mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro pretty nice for Chicago/NE IL. ecmwf_slp_precip_mc_17.png You mind posting the map? Also how does H5 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We just saw this movie...ride the king 12z GEFS don't really offer too much support for the amped solutions (although agreement was great last time around and fell apart fast) so it probably means very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 3 runs in a row on the Euro of 33-34˚ and all rain for LAF. We've returned to winter hell after a year/season hiatus. Long live the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 3 runs in a row on the Euro of 33-34˚ and all rain for LAF. We've returned to winter hell after a year/season hiatus. Long live the king. i'll take a picture of my wet inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro total precipitation and snowfall maps. These will self-destruct in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 3 runs in a row on the Euro of 33-34˚ and all rain for LAF. We've returned to winter hell after a year/season hiatus. Long live the king. Kinda doesn't make sense that we'd get nothing wintry on the front end with the track it has (even a bit south of the GFS). I guess if it delays precip long enough then it would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Kinda doesn't make sense that we'd get nothing wintry on the front end with the track it has (even a bit south of the GFS). I guess if it delays precip long enough then it would be possible. the worst of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro total precipitation and snowfall maps. These will self-destruct in 30 minutes. ecmwf_tsnow_mc_21.png ecmwf_tprecip_mc_21.png Texas panhandle and south central Kansas do well with this. Maybe I should've worked for Koch Industries after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro total precipitation and snowfall maps. These will self-destruct in 30 minutes. ecmwf_tsnow_mc_21.png ecmwf_tprecip_mc_21.png Lock it in I'd take 5-6" in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm rooting for a more amped version compared to the Euro, but it's hard to deny the skill the Euro has in this range. Euro solution would be pretty lame in the snow department compared to some of the other models, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm rooting for a more amped version compared to the Euro, but it's hard to deny the skill the Euro has in this range. Euro solution would be pretty lame in the snow department compared to some of the other models, but it is what it is. I would take anything at this point. 0.6" on the season is pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm rooting for a more amped version compared to the Euro, but it's hard to deny the skill the Euro has in this range. Euro solution would be pretty lame in the snow department compared to some of the other models, but it is what it is. Compared to what we have seen in December, 2" would be a respectable storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Almost a redux of the Christmas storm in the sense that the Euro is kinda on its own. Once again will be a challenge for forecasters to sort out if it stays this way in the next few cycles. Commendable talent lies with the meteorologists who are able to pick out the times when a normally superior model may not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Compared to what we have seen in December, 2" would be a respectable storm Lol, pretty sad winter, I have a grand total of 6" snow so far with my biggest "storm" on Nov 16th of 2.0" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Lol, pretty sad winter, I have a grand total of 6" snow so far with my biggest "storm" on Nov 16th of 2.0" lolOnce again, grand total of 0.6" here. Hopefully this storm here can push us over the 1" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Almost a redux of the Christmas storm in the sense that the Euro is kinda on its own. Once again will be a challenge for forecasters to sort out if it stays this way in the next few cycles. Commendable talent lies with the meteorologists who are able to pick out the times when a normally superior model may not be. Right, this time I don't see this continually shifting E and weaker like the last one. Maybe a compromise of the Euro/GEM would be in order (ie. more like taking the average of the GFS Ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 northern vort has a ways to go riding over the top of the pac ridge in the GOA....I am expecting varying solutions to continue for the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Not too large of a "cone" at this range. Just taking a slice at any point, could say anywhere from Michigan City to Dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 northern vort has a ways to go riding over the top of the pac ridge in the GOA....I am expecting varying solutions to continue for the next 48 hours Yes. This is what I've been trying to get at get at for a while. The sampling for this key factor in what plays out still has about another 36 hours to go before it even enters North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still a fairly big range of solutions on the 12z GFS ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Not too large of a "cone" at this range. Just taking a slice at any point, could say anywhere from Michigan City to Dayton yeah...the southern stream looks fairly set-ish....but northern system still has some spread on timing, strength, and location....which, obviously, could provide (or not) some impacts on our southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The inconsistency of the models is giving me flashbacks of the grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 northern vort has a ways to go riding over the top of the pac ridge in the GOA....I am expecting varying solutions to continue for the next 48 hours Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The inconsistency of the models is giving me flashbacks of the grinch storm. If no significant changes occur, this will end up being the Grinch storm part 2, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The inconsistency of the models is giving me flashbacks of the grinch storm. It's totally a deja vu flashback to the grinch storm, the euro won that one being the most south, i got laughed at for riding the euro on that lol was funny when it won, although this time i think the euro will come a little more north like it has been slowly trending a bit more north each run, but I think the GFS and GGEM are still too far north yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro total precipitation and snowfall maps. These will self-destruct in 30 minutes. ecmwf_tsnow_mc_21.png ecmwf_tprecip_mc_21.png Interesting.... This link makes it look like Detroit would be nearly all heavy wet snow http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html I saw the Eurowx.com snow map and it showed like 6-9", and now this wxbell shows very little snow. Regardless, its not important as no track is even close to set, its just going to be an interesting thermals issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 With any luck, we won't have as extensive an amount of convection near the Gulf coast this time around. Always nice when that concern can be eliminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 did michsnowfreak just post the Norwegian? Buckeye would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro total precipitation and snowfall maps. These will self-destruct in 30 minutes. ecmwf_tsnow_mc_21.png ecmwf_tprecip_mc_21.png The ECMWF snowfall maps count freezing rain as snow (all frozen precip = snow) and can't really be used for an event that will contain freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 looks to me like the EE rule is in effect…GFS setting up for another fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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