. The heavy defo snow band has jumped much farther northwest and now lays across the southeast half of Iowa. I didn't expect the Euro to completely cave to the GFS/GEM. Now I just have to hope nothing else changes over the next 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 So is the GEM the weakest and furthest southeast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 So is the GEM the weakest and furthest southeast now? Euro is still the furthest southeast, the GEM is the weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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